Local council elections 2022

[rjw63]

4 hours ago, sparrow1988 said:

Don't the conservatives receive more in donations per year from dead people (last testaments stating that state so and so much be donated to them per year) as opposed to from living people? Or have I dreamt reading/hearing this?

No idea! 

[ml1dch]

Obviously I know it's not meant to be taken seriously, but blimey.

 

[Genie]

better than expected, no words.

[Davkaus]

"Better than expected". Some people will read this complete bullshit and believe it.

I used to be naïve enough to think that a Free Press was a good thing.

[chrisp65]

To be fair, it’s better than I expected. I had £20 on them being down to 3 councillors and then 2 of them self immolating live on Good Morning Britain.

[bickster]

I give up. Sky and the BBC have Labour up 65 seats in Wales. I just counted all the Labour Gains in Wales and got 70

I chose Wales because it was the easiest

The problem being I'm having to use the Guardians Indivdual Council results because Sky and the BBC don't show them

[Nicho]

11 minutes ago, bickster said:

I give up. Sky and the BBC have Labour up 65 seats in Wales. I just counted all the Labour Gains in Wales and got 70

I chose Wales because it was the easiest

The problem being I'm having to use the Guardians Indivdual Council results because Sky and the BBC don't show them

Its absolutely nuts that people think the BBC is agressively left wing supporting in its management and delivery of news. 

[bickster]

RIght so next, I've gone through every Council UK wide and counted the Labour gains and losses in my head and got +253, the Guardian say +252. I'm prepared to think I was one out somewhere

Which now makes me think the Tory loses on the Guardian site are more or less correct as long as the breakdowns of each council are correct, so I'm going to have to argue that the others are now over representing the Tory losses too

[rjw63]

2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Im glad the lib demitri have done well today

Well that's a surprise 

[Xela]

13 minutes ago, bickster said:

RIght so next, I've gone through every Council UK wide and counted the Labour gains and losses in my head and got +253, the Guardian say +252. I'm prepared to think I was one out somewhere

You need a new hobby

 

[paul514]

17 hours ago, Seat68 said:

It's apparent from a single result that Labour won, that come general election, based on that single result, that Labour won, Labour would lose a general election? 

It was from the changes in seats at that point which played out when I checked the results at about 2pm this afternoon as well.

I'll guarantee you right now that the conservatives win in 2024

[paul514]

17 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I presume you are suggesting that a +3.8% increase in Labours vote replicated across the UK wouldn’t be enough to win the election?????

That’s true.  But also a flawed piece of analysis.  If you already hold a high percentage of the vote in a seat you will find it harder to increase that percentage than parties with a lower percentage.  
 

At its simplest - a party with a 99% share of the vote can only improve by 1%.  You can’t say that it’s been a disaster because they “only” improved by 1%.

Huh? Vote share increase is irrelevant in local elections its about seats. Labour is well known to pile the votes high in particular areas it doesn't get you more seats it needs to be spread wide.

[fruitvilla]

1 hour ago, Mark Albrighton said:

England -347

Wales -82

Scotland -63

So that would be a loss of 486 for the tories across the UK as it stands. 

I am having trouble with this new maths.  

[blandy]

16 minutes ago, paul514 said:

Huh? Vote share increase is irrelevant in local elections its about seats. Labour is well known to pile the votes high in particular areas it doesn't get you more seats it needs to be spread wide.

Labour won in 2955 seats, Tories 1331 seats. Are you sure of your conclusion, Paul?

[paul514]

17 minutes ago, blandy said:

Labour won in 2955 seats, Tories 1331 seats. Are you sure of your conclusion, Paul?

Yes! Absolutely certain, you need to look at the gains to see the move in support not the total number. Up 52 seats............ Blair was up 2000 before his 97 victory.

What you can see below is people not voting as much for the ruling party but critically not moving to the opposition as they find them unpalatable for some reason.

They are protest voting hence the lib dem and green gains 

Also just looked up the total numbers of councillors on wiki and it says 20k

1. LAB2,212(Labour 2,212 councillors),+52(52 councillors gained)
2. CON1,041(Conservative 1,041 councillors),-341(341 councillors lost)
3. LD711(Liberal Democrat 711 councillors),+191(191 councillors gained)
4. IND145(Independents 145 councillors),+28(28 councillors gained)
5. GRN113(Green 113 councillors),+60(60 councillors gained)
6. RA51(Residents' Association 51 councillors),+10

Edited May 6, 2022 by paul514

[markavfc40]

Bless em the DM have made zero mention of the Tories losing 400 odd seats on their front page. Like if they don't mention it then it didn't happen. They are only preaching to the blind and can't be helped  though and these council results hopefully suggest the right wing  media influence is waning. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by markavfc40

[Panto_Villan]

3 hours ago, bickster said:

To the first part, yes they are remarkably bad results for the Tories but the idea that they already lost some marginal councillors last time isn't really relevant, what they've actually done is lose a hell of a lot of councillors elected in 2018, which was a year they already didn't perfom well in. It's actually much worse than you've painted it. They had a low bar to begin with in this election cycle and they've managed to lower it much further

Indeed, that's what I was saying (or trying to say). It's not like they had loads of vulnerable councillors they were defending because they'd previously had a good year. They'd already lost all them last time. They've taken heavy losses in areas you wouldn't expect them to because people are apparently waking up to how much of a shitshow this government has been.

And that's great. The Tories are going to win power again at some point in the future so hopefully they'll draw the conclusion that flouting the law and the sort of right-wing populism Boris is peddling is a vote loser, as well as being bad for the country.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Panto_Villan

[Jareth]

Gonna need more than a VT expert to decide which of the BBC/Sky and the Guardian have the right numbers - who would that be? 

[Sam-AVFC]

6 hours ago, Mark Albrighton said:

This is not what selling off social housing stock to wealthy 20-somethings was meant to do!

[TheAuthority]

6 hours ago, Jareth said:

Gonna need more than a VT expert to decide which of the BBC/Sky and the Guardian have the right numbers - who would that be? 

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