viivvaa66
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Interesting to see if he would be the third front-runner that turn Liverpool down.
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If Chelsea is docked points this season, do not mean they are in the clear for next season. Remember the rule is that they can’t lose more than £105mill over 3 season. Now get done for losing £170mill over three seasons; 21/22, 22/23 and 23/24. I do not believe that they will have the income next season, to make the numbers any better over 22/23, 23/24 and 24/25 season, so potentially they get -15points next season too, + maybe additional points for being a serial offender.
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You seems to argue that we need two new CB, one to cover for Pau and one to cover for Mings, unless we find a CB with the skill sets of both Pau and Mings.
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It seems like one after the other is turning down the Liverpool job, they could well end up with Mourinho or Gerrard if they run out of alternatives.
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The question is: “Are Chelsea this bad or are they just missing Cole Palmer?” If Chelsea are this bad, we have to assume Spurs are at least winning 3 more games; Chelsea, Burnley and SheffieldU. That means Saturday is a must win game for us. If Chelsea are missing Cole Palmer this much, let’s pray he is out on Saturday, but back early next week.
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Yes, statistically it is the most likely outcome, but it is not a guaranteed outcome. For some reason, people seams to be confused about this and think it is the same. At the moment is highly unlikely (less than 1%) that Aston Villa is going to win the league, but a few couple of result and it all is turned on its head. ( read: Aston Villa win all our remaining matches and Arsenal, ManC and Liverpool loses all theirs.)
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We need an Arsenal win to ensure ManC haven’t won the league by the time they play Spurs.
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79% is not the same as 100%. It was 21% likely that England didn’t get the 5th spot. Of course the % swung when the results are known. If the result had been more as expected, the % had increased from 79% to maybe 95%. Same as when the result was unexpected. The chances of getting heads both times in two coin tosses are 25%, so it’s 75% chance to not get heads both times. When the result from the first coin toss is known to be head, the % will swing to 50/50. This is not meaningless, it’s just a complete misunderstanding on how probability works.
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The chances for that to happened is about 20%, so nothing really wrong with prediction.
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When you have heard the same joke 100 times, it isn’t funny anymore.
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If Spurs manage to beat Burnley and SheffieldU, then they would have the same number of points as us. But then Spurs need to match the number of points we get from Chelsea, Brighton, Liverpool and Crystal Palace in their games against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and ManC. In my mind we have the advantage here, I can’t really see Spurs getting to 70 points, while I sort of expect us to manage to get 70+ points.
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If we end up in pot 4, it would make a difference to the teams that are drawn against us, since they get a stronger opponent than what would have been expected from pot 4. It is likely that there will be teams that are in the “wrong” pot, like this season Feyenoord was in pot 1 and Newcastle was in pot 4. The group stage draw will play a role in the chances to progress into the knockout stage, but being drawn against 8 teams, it should even out somewhat. Again what pot we are in, would not make a difference to us.
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This season the top ranked team historically gets around £32mill, next season that would be reduced to around £9mill. While performance related prize money is estimated to go from £513mill this season to £812mill next season. Just qualify group stages for CL next season will get us £15.9mill, and if we get knocked in the group stage we get an additional £0.9mill, meaning we are guaranteed £17.8mill, even if we lose every group match. As a side note, winning the FA Cup gives you £2mill. If we are really good and win all 8 group matches we will get £25.5mill + the £15.9mill. In other words we can still get some serious money from being in CL, even if we are ranked low.
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It’s 10 years. The 36 teams in the groups stage will be ranked based on the coefficient over the last 10 years. Next year the top ranked team get 36 shares of the historical ranked bonus, second team get 35 shares, and so on, and the last ranked team get 1 share. A share for next season is estimated to be worth around £250,000. Aston Villa is currently ranked as the 81st club by UEFA, so don’t expect much of this bonus. To get a decent return we need to win a lot of group matches and progress deep into the knockout stage.
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I believe the expression “flogging a dead horse” would be appropriate to use in this situation.
