The AVFC FFP thread

[QldVilla]

6 hours ago, sne said:

Money finds a way and I doubt a salary cap would change anything or even work.

It works in other sporting competitions. In the NRL in Australia each team has to submit the players contract/wages for approval and they have a specialist salary cap auditor who keeps track of each team and undertake random audits of clubs finances. It’s not perfect but keeps the competition relatively even and then comes down to the coaching, which is the way it should be.

[Wurzel]

I watched a very dour Gregg Evans on The Villa View 1874 podcast claim that we are close to breaching FFP and that we might need to sell a few players. Any of you boffins on here understand this stuff and cast light on the situation at the moment?

 

[Captain_Townsend]

He was ridiculously negative.  

[ender4]

26 minutes ago, Wurzel said:

I watched a very dour Gregg Evans on The Villa View 1874 podcast claim that we are close to breaching FFP and that we might need to sell a few players. Any of you boffins on here understand this stuff and cast light on the situation at the moment?

 

We’ve spent £32m/5 = £6.4m on transfer fees for the year.  Plus 2 lots of extra wages at say £15m. That’s £21m extra annually. Whilst that’s a chunky increase, surely we can’t be that close or we wouldn’t have spent on a CB when we have bigger priorities.

We should earn anywhere between £10-20m extra from being in Europe, so that makes me feel we still have wriggle room for 1 more big signing. 

Edited June 30, 2023 by ender4

[Lerner's Driver]

It was a weird, awkward vibe on that show, for sure, Evans clearly didn't want to be there!

He was adamant in stressing the point that it was unclear to what extent the owners would stick to the promises they had made to Emery.

At one point, when Bardell was pushing the opposite, saying there definitely is money to spend, he said, "I believe, no I know, Villa have to be really careful because things are quite tight with FFP right now."

I don't think Greg Evans is the brain of Britain, or even an expert on FFP, but he did seem strangely insistent in raising questions about Villa's financial buoyancy at the minute.

They are usually pretty pally those two in pushing the everything is rosey line, so his hard line almost seemed like he was sharing something he knew wouldn't be popular, but he had to do it. Probably nothing, but it does make you wonder.

Either way, his content is always pretty uninspiring. 

[tomsky_11]

Not close as far as I can tell and have posted previously on here. We’d have to go some to get into trouble given Grealish sale is still contributing to the calc.

Can’t be arsed to listen to whatever Gregg had to say so no idea if he’s given any indication as to how he thinks we are close.

 

[tomsky_11]

On 13/06/2023 at 22:32, tomsky_11 said:

With sales of only £25M for senior returning loanees, and bringing in 4 players for combined £100M on around £100K a week average, I've got us with 23/24 adjusted losses in the £40-50M range. So no urgent need to sell any of the first team players suggested.

I’d guess we’ve used up £35M of the £100M and half the incoming salary budget but no sales yet. Probably still leaves us around the £50m adj losses range for 23/24 as it stands, with likely capacity for almost double that.

[villan-scott]

I remember seeing some talk on here about the limit being set at 5 years for spreading transfer cost but the poster couldn’t find confirmation. Only been confirmed now in the last day or 2, so will stop Chelsea from carrying it on!

 

[CVByrne]

7 hours ago, Wurzel said:

I watched a very dour Gregg Evans on The Villa View 1874 podcast claim that we are close to breaching FFP and that we might need to sell a few players. Any of you boffins on here understand this stuff and cast light on the situation at the moment?

 

Yeah it was a bizzare episode. He was very negative and it was hard to see what his point was. We are in a string FFP position and I'm sure we'll bring on 20m+ from player sales too.

We've been over this in detail in this thread working it out from our accounts. When you factor in the increased prize money for 7th and the new PL overseas money increase.

Then the new sponsorship deal, raised ticket prices. European football and more games next season. Means revenue to increase again. 

We've the headroom to work in. Especially as next summer is a prime time for a lot of player sales from academy as we've 5 good prospects who will have had 2+ years of plans to Championship and decisions to be made.

For this summer we can sign another two 30m+ players and move on 20m+ and we're fine. 

[Demitri_C]

1 hour ago, villan-scott said:

I remember seeing some talk on here about the limit being set at 5 years for spreading transfer cost but the poster couldn’t find confirmation. Only been confirmed now in the last day or 2, so will stop Chelsea from carrying it on!

 

Bit late as usual

[CarryOnVilla]

If FFP was an issue at the club, we’d get some hints of it by now. Isn’t today FFP deadline day, and we haven’t had many rumours about other clubs after our players and we haven’t had any roumours about Villa trying to push our key players out. Just our bomb squad players. 
 

there’s no sense of panic stations from the club at all… unlike a Chelsea who are asset stripping some major money, just in time for FFP deadline day.

Villa are fine

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by CarryOnVilla

[Jareth]

We're not luring Monchi if there's even a sniff that his hands will be tied - he said so himself.

[alreadyexists]

29 minutes ago, Jareth said:

We're not luring Monchi if there's even a sniff that his hands will be tied - he said so himself.

Or Emery initially to be honest.

[ender4]

5 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

I’d guess we’ve used up £35M of the £100M and half the incoming salary budget but no sales yet. Probably still leaves us around the £50m adj losses range for 23/24 as it stands, with likely capacity for almost double that.

The only thing i can think off is that the Grealish leeway drops away for the 23/24 season, yet all the players we sign this summer will still be here in terms of salary and amortisation. So next summer might be really tight and if we don't get a massive bump from Europe & commercial, we might need to sell to buy next summer.

[QldVilla]

Had a chance to listen to GE, he was over the top with his negativity, he just banged on that it is tight and we needed to move some players on. We all know there is some dead wood there, but that is part of the reason why Monchi was brought in.

I thought it was interesting that he used Chuck as a reason why we had to sell for FFP reasons, but he didn’t want to sign a contract and had 12 months left on his contract. 

Very weird commentary.

[CVByrne]

Lets get some numbers

We'll go with Salary / Amortisation / book value

Sanson -        2.5  /    3.5       /    7.0

Naka -          1.7  /    2.0       /    2.0

Davis -         2.3  /    0.0       /    0.0

Traore -        4.0  /    4.2       /    4.2

Hause -         2.6  /    0.0       /    0.0

So for the 23/24 season if we kept all the players around it would cost us about 22.8m in cost for FFP purposes

If we sold any of the players the sale price minus the book value is what we book as profit or loss in the accounts. We also don't have the cost of the wages either

So if we sold them all for say 30m we would book 16.8m in profit and "save" 22.8m in cost = ~ +40m in FFP terms

Now obviously last season we loaned all of those players out so if we combined the fee's and salary contribution we'd take that off the 22.8m annual cost. So say we got 12m in total in our accounts for last year would be 22.8 cost and 12m income = -10.8m in FFP terms

[Wurzel]

Me trying to understand your post, my math is not great.

 

[david-avfc]

Worth noting on FFP, for the last 4 years or whatever we’ve been building a PL squad, our transfer amortisation has been increasing every year. But we’re now at the stage where the first group of players to sign are starting to roll off the books so our transfer amortisation won’t be moving as fast in one sole direction. Next summer Wesley, Traore, Nakamba will be released, that’s at least £50m of transfers off the book in one go, and if we sell any of them this year then even better for the accounts. Also when we renew contracts like Mings and Watkins (when it inevitably happens), the annual amortisation calculation gets reset against a lower initial book value so a reduced FFP cost

[MrBlack]

5 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Lets get some numbers

We'll go with Salary / Amortisation / book value

Sanson -        2.5  /    3.5       /    7.0

Naka -          1.7  /    2.0       /    2.0

Davis -         2.3  /    0.0       /    0.0

Traore -        4.0  /    4.2       /    4.2

Hause -         2.6  /    0.0       /    0.0

So for the 23/24 season if we kept all the players around it would cost us about 22.8m in cost for FFP purposes

If we sold any of the players the sale price minus the book value is what we book as profit or loss in the accounts. We also don't have the cost of the wages either

So if we sold them all for say 30m we would book 16.8m in profit and "save" 22.8m in cost = ~ +40m in FFP terms

Now obviously last season we loaned all of those players out so if we combined the fee's and salary contribution we'd take that off the 22.8m annual cost. So say we got 12m in total in our accounts for last year would be 22.8 cost and 12m income = -10.8m in FFP terms

Sadly I think we'd be lucky to sell them for 15m, let alone 30m.

But even then, its a price worth accepting for them given the salary savings it releases. Really important to sell as many of these as possible (or loan them out at full salary).

[alreadyexists]

I hate FFP. And I hate that it’s seemingly optional for the rich. And I hate that it’s made me use the word ‘amortisation’