WHY Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 9 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Probably yes, although that would leave us 2 pts ahead with the run ins looking like this: Villa: West Ham (A), Wolves (H), Man City (A), Brentford (H), Arsenal (A), Bournemouth (H), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H), Palace (A) Spurs: Fulham (A), Luton (H), West Ham (A), Forest (H), Newcastle (A), Man City (H), Arsenal (H), Liverpool (A), Burnley (H), Shef Utd (A) Have highlighted the "Sky 7" (inc Newcastle) in red. Both of us have 4 fixtures against the Sky sides, although I think our Chelsea home game is a better bet than Spurs' Newcastle away game. I think Spurs have easier fixtures from the other games - Luton H, Forest H, Burnley H, Shef Utd A are the 4 relegation battlers. We could really do with Spurs dropping points against Fulham or West Ham, who should be well up for it in London derbies. IMO it'll go right down to the wire. Main thing is we both need to keep Man Utd out of the mix. Spurs also have Chelsea away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Rev Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 This is probably already in the thread somewhere but for my own sanity the points tally of the club finishing 4th: 22/23 - Newcastle - 71 21/22 - Tottenham - 71 20/21 - Chelsea - 67 19/20 - Chelsea - 66 18/19 - Tottenham - 71 17/18 - Liverpool - 75 16/17 - Liverpool - 76 15/16 - Manchester City - 66 14/15 - Manchester United - 70 I can’t see sixty something being enough for 4th this year, it might get 5th and the bonus spot if England get the coefficient but 11 games to get 20 points and I’ll be happy. We just need to keep ticking along at the rate we have been since Unai arrived at the club. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHY Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 If we can somehow win our next 2 games we would be 11 points clear of Spurs before they play again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 I think the question should be Conference and 5th, or 4th. I’d take the first as it will most likely get us to CL. Let’s see what happens in Manchester derby tomorrow which hopefully ends with City beating Utd. That would give us a bit of a space to breath, and focus on Ajax and Spurs. For now I’d focus on the Ajax game, can’t underestimate them and we don’t really make it easy for ourselves whoever we play. Also hope for other English teams to do well while more German teams to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackbauer24 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Some seem to suggest we should gamble with weaker teams in Conference to put focus more on chasing Chanpions League qualification in league. However, surely doing our best to win Conference is just as key to that objective; winning the competition gives us more chance of securing CL as it adds to England's coefficient scores for that fifth place. Although I highly doubt it's this simple/straightforward - surely there's a mathematical scenario where by winning the competition puts us in CL and losing in the final leaves us 5th and England missing out on the extra CL spot! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 6 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said: Some seem to suggest we should gamble with weaker teams in Conference to put focus more on chasing Chanpions League qualification in league. However, surely doing our best to win Conference is just as key to that objective; winning the competition gives us more chance of securing CL as it adds to England's coefficient scores for that fifth place. Although I highly doubt it's this simple/straightforward - surely there's a mathematical scenario where by winning the competition puts us in CL and losing in the final leaves us 5th and England missing out on the extra CL spot! Yes, there has been all along a tendency for people to quote the percentage chance given to England securing the 5th Champions League spot as if that chance is independent from how we do in our competition, but in fact the percentage is only as high as it is because we are favourites for the Conference League, if we were to lose it would most likely drop several percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aston_Villan4 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 5 hours ago, DJBOB said: We need to put Wolves away. If we can do that, expected wins against BOU and Brentford, we have to cobble 6 points in 7 other matches. Obviously more to a game than one person but Wolves will be without Hwang so that should tilt the odds even more in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 hour ago, Aston_Villan4 said: Obviously more to a game than one person but Wolves will be without Hwang so that should tilt the odds even more in our favor. Neto went off injured today as well. Hopefully it’s a nasty one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turvontour Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Positively too is that looking at our remaining fixtures, it could be that realistically a lot of teams we have to play in the coming months haven't really got much if anything to play for, other than league position. Likes of Palace, Brentford, Bournemouth, Wolves, Chelsea, Brighton etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaAlex Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 I might be wrong here but if Man City get to the FA Cup semis, their game with Spurs will be postponed and moved to midweek, and Spurs potentially face the gruelling Man City, Arsenal matches in 4 days like we did back in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheltenham_villa Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 6 hours ago, abdulaziz1 said: I think the question should be Conference and 5th, or 4th. I’d take the first as it will most likely get us to CL. Let’s see what happens in Manchester derby tomorrow which hopefully ends with City beating Utd. That would give us a bit of a space to breath, and focus on Ajax and Spurs. For now I’d focus on the Ajax game, can’t underestimate them and we don’t really make it easy for ourselves whoever we play. Also hope for other English teams to do well while more German teams to fail. Wouldn't we want a draw in the city game, both teams close to us. We can look up the table rather than at a team 11 points behind us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 9 minutes ago, cheltenham_villa said: Wouldn't we want a draw in the city game, both teams close to us. We can look up the table rather than at a team 11 points behind us We’re not getting anywhere near City or Liverpool. We *may* catch Arsenal but even they are playing extremely well at the moment. It’s a race for 4th I’m afraid. I actually think we could win every game between now and the end of the season and potentially not win the league. Such is the form of the top 3 atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheltenham_villa Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 4 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said: We’re not getting anywhere near City or Liverpool. We *may* catch Arsenal but even they are playing extremely well at the moment. It’s a race for 4th I’m afraid. I actually think we could win every game between now and the end of the season and potentially not win the league. Such is the form of the top 3 atm. Achievable or not, the mindset to chase those above you is better than worrying about someone 11 points behind you. I'm trying to think like Unai, I'm convinced he is only looking upwards 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
picicata Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 58 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said: It’s a race for 4th I’m afraid. I actually think we could win every game between now and the end of the season and potentially not win the league. Such is the form of the top 3 atm. Bet you didn't think you'd be writing that at the beginning of the season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 If we don't sort out the defensive issues we could easily see us lose quite a few more games. Watkins scorching form is keeping us scoring more than the opposition. 4 wins and 3 draws should be enough for guaranteed top 5. That gets us 70 points If United lose today that means they need to win 9 or remaining 11 to get to 71 points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Need twenty points from the remaining eleven games to beat our best ever Premier League points total of 74 points, but that was achived when there were forty-two games in a season, to beat our best thirty-eight game season total, we need another ten points, which unless something goes very wrong we should do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leeroy Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 We need to be looking to beat Spurs. Yes, a draw is fine and suits us better than them but they aren't all that and we are at home so three points should be the goal. If we beat them we would be 8 points clear of them having played one game more, but their game in hand is Chelsea away which they likely drop points in. I think if Pau and Konsa start and Digne comes in for Moreno we have a good chance of beating Spurs. If Ramsey is out I'd bring Diaby in for him given his quality in the final third. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Steve Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 There's a lot more pressure on Spurs than us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 3 hours ago, VillaAlex said: I might be wrong here but if Man City get to the FA Cup semis, their game with Spurs will be postponed and moved to midweek, and Spurs potentially face the gruelling Man City, Arsenal matches in 4 days like we did back in December. Didn’t work out too badly for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewieGriffin Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Some mad talk in this thread. We arent even mathematically safe from relegation yet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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