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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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1 hour ago, Sulberto21 said:

Chelsea have the 4th best overall record since the new year allegedly (?)

 

47 minutes ago, Nabby said:

Last  15 Games 

Arsenal 40

City  39

Liverpool 30

Chelsea 26

Villa 25

 

 

 

45 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I thought i saw a table on MOTD last night that had City , Arsenal , Liverpool  , us  and then Bournemouth  in 5th , but i can't remember the timescale they were talking about 

 

You can get a calendar year table on Transfermarkt. Injuries and suspensions plus a volume of games, have definitely impacted us; we're barely a top 6 team by the time all games are played.

Bournemouth's PPG since they won their first game (week 10 I think), would be enough to challenge for fifth.

A very useful resource

image.png.d60d088fca61655a7c9ef46809e76b7d.png

Edited by Tubby
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30 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Well if they draw with Chelsea, Liverpool and City game and beat Burnley by 2 goals. We win against Brighton and lose to Liverpool. They'll be 3 goals behind and 2 points behind.

So if we draw they need to win by 3 or 4 depending on goals scored. 

Same as above except they lose to Liverpool let's say. If we lose to Palace and they beat Sheffield.

Lots of permutations. I just worry a bit about them turning up for a big performance against City in the middle game. 

We just need to keep picking up points in the final games. We land a win and we should be good for 4th.

I don’t think I follow. Both teams played 37 games. Villa gain 3pts for win at Brighton. Spurs gain 3pts for draws against Chelsea, Liverpool and City. Then another 3pts for win at Burnley. 

Villa - 70pts
Spurs - 66pts

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The performance we had against Chelsea feels like ones we've had this season, a bad day where we couldn't get it right and ceded any attempts of control on the game. 

The Spurs game we lost 4-0 seems similar. Where first half was fine from us but it just collapsed in the second half. I think the home crowd is a negative in these big games at the moment.

Hopefully it's isolated performance and we are lucky we got a point and Spurs lost. Brighton are not playing well and are conceding a lot of goals. We can surely be confident in our game plan 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, GENTLEMAN said:

I don’t think I follow. Both teams played 37 games. Villa gain 3pts for win at Brighton. Spurs gain 3pts for draws against Chelsea, Liverpool and City. Then another 3pts for win at Burnley. 

Villa - 70pts
Spurs - 66pts

Yeah you're right. Goes back to my "9 point" scenario.

Any combination of 9 points (us winning points and/or Spurs losing points) and we've mathematically done it.

If Spurs drop 6 points by drawing with Liverpool, Chelsea and City then we only need one win to make those "9 points"

 

This is why i think Spurs will go into that Man City game needing to beat them to stay in the race. A draw or a defeat and it'll be done. If not before

Edited by Stevo985
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2 minutes ago, Pinebro said:

Spurs game against Chelsea will be massive

If they lose that they allow us to have a free hit

Yep, they're in huge trouble if they lose that. Even if they win every game after that we'd still beat them if we beat Brighton and Palace. And that would be worst case for us.
With Spurs having games against Liverpool and City still to go it's more likely we'd only need to win one of those. if that.

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36 minutes ago, Tubby said:

 

 

 

You can get a calendar year table on Transfermarkt. Injuries and suspensions plus a volume of games, have definitely impacted us; we're barely a top 6 team by the time all games are played.

Bournemouth's PPG since they won their first game (week 10 I think), would be enough to challenge for fifth.

A very useful resource

image.png.d60d088fca61655a7c9ef46809e76b7d.png

 

PPG form table still sees us fourth.

It doesn't weight for most recent form, but reaffirms that we are a solid top 8 team despite the injuries, suspensions and game volume.

image.png.a8a6419b5c50ce5b2bcfc9ed6a2225b2.png

 

Edited by Tubby
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Few saying we beat Brighton & Palace, not so sure Palace has become a banker, think the Liverpool game at home is the easier game due to them put the title race & current form 

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8 minutes ago, Lord Willard said:

Spurs are only 5th due to their incredible form at the start of the season. I’m not worried because from game week 10 we’ve been the better side. 

Yeah their form from Game 11 to Game 33 (now) has them 8th.

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7 minutes ago, Talldarkandransome said:

It's simple really

If Chelsea beat them

We beat Brighton 

Scouse beat them

It's all over next Saturday, party on the return coach, Bob's ya uncle, goodnight Vienna, hello champions league

Is Fanny still my Aunt?

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8 minutes ago, Talldarkandransome said:

It's simple really

If Chelsea beat them

We beat Brighton 

Scouse beat them

It's all over next Saturday, party on the return coach, Bob's ya uncle, goodnight Vienna, hello champions league

Sunday*

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32 minutes ago, El-Reacho said:

Yeah their form from Game 11 to Game 33 (now) has them 8th.

This is a good point.  They haven't been playing like a top 4 side since November, whereas we have.

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2 minutes ago, duke313 said:

This is a good point.  They haven't been playing like a top 4 side since November, whereas we have.

When we beat them in November, we went ahead of them by 2 points. They have 2 games in hand on us now and are 7 points behind.

Its been incredibly similar, no?

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1 hour ago, Tubby said:

 

 

 

You can get a calendar year table on Transfermarkt. Injuries and suspensions plus a volume of games, have definitely impacted us; we're barely a top 6 team by the time all games are played.

Bournemouth's PPG since they won their first game (week 10 I think), would be enough to challenge for fifth.

A very useful resource

image.png.d60d088fca61655a7c9ef46809e76b7d.png

That table shows what an amazing result it was at Arsenal. The only game they've lost this year!

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10 minutes ago, bobzy said:

When we beat them in November, we went ahead of them by 2 points. They have 2 games in hand on us now and are 7 points behind.

Its been incredibly similar, no?

From GW11 to GW36 we have 45 points and are 4th in that table, from same period Spurs have 34 points and 10th in the table but have played two games less.  Given that the games they should have played in that period were Chelsea and City, their is no guarantee they would have anymore points in the same period.  

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