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Transfer Speculation Summer 2016


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It would have an impact, same way as it has an impact on all imports and exports, and anyone changing currency for their holidays.

That said, this is simply the markets reacting to the result. In a week or 2, they'll be back up again.

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2 minutes ago, Butterfingers said:

The markets haven't opened yet. Last night the £ was at its strongest against the $ for the past 12 months.

Surely anyone planning to invest in big sums of Euros will have planned for this vote and have money banked in Europe as well?

Well I was watching CNN and the last I saw it was at the lowest level since 1985...sooo:wacko:

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1 hour ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Well I was watching CNN and the last I saw it was at the lowest level since 1985...sooo:wacko:

It is now on the back of the result but last night it was the strongest it had been for a year.

It will recover though, until the next time Scotland destabilizes things again with their next "leave" campaign

As far as Villa are concerned, I would expect contingency to be in place to ensure last nights vote won't affect the transfer budget.

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3 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Does this Brexit issue battering the pound piss on our plans btw? Question for the brits!

Well since Doc X's money is the Yuan he should be able to get more bang for his buck!  Or maybe not who knows.

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I guess more importantly moving further forward, with the Brexit vote and the restriction of movement of people throughout Europe that will happen as a result, will we move back to capping the amount of foreign players in the team. This may affect who we target over the coming windows? I wonder what effect that will have on things?

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Will the immigration laws be implemented from the get go or will it be a transitional thing?

Must be hundreds of EU players in the PL and Championship who suddenly doesn't fulfill the criteria for a work permit.

 

Will the people at Sports Interactive be able to implement all the changes in time for the Football Manager 17 release?

And what will happen to Jamie Vardy's snus?!

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16 minutes ago, sne said:

Will the immigration laws be implemented from the get go or will it be a transitional thing?

Must be hundreds of EU players in the PL and Championship who suddenly doesn't fulfill the criteria for a work permit.

 

Will the people at Sports Interactive be able to implement all the changes in time for the Football Manager 17 release?

And what will happen to Jamie Vardy's snus?!

I have read that even though the country has voted out, we will still be part of the EU for a year or two as we negotiate our exit. I would imagine that those here already will be safe, they are not going to start kicking people out. I imagine the rules will have to be changed over a period of a few years to allow teams to bring their squads into order. If it was a an overnight change, then most of the teams would be in big trouble financially as they would be holding players under contract who are ineligible to play for the team.

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http://www.danielgeey.com/what-would-brexit-really-mean-for-the-premier-league/

Good blog by a very good sports lawyer I know.

 

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IMG_3828

What would Brexit really mean for the Premier League?


April 12, 2016

By Daniel Geey and Jonny Madill

In the run-up to the Brexit referendum, there have been a steadily increasing number of articles on the Brexit consequences for the Premier League. This blog sets out our high level thoughts on what we can expect to see down the track should Brexit occur and the consequences for work permits, free movement, quotas and free transfers in the Premier League.

Work Permits and Free Movement

The doomsday scenario suggested by some (such as here and here) is that Brexit would result in a host of players who fail to meet the current work permit criteria.

“More than 100 Premier League players would be affected with Aston Villa, Newcastle United and Watford facing losing 11 players from their squads”.

Whilst this observation is correct, it sidesteps one fundamental principle, namely, that it remains unlikely that the same work permit principles which currently apply to non-European Economic Area (EEA) workers would similarly apply to EEA workers post-Brexit. This is set out below in more detail.

It’s also highly unlikely that any non-UK, EEA players who, for example, are on existing Premier League contracts would suddenly be deported. Not only would it be improbable that such working restrictions would be applied retrospectively but practically it could reportedly take two years (and possibly longer) to iron out the intricacies of what Britain’s relationship with Europe would morph into. Before that time, it would be difficult to imagine how the implementation of any interim regulations could succesfully be put in place given that they may change once any Brexit agreement is concluded.

In any event, such negotiations between a UK government and the EU would no doubt be fraught with problems. This excellent Economist article concludes that:

“To get a feel for the negotiating dynamic, imagine a divorce demanded unilaterally by one partner, the terms of which are fixed unilaterally by the other. It is a process that is likely to be neither harmonious nor quick—nor to yield a result that is favourable to Britain.”

The EU certainly wouldn’t be incentivised to make the transition as smooth as possible. Quite the opposite; such a rigorous, difficult and drawn-out negotiation would be a marker to deter other Member States from thinking (and doing) the same.

Equally, two years may not be long enough to renegotiate Britain’s subsequent relationship with the EU. As a quid pro quo, the EU will want to extract as many substantive concessions regarding the free movement of EEA workers as possible particularly if the British Government aims to receive the benefit of near tariff free EEA trading. This is vital given that (according to the Economist) “almost half Britain’s exports go to the rest of the EU.” As the EU takes almost half of Britain’s total exports, the Government’s priority will  be to ensure such exports are not subject to particular trade tariffs (one of the major benefits of being in the EEA trade bloc) which would make British goods and services more expensive.

Even this is not a straight-line play-off between two of the biggest issues (i.e. tariffs vs free movement), though it does set the scene for the highly complex negotiation that will ensue. For this reason, anyone thinking that it is a foregone conclusion that the same (current) work permit rules that apply to non-EEA players wanting to play in the UK will similarly apply to European players is simply guessing. If the UK government’s priority is to benefit from tariff free EEA trade, degrees of free movement concessions from the UK government are inevitable.

If Brexit occurs, a tiered player immigration approach is likely. The strongest restrictions will continue for non-EEA players (see my blog on the recent changes here). I would suggest (pending the UK government/EU negotiations) that a second, mid-way category is applied where EEA players will be in a more privileged position because of the concessions that the UK government will have to make on various issues. The third category will be UK born players who will be in the most favoured category because of the ease with which they can be employed by clubs.

As such, there may be no immediate short term impact but, in due course, a major overhaul of the work permit regulations for EEA players would be required.

An important additional point to consider is the  FIFA Regulations on the Status and Transfer of Players. Specifically, Article 19  which limits the movements of under 18 year old players. As Marcotti points out, Article 19 permits the “transfers of minors between the age of 16 and 18 within the EU or EEA”. If Britain is no longer in the EU, it would be unlikely to benefit from this exception.

Quotas and the Home Grown Rule

Some have questioned both legally and practically whether if outside the EEA, (and thus not potentially bound by the fundamental Treaty principles around nationality discrimination) nationality quotas could be reintroduced.

Currently, one of the fundamental pillars of the EU Treaty prohibits discrimination in the grounds of nationality. Should Brexit occur, many believe that discriminating against non-UK nationals through for example nationality quotas should be imposed to promote the national team thus exposing more English players to top level football. Premier League clubs would certainly not want to be fettered in their ability to  pick only a certain number of English/UK born players for the simple reason that it would reduce the ease of recruiting top class European players.

There had previously been a FIFA driven proposal for a 6+5 rule to be imposed. That was shot down in part after liaising with the EU because of concerns that such regulations would have been illegal (see here for more detail).  Post-Brexit however, whilst it would be politically difficult for the FA to impose direct nationality restrictions on the Premier League and Football League, it could potentially implement such regulations across its own FA Cup competition.

The previous political compromise between UEFA and the EU was the home-grown player rule (see here for more detail). The rule was drafted in such a way that it did not directly discriminate on the basis of nationality (i.e. where a player was born) but rather where a player trained between the ages of 15-21. Some of the unintended consequences of the rule actually encouraged foreign players to play and be recruited into leagues and academies at a younger age. This had the side-effect of actually displacing young UK born players so ‘foreigners’ would meet the home-grown criteria. In theory, discrimination on the grounds of nationality could occur post-Brexit but again this is somewhat unlikely due to the political compromise that may need to be concluded to allow the UK to benefit from tariff-free or limited tariff trade that would otherwise harm UK exports.

Would free transfers still occur?

The knock-on impact for Britain of no longer being bound by European Court judgements, in certain instances, would be whether cases such as Bosman  (based on freedom of movement at the end of a player’s contract (see here)) would still be applicable. This would in part depend on the legal relationship that is established between the UK government and the EU post-Brexit.

Interestingly, EU law may still  apply to a transfer if there is  an appreciable impact within the EU (e.g. a Member State transfer involving a Member State citizen in or out of Britain). In any event, the Bosman free transfer[1]  principles have already been applied to purely domestic situations (which do not involve issues of EU jurisdiction) (e.g. Campbell to Arsenal; Ings, and McAllister to Liverpool; and Sturridge to Chelsea). As such, it would be unlikely that the FA, Premier League or UK government would rush to impose additional restrictions on the free movement of its citizens or workers employed in the UK in order to prohibit their movement at the end of a player’s contract.

 

[1] For completeness sake, selling clubs whose players are under 24 receive a fee determined by an independent tribunal for domestic ‘free transfers’.

 

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Or this one

http://www.squawka.com/news/what-brexit-could-mean-for-the-premier-league/633952

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English Barclays Premier League

 

What Brexit could mean for the Premier League

By Sanjit Atwal & Greg Johnson at 14:00 on April 1, 2016

 

Britain has voted to leave the EU in a referendum which has divided opinion and shocked the nation to its very core.

As the UK wakes up to a crashing currency and volatile markets – we revisit a piece posted in April which analyses what exactly Brexit means for English football and one of it’s greatest exports – the Premier League.

How could Brexit benefit or hamper the Premier League?

To find out, Squawka spoke to a number of leading experts from inside and outside of the game who told us that leaving the EU would have huge implications for the Premier League in particular.

After all, the “Premier League” is one of football’s greatest commercial success stories. Entertaining, emotive and woven into the very fabric of the nation’s culture and society, it has become a formidable cash cow for the teams, players and businesses that feed off the world’s insatiable interest in the English topflight.

image: http://www.squawka.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/0764991-e1459517447147.jpg

Ronaldo scored 84 times in the Premier League for United.

The Premier League has acted as a proving ground for world class talents like Cristiano Ronaldo and Thierry Henry over the past three decades.

Over the past three decades, the league has seen an influx of talented European footballers who have become idols, cult heroes and emerging talents who have used the Premier League as proving ground before departing for warmer climes as confirmed superstars: Thierry Henry, Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric, to name but three.

From Anthony Martial and David de Gea at Manchester United to Kurt Zouma and Cesar Azpilucueta at Chelsea, the Premier League’s biggest spenders still build their teams around the cream of the continent’s talent pool. However, Brexit would jeopardise this supply line which would cause an inevitable drop in quality and possibly a loss of interest, according to a legal expert.

No more EU wonderkids?

“The best young players are frequently scouted from around the EU and there are good numbers of EU players under 18 years of age at academies here,” said Andrew Osborne, a partner specialising in immigration at Lewis Silkin LLP, a London-based law firm.

“In the event that Britain leaves the EU, young players will not be able to move from the EU to English clubs under the age of 18 years and so clubs here will not have access to a significant pool of talent.

“Young players from the EU are unlikely to be able to qualify for a work permit and so, again clubs here will be limited in the players they recruit.”

image: http://www.squawka.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Brexit.png

The Premier League table as it stands with the number of EU players per club.

The Premier League table as it stands with the number of EU players per club. (Source:Britain Stronger In Europe).

Speaking on BBC News at Six on March 31st, Stoke City chairman Peter Coates offered similar concerns over the potential impact of Brexit.

“We’ve got the best players in the world. And we’ve got access through Europe to those best players. Not to have them is self-evidently very damaging, very damaging, and that’s a real threat to us and we shouldn’t go down that road.”

West Ham Chief Executive and Britain Stronger In Europe board member, Karren Brady has also recently offered her thoughts in a statement on the campaign group’s website:

“The Premier League is the most watched league globally because it boasts some of the most talented players from across Europe and around the world.

“Fans pack stadiums and crowd round screens every week to marvel at the likes of Anthony Martial, Francis Coquelin, N’Golo Kante, and our very own Dimitri Payet. Leaving the EU runs the risk of fans missing out on seeing emerging talents from Europe coming to the play at their clubs and gracing the Premier League.”

A red tape hell…

A Britain that has chosen Brexit would exist outside of the EU ‘freedom of movement’ zone and prospective signings would almost certainly need to apply for visas that would hamper the entire transfer process due to extra delays and red tape.

Daniel Alfreds, from sports law firm Couchmans LLP, told Squawka: “At present, a Spanish or Polish player can be transferred on a Friday and be playing for an English club on a Saturday without any delay.”

image: http://www.squawka.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/reu_2370179.jpg

Poland striker Robert Lewandowski could be one of the big movers in the transfer market this summer. Brexit could be another hurdle to him coming to the Premier League.

Poland striker Robert Lewandowski could be one of the big movers in the transfer market this summer. Brexit could be another hurdle to stop him coming to the Premier League.

In a post-Brexit Britain, however, Premier League clubs would find themselves at a disadvantage against their EU counterparts.

Alfreds continued: “It could cause several issues and uncertainties during transfer negotiations. Many European players may not qualify for an automatic visa, It takes time to receive approval during which a non UK club may poach a player and it can be costly, particularly if the decision is taken to appeal.”

…or a homegrown heaven?

Isn’t a drop in foreign imports exactly what English football needs in order to build up its own talent base? Not necessarily.

Should Britain be cut off from the EU, experts seem to agree that it is highly likely that the Premier League would seek talks with the government to seek an exemption around visa rules for footballers – something that could put it on collision course with the Football Association.

“In the event of a Brexit, it is likely that the FA would be charged with meeting the Home Office to discuss the visa rules which should be applied to European players,” said Leon Farr, a solicitor at sports and entertainment-focused law firm OnSide Law. “However, as much as internationalism is an asset for the Premier League, it can be seen as a hindrance for the FA.”

image: http://www.squawka.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/reu_2114551.jpg

FA Chairman Greg Dyke was made youth development one of his primary concerns.

FA chairman Greg Dyke has spearheaded plans to restrict the amount of non-EU players in English football.

Farr’s view follows on from the thoughts of the FA’s out-going chairman Greg Dyke. In 2015 he stated that “homegrown heroes are fast becoming an endangered species, particularly among the Premier League’s top clubs,” as reported by the Mail, and that the Premier League is in danger of “having nothing to do with English people,” according to BBC News.

Dyke has spearheaded plans to restrict the amount of non-EU players in English football and greatly desires a stronger national team although many of his initiatives, especially the Elite Player Performance Plan, have caused controversy, especially among Football League clubs.

Would Brexit cannibalise the lower leagues?

The feeling for many teams further down the pyramid is that their youth ranks are already over-exposed and raided at will with the cost of running academies having been increased while compensation for player sales has been decreased, and consent for this restructuring sourced by blackmail, according to critics.

If the clubs outside of the Premier League didn’t agree to the plan, their trickle down incomes from the topflight TV revenues would have ceased. Without easy access to European markets, the greatest fears of those below England’s top division could come to be realised, unless the clubs won their battle with the FA.

“IF THE CURRENT WORK PERMIT RULES FOR NON-EU PLAYERS WERE APPLIED THE PREMIER LEAGUE’S BEST PLAYERS MAY NOT BE ON SHOW.”

“If EU players have to meet current work permit requirements then there will be a significant number that cannot qualify to play in England,” Osborne told Squawka.

“This will leave Premier League squads short of players and so clubs will buy and or poach English players from clubs further down the pyramid. Potentially this will lower the quality of squads in the Football League.”

Given that their last run-in with the game’s national governing body saw them get their own way to create the Premier League, the establishment would be likely to blink first once again.

“All of this suggests the FA would resist lax work permit restrictions on European players post-Brexit. The result would be less European footballers in the Premier League, and in particular, less young talent,” continued Farr.

“If the current work permit rules for non-EU players were applied to European players of the past, it is fair to say that some of the best players to have played in the Premier League may not have been on show.”

The potential benefits to the Premier League

With all of this considered, surely the top flight clubs of England should be staunchly against Brexit then? Not quite. It isn’t as simple or straightforward a question as whether to turn a transfer tap on or off at the mains.

The EU are keen to bring down regulatory walls and usher forth the European Single Digital Market – a move that would leave the Premier League out of pocket when it comes to the lucrative digital and audio-visual rights packages it currently sells to EU states.

“Currently the Premier League collectively sells its broadcast rights to individual EU States on an exclusive and territorial basis,” explained Derry Coughlan, an associate at Harbottle & Lewis, a London-based law firm.

image: http://www.squawka.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/4730435.jpg

The Premier Leagues broadcast revenues could be put at risk by remaining in the EU.

The Premier League’s broadcast revenues could be put at risk by remaining in the EU.

“But this model is facing a potential threat from the European Commission’s proposal for a European Digital Single Market with respect to audio-visual products.

“The removal of territorial barriers and the creation of a single EU market may fetter the ability of the Premier League to sell its broadcasting rights on a territorial basis.”

A better deal for Britain, or at least the Premier League?

Back in October 2015, Premier League chief executive Richard Scudamore spoke about why he strongly believes the UK must stay in the EU from ‘a business perspective’ but referenced the threat posed by continuing to integrate with rules on the continent.

“I believe in the free movement of goods, but when it comes to services we must be entitled, especially in the audiovisual world, to territorialism,” he said at the annual convention of the Institute of Directors (IoD) about the business of football.

image: http://www.squawka.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/4506592.jpg

Richard Scudamore

Premier League chief executive Richard Scudamore must ensure the league doesn’t face a lose-lose scenario.

Scudamore’s task is to ensure that the Premier League does not face a lose-lose scenario – earning less for generating the same product or generating an inferior product than leagues in Spain, Germany and France that are suddenly able to snap up the stars no longer as easily accessible to English clubs.

FEATURE: Mourinho & Man Utd are damaged goods but together they can fix each other

The most recent deals with European markets are forecast to bring in approximately £862m of revenue between 2016 and 2019 – a 42% increase in the previous deals, as reported by the Mail. Staying away and trying to manage the fallout of suddenly needing to deal with more bureaucracy to get business done might be the best solution for the league’s bottom line, at least in the short-term.

Investment would be unaffected but Bosmans might be

However, there would also likely to be long-term effects if Brexit were to come to pass, though experts are split on whether the Bosman ruling would continue to apply to British teams:

“Should Brexit happen the Bosman ruling (and potentially other ECJ decisions) will still be indirectly applicable in the UK because they have been incorporated by both FIFA and UEFA into their own rules,” said Afreds.

Whilst Osborne argued: “Bosman potentially won’t apply in England as it’s a European decision. I would expect that we would come up with some other structure to balance contractual stability with restraint of trade.”

One area where the experts do agree is on private investment into sport itself. That would be likely to continue for as long as interest remained high in the competition, its clubs and brands.

“Whilst I do not believe that Brexit is a good idea for the UK or England as a whole I don’t see a potential exit having an immediate impact on investment in sport in this country,” said Michael Broughton, managing partner at Sports Investment Partners and son of former BA and Liverpool FC chairman Martin Broughton.

image: http://www.squawka.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/4677134.jpg

The England has one of the most highly commercialised games in world football, but that would be unlikely to be affected by Brexit.

England is one of the most highly commercialised football nations in the world and that would be unlikely to be changed by Brexit.

“The government has already downgraded its interest in sport now that there are no major international events on our immediate horizon so from that perspective there is little reason to see any changes.

“The wider private investment community will likely continue to see opportunities in the sport and leisure sector. The quality of the content and live nature of it makes it highly engaging and one of the few ways to reach a live audience which continues to be key in all broadcast formats for reaching audiences.”

On March 31st, Britain Stronger In Europe launched their own micro site focusing on how Brexit could effect football in the UK telling users that “a vote to leave the EU could hit your favourite team hard.”

In response, Robert Oxley, a spokesman for Vote Leave, told Squawka:

“EU rules hurt homegrown talent and force us to restrict access to the global talent pool. That’s the worst of both worlds for football fans and the teams they support. If we Vote Leave, we can spend the £350 million we send to Brussels each week on our priorities, like grassroots sport.”

Vote Leave also claimed that it was a flawed assumption that the UK would require foreign national footballers to have a visa, and that in fact if the country were to leave the EU, clubs would be able to select the best and brightest talents without discriminating on the grounds of nationality against non-EU citizens.

If the public decide against staying within the European Union, would the Premier League see more players such as Uruguay’s Luis Suarez join the English leagues in place of players from the continent?

image: http://www.squawka.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/4397342.jpg

Luis Suarez

Would the Premier League see more players like Luis Suarez join the Premier League?

According to Vote Leave, the European Court has prevented the UK from introducing rules to support young, homegrown British players, which they point out both the FA and UEFA consider to be damaging.

However, James McGrory, the chief campaign spokesman for Britain Stronger In Europe, disputes these claims, telling Squawka: “The data clearly shows that leaving the EU could have a substantial impact on the Premier League. On top of that, there are prominent members from within the game like Karren Brady and Peter Coates, who run football clubs, agreeing that a break with Europe would be bad for our clubs.

“STAYING IN THE EU IS GOOD FOR FOOTBALL. LEAVING PUTS ALL OF THAT AT RISK.”

“Football fans want to see the best talent playing in our leagues and our membership of the EU allows that. Leaving would not only impact players, but it could hit fans in the pocket too. Currently supporters travelling to the continent to watch their sides benefit from lower flight prices, compensation for flights, reduced roaming charges and more. A vote to leave could see them lose that.

“It is clear from the data and the experts that staying in the EU is good for football, its players and its fans. Leaving puts all of that at risk.”

It is clear that football is low on the list of priorities for the government, given the resignation of David Cameron and how longed the kicked up dust will take to settle but football is a major part of the UK’s brand and economy abroad so the key players will be watching with peeled eyes.

 

 

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4 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Does this Brexit issue battering the pound piss on our plans btw? Question for the brits!

any small chance of getting a work permit for Kalinic has been squashed now

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8 hours ago, 1958Villan said:

You forget that Grealish, Traore and Green are midfielders and so are unlikely to be considered for the centre forward spot.

They cam play wide in 4-3-3.

Adama.....Bamford.........Ayew

Green       Gestede         Grealish

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10 minutes ago, Zatman said:

any small chance of getting a work permit for Kalinic has been squashed now

Don't think there's any interest in him under this management but yes getting a player like him is going to be at 0% within next two years.

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Jordan Rhodes and a decent keeper will do for me. Other than that, RDM has my blessing to do whatever he likes.

I've noticed that hardly anyone on here has mentioned Carles Gil in either their 'get rid' or 'keep' lists yet hes got bags of skill and is still only 23 so I'd like to see him used a bit more this season.

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