18/19 Race for Promotion

[Cjay]

3 hours ago, The_Rev said:

 

This is the table since Smith took over. Norwich's run has been insane, ours is pretty good considering the calibre of the opposition, we've played a lot of promotion rivals and a lot of teams in form. We get some 'softer' fixtures next month and everybody above us still has to come to Villa Park. Automatic is still possible. 

Think that table does highlight the issue with "easier runs" and "lesser teams".

We all do it, look at fixtures and see the big names in the top 6 and think "wow thats a hard game, thankgod we have 15th, 16th etc coming up give us a chance to get some easier points". 

But that table shows that for example 15th placed Preston are in better form over a long run of games then 3rd placed WBA or 13th placed QPR are in better form then 4th placed Sheffield United.

You can extend that to 12 games and they both move up 1, QPR are 5th and Preston are 3rd.

Think thats the problem with just looking at the table, very quickly context can be lost.

Wigan were top 3 or 4 at home when we beat them, Blades were 2nd in the form table over the previous 10 games or so when we played them. 

Or your win against Boro, they were what 2nd when you played them? Few more weeks in there current form they could be 8th 9th 10th, people will stop saying "wow Villa battered Boro" and start saying "so what Boro are crap and midtable".

 

[Cjay]

16 minutes ago, Dr_Pangloss said:

It seems to be that the pre-requisite to be a Leeds fan posting on here to post like a total prat and to invent narratives vis-a-vis our expectations for the season. Very few, and I mean, very few on here have 'expected' a top two finish

I provided an example of my point and a scan through  your forum shows that it is a view shared by quite a few and has been called out by other Villa fans calling for caution.

Not all, but not limited to "a few either". 

I invented nothing, the "prat" thing is your view which your entitled to.

[Cjay]

2 hours ago, TRO said:

I think you make some good points....I don't want to agree, due to the rivalry, but I do.

We have some issues and ones that have left us short....but bear in mind we didn't know if we had a football club in July, so preparation was not commensurate with our Motto.

My personal opinion is we still have much work to do on the defensive side of our game and that also impact on Midfield.....I don't think we are balanced in terms of quality, I think the offensive side is much more competent than the defensive side,just my opinion.

I think we are having teams with not much more than brawn, negating us, it concerns me.....not only are we conceding too many goals, we are conceding poor quality ones, we are simply too easy to score against.

We can beat any team in this league, but sadly, they can equally take points of us.....to challenge that must stop.

I accept the January Argument....we need to see What Dean can do....its not nailed on....we have to wait and see.

I am looking forward to the game with you and I think it will be a fine game......congrats on picking up 15 points in your last 5, looking forward to when we can.

 

Thanks.

Glad someone sees my point, it wasnt a wind up or a trolling, was just an opinion based on what ive read here and on social media and what ive seen when watching you.

Can understand it to an extent, you went from staring disaster in the face to having minted owners and a decent manager who the fans can get behind.

Think you're right, broadly speaking if you cant stop conceding then you probably wont get promoted imo.

There will come a time when the goals dry up, there will come a time when you wont be able to score 2 3 4 a game, you may only get 1 and have to hold on to it. It happened to WBA and thats where they fell down. 

They were only scoring 1 a game or even nothing, Blackburn, Hull, Derby etc they all took something of WBA because goals dried up and they just couldn't not concede.

January could fix it but as you say that depends on what happens, or if Dean can set you up well defensively, its not a strength of his.

If you can fix the defence and learn to win ugly then absolutely play offs is definitely possible, top 2 to but its a huge ask.

We havent played that well truth be told, not been poor but not our best. But winning when you dont play great is a pre requisite for promotion, so who knows.

I look forward to the game to, should be a good game, hope we get a decent ref, not to picky not to lenient and hope it doesnt pish it down and make the pitch impossible to play good football on.

[Mark Albrighton]

5 hours ago, Cjay said:

There will come a time when the goals dry up, there will come a time when you wont be able to score 2 3 4 a game, you may only get 1 and have to hold on to it. It happened to WBA and thats where they fell down. 

They were only scoring 1 a game or even nothing, Blackburn, Hull, Derby etc they all took something of WBA because goals dried up and they just couldn't not concede.

January could fix it but as you say that depends on what happens, or if Dean can set you up well defensively, its not a strength of his.

If you can fix the defence and learn to win ugly then absolutely play offs is definitely possible, top 2 to but its a huge ask.

But on the flip side, surely the defence could also get better and conceding won’t be so much of a problem. We actually have a slightly lower goals conceded rate under Smith than we did before he arrived (1.667 per game pre Smith, compared to 1.4 per game since his first game). So while it might not look like it, the defence has improved, at least statistically speaking. And again, it has faced what most would say has been a sterner test.

In fact, just for a further look, if you discount the Forest game, which I think we can all agree was an extreme aberration, that goals conceded ratio becomes one a game under Smith and would put us as one of the better defensive records since Smith’s arrival.

This doesn’t mean there isn’t an issue that needs addressing ASAP, just that it’s not entirely accurate to conclude the defence under Smith is hopeless (admittedly not your description).

Edited December 16, 2018 by Shropshire Lad
Struggled with the maths for 9 divided by 9

[hippo]

If we are talking sweeping all before us, then Notts Forest and Stoke at home have to winnable games   (Stoke are 11th FFS) - Plays offs at best - conceding 2 goals per game isn't going to get you top 2 - play offs has to be borderline TBH. 

[Keyblade]

38 minutes ago, hippo said:

If we are talking sweeping all before us, then Notts Forest and Stoke at home have to winnable games   (Stoke are 11th FFS) - Plays offs at best - conceding 2 goals per game isn't going to get you top 2 - play offs has to be borderline TBH. 

Literally one post above yours it says we're conceding 1.4 goals per game.

Stoke are one of the strongest teams in the league and are just hitting their stride. They are up there with Forest for the best team to visit VP this season.

Drawing with Stoke and Forest (our rivals, one of whom we should have won against) doesn't indicate we're not getting promoted. If we can't beat the Ipswichs and Rotherhams is when we should start worrying.

[Merson08]

After the Stoke game Aston Villa have 33 points out of a possible 66. The final projected points total will currently be 69 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 9th.

There is still 72 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 105 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 76 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (Before Smith) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.8PPG from Smith. Using 1.8PPG over the remaining 24 games.

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 5th. 

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

2 minutes ago, Merson08 said:

After the Stoke game Aston Villa have 33 points out of a possible 66. The final projected points total will currently be 69 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 9th.

There is still 72 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 105 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 76 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (Before Smith) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.8PPG from Smith. Using 1.8PPG over the remaining 24 games.

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 5th. 

Also 5th in the form table.

Just shows we need to step it up if we want to go higher.

[hippo]

6 minutes ago, Merson08 said:

After the Stoke game Aston Villa have 33 points out of a possible 66. The final projected points total will currently be 69 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 9th.

There is still 72 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 105 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 76 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (Before Smith) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.8PPG from Smith. Using 1.8PPG over the remaining 24 games.

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 5th. 

Think this should be a sticky at the top of the thread.  Current points yield is borderline play offs - sure we can strengthen in Jan - but we are picking up a fair quota of injuries -  and Abraham looked absolutely exhausted   in the second half - I really we could hit a major injury crisis as players run themselves into the ground.

[omariqy]

I'd take playoffs right now. I can't see us getting autos with the problems we have at the back. I also think we are week in the centre of midfield. Thor may rectify that.

[Tomaszk]

1 hour ago, omariqy said:

I'd take playoffs right now. I can't see us getting autos with the problems we have at the back. I also think we are week in the centre of midfield. Thor may rectify that.

Only reason I wouldn't is because I'm so confident we'll get them anyway. Maybe unwise.

[Stevo985]

I'm confident we'll be in the playoffs.

I doubt we'll make automatics though. Not out of the question that we make a push for them, especially if we capitalise on an "easier" fixture list in the new year. But I'm not expecting it at all.

[AvfcRigo82]

1 hour ago, omariqy said:

I'd take playoffs right now. I can't see us getting autos with the problems we have at the back.

Hopefully these problems will be addressed and solved after the next 2/3 games that then puts us in with a stronger chance of trying for the autos if possible.

I accept it's a big task at this moment in time with how Leeds and Norwich are going, but can they also keep this up until May?.

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by AvfcRigo82

[TRO]

21 hours ago, villalad21 said:

How can you say we should be a top 2 side when we got one of the worst defense in the league?

Football is not only a game of attackers you need to have your balance right, and reality is we have shitty full backs and keeper that has cost us 10-15 points in games we should easily have won

We also have midfielders who rarely head the ball, with one exception, but he's too slow....its all part of defensive duties.

[Cjay]

19 hours ago, Shropshire Lad said:

But on the flip side, surely the defence could also get better and conceding won’t be so much of a problem. We actually have a slightly lower goals conceded rate under Smith than we did before he arrived (1.667 per game pre Smith, compared to 1.4 per game since his first game). So while it might not look like it, the defence has improved, at least statistically speaking. And again, it has faced what most would say has been a sterner test.

In fact, just for a further look, if you discount the Forest game, which I think we can all agree was an extreme aberration, that goals conceded ratio becomes one a game under Smith and would put us as one of the better defensive records since Smith’s arrival.

This doesn’t mean there isn’t an issue that needs addressing ASAP, just that it’s not entirely accurate to conclude the defence under Smith is hopeless (admittedly not your description).

Fair points.

The Forest game was bizarre and probably would never happen again, clinical from Forest tbf.

I think from his time at Brentford you will improve to an extent not necessarily because Smith is a good coach defensively, but because the style will protect the defence better. 

Having more possession, playing on the front foot, winning the ball high up the pitch. 

If the opposition havent got the ball, they cant shoot.

Its gone to poo for Brentford now but under Smith they averaged the 2nd least shots per game conceded, we are 1st by quite a distance actually.

So imo your probably seeing with the improvement a style based defensive improvement rather then an actual defensive improvement if that makes sense.

[TRO]

19 hours ago, hippo said:

If we are talking sweeping all before us, then Notts Forest and Stoke at home have to winnable games   (Stoke are 11th FFS) - Plays offs at best - conceding 2 goals per game isn't going to get you top 2 - play offs has to be borderline TBH. 

You are right our goals against are not going to get us up.....but we all expect that to be addressed.

so far, for me despite the amount of goals being an obvious concern, more the last 6 games than 10....The manner of them cannot go amiss.

[hippo]

1 hour ago, TRO said:

You are right our goals against are not going to get us up.....but we all expect that to be addressed.

so far, for me despite the amount of goals being an obvious concern, more the last 6 games than 10....The manner of them cannot go amiss.

Sure a new keeper will help. But beyond that ? does he find a better James Chester? Neil Taylor / elmo ?

Personally what we do defensivley is weird ...the full backs are high up the pitch ...the cbs then play slow passes ...which leaves us on the edge.

with Bolasie and El ghazi in the 11 I dont see why the fbs push on to such an extent. change the players if you like ...for me apart from GK , I dont think it will improve much.

I thought Terry was our DC ....that defense doesnt look like his tactics tbh. 

Edited December 17, 2018 by hippo

[Mark Albrighton]

On 16/12/2018 at 13:08, The_Rev said:

 

This is the table since Smith took over. Norwich's run has been insane, ours is pretty good considering the calibre of the opposition, we've played a lot of promotion rivals and a lot of teams in form. We get some 'softer' fixtures next month and everybody above us still has to come to Villa Park. Automatic is still possible. 

Just looking at this table and as you’ve alluded to, of the ten games Smith has been in charge, nine have been against clubs featured in that form table (the only opposition he’s had not in that table is Bolton).

It then comes as no great surprise that those nine games against the other “form” teams is the most compared to the others on that table - Hull and Stoke have played seven of those form teams in that mini league, as will Derby and Forest when they play each other tonight.

Does any of that get us further up the league? Nope. But it does add further perspective of the good work done by Smith and his team so far that we’re fifth in the form guide having played so many clubs who are also in decent to excellent form.

[VillaChris]

I think Leeds will get automatic now.

They had a sticky patch a few weeks back but have now won their last five. Also seems that silly argument of that they'll fall away in the winter which was also levelled at Wolves has been dispelled.

They also have a shed load of injuries atm particularly in defence so I'd say winning 5/5 with half a team missing (Bamford only came back after 3 months out v Bolton) is very encouraging.

TBH I wouldn't begrudge them. They've been away from the premier league for 15 years now so suffered way more than we have.

It's Norwich that will be the vulnerable ones to catch from January for someone.

[TheAuthority]

Forest & Derby drawing is a good result for us.