Local council elections 2022

[Demitri_C]

Im glad the lib dema have done well today

[Demitri_C]

2 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

These are remarkably bad results given that that the Tories had already lost a bunch of the marginal councillors at the previous round of local elections. They've now got less than half as many seats as Labour, and the Lib Dems aren't *that* far behind them.

It very much seems the public doesn't find Boris funny any more.

Was he ever funny?

[chrisp65]

I was driving past St Albans this afternoon as it happens and an old lady of about 93 shouted ‘we routed the tory scum!’ And everyone on the M1 cheered.

[ender4]

Serious question - are the results bad enough to give an strong argument that the Tories would lose at the next general election in a couple of years time?

Reason I ask that is:

- Tories had such a big majority that the swing would have to be massive.

- Mid-term elections are always bad for the current government and then they always swing back when it gets to general election time.

- A govt that’s been in power so long will have more bad local results than a new government.

- People forget about the bad stuff in a year or two.

So based on those points, isn’t this just normal?

[bickster]

21 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

These are remarkably bad results given that that the Tories had already lost a bunch of the marginal councillors at the previous round of local elections. They've now got less than half as many seats as Labour, and the Lib Dems aren't *that* far behind them.

It very much seems the public doesn't find Boris funny any more.

To the first part, yes they are remarkably bad results for the Tories but the idea that they already lost some marginal councillors last time isn't really relevant, what they've actually done is lose a hell of a lot of councillors elected in 2018, which was a year they already didn't perfom well in. It's actually much worse than you've painted it. They had a low bar to begin with in this election cycle and they've managed to lower it much further

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Serious question - are the results bad enough to give an strong argument that the Tories would lose at the next general election in a couple of years time?

Yes but like I was saying yesterday somewhere, it's unlikely that Labour will get a majority, so it's very pleasing to see that the LibDems are having the resurgence they need to be able to take enough seats so that Labour don't need to do deals with the SNP

[bickster]

There's something in the air in Neath Port Talbot (Yes I know) what the hell happened there. Labour and Plaid both losing seats to some Indies (And a LibDem and a Green)

[OutByEaster?]

It seems the Tories started from a poor position following bad results at the last local elections, then got some poor results at the outset of this voting, which has grown progressively worse as the votes have come in. Good.

I think this result is bad enough to put Johnson off this idea that the papers have been floating about having an early election before the economic crisis really hits and I think if he's not calling a quick election, he'll do well to try to maintain any public support as the sitting Prime minister when it does hit. 

I think it's an election that suggest Labour would form a minority government - but perhaps the biggest message it sends is to the Tory party - Boris is a dead man walking.

[bickster]

16 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Mid-term elections are always bad for the current government and then they always swing back when it gets to general election time.

They are but in this instance Labour had a high bar and jumped over it, The Tories already had a low bar and won the limbo dancing competition

[bickster]

5 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

It seems the Tories started from a poor position following bad results at the last local elections

The last elections aren't relevant. The elections 4 years ago are relevant because those are the seats that were up for grabs and 4 years ago was pretty much peak-Corbyn Labour made many gains, the Tories lost lots in 2018.

Just to clarify I mean they aren't relevant to the specific losses happening today

[OutByEaster?]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

The last elections aren't relevant. The elections 4 years ago are relevant because those are the seats that were up for grabs and 4 years ago was pretty much peak-Corbyn Labour made many gains, the Tories lost lots in 2018.

The last elections at comparable seats. Have there been elections for these positions in which the Tories have done better since then?

 

[bickster]

7 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

The last elections at comparable seats. Have there been elections for these positions in which the Tories have done better since then?

 

Yes most elections since

Last year for example they were +235

2019 Both teams were down

[OutByEaster?]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

Yes most elections since

In these positions?

Surely if you've got a position for a councillor and you have an election for it and then some time afterward, you have another election for it, you can compare the two?

 

[bickster]

7 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

In these positions?

Surely if you've got a position for a councillor and you have an election for it and then some time afterward, you have another election for it, you can compare the two?

 

Yes thats exactly what I'm taking about 2018, even looking at 2014 the previous time these seats we up for grabs as a measure of how the bar was already high for Labour in this cycle

2014 Labour were up 324 seats then the next time of this set of seats in...

2018 Labour gained another 79 (again the bar was already quite high) now this year as it stands right now with more to come...

2022 Labour are another 252 up

EDIT: I looked back even further to 2010...Labour gained another 417

So you see how very high the bar was on this cycle?

[Mark Albrighton]

The BBC have their numbers going across the screen and it says

England -347

Wales -82

Scotland -63

So that would be a loss of 486 for the tories across the UK as it stands. 

A few people on twitter are posting similar to back this up.

@bickster, I expect to a bit of discrepancy but not by this much. And IF they are right, I’m slightly surprised by the sort of shrug of indifference to the results that I’m seeing when a loss of 300-400 was being touted by some as the upper limit of expected losses.

 

[OutByEaster?]

23 minutes ago, bickster said:

So you see how very high the bar was on this cycle?

I do. In fact that's what I said. I agree with you, I've been agreeing with you from the start.

The Conservatives started from a bad place because their previous results weren't good, they got worse and have been getting even worse as results have come in - which is good.

 

[OutByEaster?]

I think there's a hastily constructed veil of indifference being lead by the BBC so as not to spook the Tory voters.

It won't fool the party though - I think they'll have Boris out on the back of these results.

[bickster]

12 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

@bickster, I expect to a bit of discrepancy but not by this much

I might have to start a spreadsheet on half a bottle of wine here

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I think there's a hastily constructed veil of indifference being lead by the BBC so as not to spook the Tory voters.

It won't fool the party though - I think they'll have Boris out on the back of these results.

Typical BBC their current headline in the live page is basically Tories lose shitloads, LidDems Huge gains its absolutely laughable

[OutByEaster?]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

Typical BBC their current headline in the live page is basically Tories lose shitloads, LidDems Huge gains its absolutely laughable

They stopped using numbers to describe the losses a little earlier this afternoon.