The banker loving, baby-eating Tory party thread (regenerated)

[Demitri_C]

2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

While we're compiling Cameron's Greatest Hits package, let's not forget the War in Libya either. 

Let's not forget bliars war with Iraq which was even worse 

[Mic09]

6 hours ago, Michelsen said:

Seriously? ALL of this is his fault. 

Believe in democracy?

Blame results on a political leader and take away responsibility from the public?

I think we have ourselves an oxymoron.

[El Zen]

1 hour ago, Mic09 said:

Believe in democracy?

Blame results on a political leader and take away responsibility from the public?

I think we have ourselves an oxymoron.

As if Cameron put Brexit to a referendum for reasons that have anything to do with democracy. 

[peterms]

A thread about tory policy towards immigration and foreigners.

It's not just May, she's just one expression of this.

 

[Xela]

Who the frig is Matt Hancock? Or Rory Stewart?

I know i'm not the most up to speed on politics but I've honestly never heard of these people and they are running to be potentially the next PM

[Davkaus]

I work in a healthcare organisation and fairly frequently we're talking about policy, and the health secretary comes up. Every time it's "the health secretary...what's his name....Mike someone?".

He's the most forgettable man in politics. 

[HanoiVillan]

14 minutes ago, Xela said:

Who the frig is Matt Hancock? Or Rory Stewart?

I know i'm not the most up to speed on politics but I've honestly never heard of these people and they are running to be potentially the next PM

Rory Stewart is the candidate of the security services, the Army and Prince Charles. Not that it'll do him the blindest bit of good, mind you, but he's the 'deep state' choice. 

[OutByEaster?]

They've got more people in the leadership race than the human race.

[snowychap]

30 minutes ago, Xela said:

Who the frig is Matt Hancock? Or Rory Stewart?

I know i'm not the most up to speed on politics but I've honestly never heard of these people and they are running to be potentially the next PM

Matt Hancock is the Secretary of State for Health (and social care). He's the new Hunt.

Rory Stewart is the Secretary of State for International Development. To be fair, other than his bizarre anomalous thing about the '80%', he's quite reasonable. Obviously, he's a Tory so he does Tory things, but he at least appears to be a decent(ish) bod with a brain and a history of diplomacy.

Edit: I hope for the country's sake that Stewart were to somehow win (it would take some kind of miracle). He is by far the most sensible and reasonable of all of the Tory candidates.

Edited May 25, 2019 by snowychap

[Demitri_C]

I really really dislike Jeremy hunt. If that weasel wins I'm leaving the country 

[peterms]

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

8 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

I really really dislike Jeremy hunt. If that weasel wins I'm leaving the country 

For comedy reasons it's got to be Liz Truss.  

[ml1dch]

 

 

 

[bickster]

12 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

They've got more people in the leadership race than the human race.

Different species though, The Inhuman Race

[StefanAVFC]

They can't all be this deluded right? There must be something shadowy behind No Deal and they're all in on it.

[HanoiVillan]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but why is everyone so sure Boris is going to win? I have read any number of analyses of the leadership race at this stage, and an absolute majority of them have made clear that he's the strong favourite. At Oddschecker, the market average is about 6/5. There are two main reasons I don't understand the confidence:

1) Less important, but he was the runaway favourite last time and flopped in the MP rounds of voting. 

2) Everybody who matters (in this case, Tory MP's, political journalists and bookies) all seem to be operating under the assumption that Johnson will beat any challenger in the 'final two' membership round of voting. It really doesn't matter if that is actually true yet - what matters it that all the relevant players *believe* it is true. But this creates an incredibly difficult dynamic in a contest structured like this for Johnson. If Tory MP's believe that if Johnson reaches the final two, he is a shoo-in, then it becomes absolutely imperative to vote tactically to prevent him from reaching the final two. This is hardly PHD-level game-theorising, either - as far as I can tell, it's literally what happened last time. 

So why the confidence? What am I missing?

[ml1dch]

6 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Maybe this is a dumb question, but why is everyone so sure Boris is going to win? I have read any number of analyses of the leadership race at this stage, and an absolute majority of them have made clear that he's the strong favourite. At Oddschecker, the market average is about 6/5. There are two main reasons I don't understand the confidence:

1) Less important, but he was the runaway favourite last time and flopped in the MP rounds of voting. 

2) Everybody who matters (in this case, Tory MP's, political journalists and bookies) all seem to be operating under the assumption that Johnson will beat any challenger in the 'final two' membership round of voting. It really doesn't matter if that is actually true yet - what matters it that all the relevant players *believe* it is true. But this creates an incredibly difficult dynamic in a contest structured like this for Johnson. If Tory MP's believe that if Johnson reaches the final two, he is a shoo-in, then it becomes absolutely imperative to vote tactically to prevent him from reaching the final two. This is hardly PHD-level game-theorising, either - as far as I can tell, it's literally what happened last time. 

So why the confidence? What am I missing?

I would say the key point is what is the most important thing for the average Tory MP (or indeed, any MP)? 

Staying an MP.

So, unless you are a leadership contender, or someone with hopes of a nice ministerial job from one of the leadership contenders your interest begins and ends in keeping your local association and constituency voters happy. So unless you have such strong feelings that you are willing to put your dislike of a fellow Tory MP above your own job security then you'll probably go with whoever you're being told gives you the best chance of retaining your seat.

Is that 70, 80, 90% of MPs? No. Is the 40% or so that he needs to get to the final two? Easily.

[Demitri_C]

1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said:

They can't all be this deluded right? There must be something shadowy behind No Deal and they're all in on it.

Oh my help us all if she wins. 

16 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Maybe this is a dumb question, but why is everyone so sure Boris is going to win? I have read any number of analyses of the leadership race at this stage, and an absolute majority of them have made clear that he's the strong favourite. At Oddschecker, the market average is about 6/5. There are two main reasons I don't understand the confidence:

1) Less important, but he was the runaway favourite last time and flopped in the MP rounds of voting. 

2) Everybody who matters (in this case, Tory MP's, political journalists and bookies) all seem to be operating under the assumption that Johnson will beat any challenger in the 'final two' membership round of voting. It really doesn't matter if that is actually true yet - what matters it that all the relevant players *believe* it is true. But this creates an incredibly difficult dynamic in a contest structured like this for Johnson. If Tory MP's believe that if Johnson reaches the final two, he is a shoo-in, then it becomes absolutely imperative to vote tactically to prevent him from reaching the final two. This is hardly PHD-level game-theorising, either - as far as I can tell, it's literally what happened last time. 

So why the confidence? What am I missing?

I think gove will win 

[Chindie]

I'd get a second opinion if Esther McVey said fire was hot.

That she is an MP, and worse, thinks she can be PM, should give hope to the former snail that was crushed on my driveway last night that it, too, could lead the Tory Party.

[HanoiVillan]

27 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

I would say the key point is what is the most important thing for the average Tory MP (or indeed, any MP)? 

Staying an MP.

So, unless you are a leadership contender, or someone with hopes of a nice ministerial job from one of the leadership contenders your interest begins and ends in keeping your local association and constituency voters happy. So unless you have such strong feelings that you are willing to put your dislike of a fellow Tory MP above your own job security then you'll probably go with whoever you're being told gives you the best chance of retaining your seat.

Is that 70, 80, 90% of MPs? No. Is the 40% or so that he needs to get to the final two? Easily.

I think this is too passive. MP's have their own opinions about who will be the most popular leader in the country for retaining their seat. They aren't relying on someone to tell them. Also, their constituency associations never find out who they've voted for, do they? I don't recall this being made public?

You're right that if Boris is the first preference of 40% of Tory MP's then he can't be beaten. But I guess I'm less confident than you are that that's true now.