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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said:

In bold if happens it's over. They can't bridge 10pts in last 3 games. 3pts is enough if Spurs get beaten by Chelsea and Liverpool. Let's go Scouse Pensioners

If we beat Brighton, even just one draw for Spurs against Chelsea would leave them not only needing to gain 9 points in 2 games but also having to overturn a GD of at least 6 (assuming a one-goal winning margin in each of the assumed results) or more likely 7 with our GF. So they'd have to beat Sheffield Utd, City, and Burnley by 2 goals each on average.

Edited by fightoffyour
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1 hour ago, fightoffyour said:

If we beat Brighton, even just one draw for Spurs against Chelsea would leave them not only needing to gain 9 points in 2 games but also having to overturn a GD of at least 6 (assuming a one-goal winning margin in each of the assumed results) or more likely 7 with our GF. So they'd have to beat Sheffield Utd, City, and Burnley by 2 goals each on average.

Spurs could definitely put six past Sheff United alone. I don't think it will matter at that point however.

I'd be surprised if they take more than four points from Chelsea, Liverpool and Citeh. Four points would be enough for us if that's the case.

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1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

Chelsea have an insane record against Spurs at Stamford Bridge. Not far off our record vs Utd at Old Trafford

im sure the commentator vs everton said something like they're unbeaten in 8 games at home winning 7 of them

chelsea should be favourites for that game

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39 minutes ago, Tubby said:

Spurs could definitely put six past Sheff United alone. I don't think it will matter at that point however.

I'd be surprised if they take more than four points from Chelsea, Liverpool and Citeh. Four points would be enough for us if that's the case.

If we can match whatever Spurs do against Chelsea, Liverpool and ManC in our last 3 games, we get 4th place, either it is 0 points, 4 points or 9 points.

I think a win against Brighton will be enough. 

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Funny enough having a look on the Spurs message boards there is a lot of tension and in arguing plus questions around Big Ange they dont seem very confident but then results can change that perspective eg a win v Chelsea

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33 minutes ago, JPAngel said:

On the home stretch now...

image.thumb.png.0a1e60d80f0445255c0e96803f6913ed.png

Taking the emotion out of our last game, that was a good point against a very decent side and it was made even better by Spurs losing at home against their fiercest rivals.

Psychologically, no longer being able to look at the table and say "if Spurs win their games in hand, they'll be level on points with Villa" is a big advantage. Spurs' PPG projection has dropped below 70 points for the first time in a long while and, when you consider the games they have on the horizon, it could very conceivably fall even lower than 69.

As a couple of others have intimated, it feels as though 4th place may already be in the bag - we just need to hold our nerve.

so are you projecting that if the remaining fixtures go like for like compared to last season, Spurs do finish ahead?

 

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22 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

im sure the commentator vs everton said something like they're unbeaten in 8 games at home winning 7 of them

chelsea should be favourites for that game

They are.

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3 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

Plus, their fans actively want to lose to Man City.  Hope the title race is still alive by then.

Was thinking about this on the shitter this morning.
Let's say it's almost certain that Spurs are going to finish 5th, but *might* be able to catch Villa. 

I wonder what their fans would want. 

a) Beat Man City and probably still finish 5th. Arsenal win the title.
b) Lose to Man City and finish 5th but Arsenal don't win the title.

Honestly, I think most would go for b. 

Edited by Delphinho123
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12 hours ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Done in both means we fail to get 4th and knocked out of CL. With Emi, we do both. 

Olsen in goal means we play deeper to protect him and he concedes 2 plus goals in the majority of games he plays

We can still score at the other end though?

I really don't think the second half was much to do with him at all. I mean we had the Brentford second half collapse with Emi in goal so it's very easy to say he'd just save the Gallagher shot when he likely wouldn't.

Great reading some of the forums today, majority of Spurs fans couldn't care less if Man. City beat them to stop Arsenal winning the game so to me that's one less game to worry about in the run in as will be a very flat atmosphere at their ground on the night.

They need to win at Chelsea imo otherwise it's all but over.

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5 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

so are you projecting that if the remaining fixtures go like for like compared to last season, Spurs do finish ahead?

I have just realised I'm one point off in my calculations. Based on corresponding results last season, we would end on 70 points - dead level with Spurs.

image.thumb.png.d3508984a626dde55cdb4cee7435fb68.png

However, that is far from the whole story for a few reasons.

  • We are a far better and more consistent team this season when compared to last season.
  • One of those upcoming fixtures is Palace away. Last season, we played that fixture under Gerrard and lost.
  • Liverpool at home looks to be a very different fixture this season when compared to last.
  • Last season, Spurs drew away at Chelsea and won at home against Man City. If they repeat this, I'd be shocked.

 

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7 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

We can still score at the other end though?

I really don't think the second half was much to do with him at all. I mean we had the Brentford second half collapse with Emi in goal so it's very easy to say he'd just save the Gallagher shot when he likely wouldn't.

Great reading some of the forums today, majority of Spurs fans couldn't care less if Man. City beat them to stop Arsenal winning the game so to me that's one less game to worry about in the run in as will be a very flat atmosphere at their ground on the night.

They need to win at Chelsea imo otherwise it's all but over.

The stress is from all sides, yesterday was even much worse than watching Villa the other day, was stressed more than Arsenal fans probably.

Then now we the semi final, and supporting Chelsea against Spurs. Not sure how I’m to handle all of that. Even without games, we’re worried about Martinez, Youri and Olsen. 

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18 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Was thinking about this on the shitter this morning.
Let's say it's almost certain that Spurs are going to finish 5th, but *might* be able to catch Villa. 

I wonder what their fans would want. 

a) Beat Man City and probably still finish 5th. Arsenal win the title.
b) Lose to Man City and finish 5th but Arsenal don't win the title.

Honestly, I think most would go for b. 

What needs to be remembered is Spurs have played in the CL 7-8 times in the last 15 years so it's simply not the big thing for them it will be for us in qualifying. I think most are just happy they're playing decent football again after the bore years of Mourinho/Conte/Nuno.

Looking at their forums and they certainly don't want "Woolwich" "Goons" "The Flith" winning the league so will be arms crossed and muted response when likes of Son and Johnson are running towards goal in that game for sure.

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6 minutes ago, abdulaziz1 said:

The stress is from all sides, yesterday was even much worse than watching Villa the other day, was stressed more than Arsenal fans probably.

Then now we the semi final, and supporting Chelsea against Spurs. Not sure how I’m to handle all of that. Even without games, we’re worried about Martinez, Youri and Olsen. 

I know what you mean, i couldn't watch the last 5 mins of spurs game!

I think if Spurs took 10 points from whats left - 3 wins/one draw/one loss then they will have done really well and in turn we would need 4 so I remain optimistic that we can get the job done

That Chelsea game feels pivitol though as a negative result could really knock them ahead of  then playing Liverpool Sunday

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