The AVFC FFP thread

[Nigel]

Anyone outside of that very top tier would be all for it, that includes Chelsea; Not even Boely wants to compete head to head with a countries wealth.

1 hour ago, duke313 said:

 

So, it's not going to have any impact at all then then unless the TV money goes down drastically.

Waste of time.

Even if the limit is set this high, it is a limit. Who knows what could happen to costs if you have 3 countries fighting for the same players.

[paul514]

Quick question what our allowed losses limit this season according to the last accounts?

[paul514]

3 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

Quick thought after watching the link….

they are right the PL is the best league solely because of its competitiveness.

that competition isn’t based on who wins but the fact that pretty much any team is capable of beating another so results aren’t a forgone conclusion in a given match.

the lowest teams in the PL and out compete most clubs in Europe financially so that won’t change.

UEFA’s 70% rule im not particularly against as again it will allow us to put compete the foreign leagues still.

I also like the idea of less of the increases of revenue going to the players.

I’ve seen data in the past showing how every time there is a new tv deal almost all of it goes to player wage increases which when they are paid such obscene amounts already isn’t needed.

that money could go to lowering the cost for fans to see a game or building better facilities.

say it quietly but even making a yearly profit for owners something that should be a given when they are running a business that turns over so much cash each year. 
however having said all of that I don’t think we need a PL wage cap, for the reasons given at the start of this post.

id also like to throw this one into the mix which I probably put on this forum on a bi annual basis.

a few years ago I saw a Tifo video on YouTube on the future of PL broadcasting.

it convinced me that it won’t remain with existing broadcasters for too long.

it set out two alternative providers…..

1. Online streaming services like Amazon who could easily double the amount of tv revenue that is currently received.

option 2 was far more interesting.

the pl stops selling rights completely and sets up its own international broadcasting company with local tv hosts and keeps the money for themselves. This showed that clubs would probably receive at least 1 billion a year EACH from tv rights 

[MrBlack]

18 minutes ago, paul514 said:

Quick thought after watching the link….

they are right the PL is the best league solely because of its competitiveness.

that competition isn’t based on who wins but the fact that pretty much any team is capable of beating another so results aren’t a forgone conclusion in a given match.

the lowest teams in the PL and out compete most clubs in Europe financially so that won’t change.

UEFA’s 70% rule im not particularly against as again it will allow us to put compete the foreign leagues still.

I also like the idea of less of the increases of revenue going to the players.

I’ve seen data in the past showing how every time there is a new tv deal almost all of it goes to player wage increases which when they are paid such obscene amounts already isn’t needed.

that money could go to lowering the cost for fans to see a game or building better facilities.

say it quietly but even making a yearly profit for owners something that should be a given when they are running a business that turns over so much cash each year. 
however having said all of that I don’t think we need a PL wage cap, for the reasons given at the start of this post.

id also like to throw this one into the mix which I probably put on this forum on a bi annual basis.

a few years ago I saw a Tifo video on YouTube on the future of PL broadcasting.

it convinced me that it won’t remain with existing broadcasters for too long.

it set out two alternative providers…..

1. Online streaming services like Amazon who could easily double the amount of tv revenue that is currently received.

option 2 was far more interesting.

the pl stops selling rights completely and sets up its own international broadcasting company with local tv hosts and keeps the money for themselves. This showed that clubs would probably receive at least 1 billion a year EACH from tv rights 

With BT losing so much money from their purchase of TV rights, I don't see the bidding process continuing in the same way and the prices continuing to go up.

They've seen the limit they can make from selling the games to the public,  and it doesn't cover the cost of buying the rights to the games.

If Sky broke down their income by stream they'd probably find football was a loss making venture for them too.

The likes of Amazon may well end up buying more. They already have their prime music unlimited service.  Prime sport unlimited incoming.

 

Edit:

In terms if the impact this has on clubs and their spends, the more money the PL get for their rights, the more money the clubs receive. The higher that cap moves up. Not sure setting it above what anyone hits at the moment will really help us, but it might make the situation not get any worse. 

But how could it be any worse than a Man City that wins the league every year.

Edited June 13, 2023 by MrBlack

[tomsky_11]

44 minutes ago, paul514 said:

Quick question what our allowed losses limit this season according to the last accounts?

For 22/23 almost all the £105M. Prior two periods (three seasons because of covid) we only have a small adjusted loss, less than £5M.

I reckon we are probably at about £30-40M adjusted losses for 22/23. We lose the covid seasons from the calc (loss of £25M) for 23/24 so I'd guess we'd have about £85-95M spare adjusted loss capacity for 23/24.

Edited June 13, 2023 by tomsky_11

[MrBlack]

2 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

For 22/23 almost all the £105M. Prior two periods (three seasons because of covid) we only have a small adjusted loss, less than £5M.

But if we want to target that it does mean we basically need to sell another Grealish within the next 3 years. Obviously, that can be spread out over the three years, but as a pure academy sale, he leaves a big hole for us to fill from next seasons rolling calculations.

I suspect we'll go big still, and cover losses over the next couple of years with a few sales of academy players. We definitely have the leeway to spend large amounts on whoever we think we need though. 

[tomsky_11]

6 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

But if we want to target that it does mean we basically need to sell another Grealish within the next 3 years. Obviously, that can be spread out over the three years, but as a pure academy sale, he leaves a big hole for us to fill from next seasons rolling calculations.

I suspect we'll go big still, and cover losses over the next couple of years with a few sales of academy players. We definitely have the leeway to spend large amounts on whoever we think we need though. 

Yeah sure, it's a simplistic view of the extent of the limits. We won't push close to it this season, but I'd still expect us to use some of the additional scope we have while we can to push for a higher league position and therefore better revenue down the line.

[sne]

Money finds a way and I doubt a salary cap would change anything or even work.

Edited June 13, 2023 by sne

[paul514]

58 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

For 22/23 almost all the £105M. Prior two periods (three seasons because of covid) we only have a small adjusted loss, less than £5M.

I reckon we are probably at about £30-40M adjusted losses for 22/23. We lose the covid seasons from the calc (loss of £25M) for 23/24 so I'd guess we'd have about £85-95M spare adjusted loss capacity for 23/24.

Just so I am clear the year that is being cleared from the accounts has a large deficit and therefore we would be entering the new year with a minus -20m? Therefore you have 85m for this season 

[ender4]

1 hour ago, tomsky_11 said:

Yeah sure, it's a simplistic view of the extent of the limits. We won't push close to it this season, but I'd still expect us to use some of the additional scope we have while we can to push for a higher league position and therefore better revenue down the line.

I guess the only issue with doing that is that is what Everton did - spent loads and thought it would buy them increase revenue with European football… it’s a dangerous game if you don’t get it right and succeed in the first attempt.

[duke313]

1 hour ago, paul514 said:

Just so I am clear the year that is being cleared from the accounts has a large deficit and therefore we would be entering the new year with a minus -20m? Therefore you have 85m for this season 

Might need to sell somebody

Digne
Cash
Dendoncker
Chambers

And even Buendia or Bailey.

Not all of them obviously, but 2 or 3 along with Sanson, Nakamba and Davis.

 

[tomsky_11]

5 hours ago, paul514 said:

Just so I am clear the year that is being cleared from the accounts has a large deficit and therefore we would be entering the new year with a minus -20m? Therefore you have 85m for this season 

Yes covid period average was £25M adjusted loss.

With my estimate for 22/23 we'd be at losses of £10-20M for the first two assessment periods, leaving £85-95M of allowable adjusted losses in 23/24 before we hit the limit.

[tomsky_11]

4 hours ago, ender4 said:

I guess the only issue with doing that is that is what Everton did - spent loads and thought it would buy them increase revenue with European football… it’s a dangerous game if you don’t get it right and succeed in the first attempt.

Not looked at their figures in a while but from what I remember they were way past what we we're spending on transfers and salaries relative to revenue. We aren't even close to the limit and certainly won't be even with a decent summer of incomings.

[paul514]

11 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

Yes covid period average was £25M adjusted loss.

With my estimate for 22/23 we'd be at losses of £10-20M for the first two assessment periods, leaving £85-95M of allowable adjusted losses in 23/24 before we hit the limit.

Ok so FFP wise that allows us to spend a lot

[tomsky_11]

4 hours ago, duke313 said:

Might need to sell somebody

Digne
Cash
Dendoncker
Chambers

And even Buendia or Bailey.

Not all of them obviously, but 2 or 3 along with Sanson, Nakamba and Davis.

 

Huh? With sales of only £25M for senior returning loanees, and bringing in 4 players for combined £100M on around £100K a week average, I've got us with 23/24 adjusted losses in the £40-50M range. So no urgent need to sell any of the first team players suggested.

[tomsky_11]

Just now, paul514 said:

Ok so FFP wise that allows us to spend a lot

Yes, though 1) pushing it too far does make things more difficult the following season unless we see dramatic revenue increase (ie Champions League) or profitable sales, and 2) we've also got the UEFA rules to contend with, which perhaps restrict us further.

Either way, I'm fairly sure we could do what we need this summer without going too overboard. £100M on four players on decent salaries isn't a major risk and should add enough quality to have us competing for at least Europa League places. Especially given we've already secured the first of these four players on a free.

[paul514]

4 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

Yes, though 1) pushing it too far does make things more difficult the following season unless we see dramatic revenue increase (ie Champions League) or profitable sales, and 2) we've also got the UEFA rules to contend with, which perhaps restrict us further.

Either way, I'm fairly sure we could do what we need this summer without going too overboard. £100M on four players on decent salaries isn't a major risk and should add enough quality to have us competing for at least Europa League places. Especially given we've already secured the first of these four players on a free.

I would be more worried about the UEFA wage cap than the loss limits.

[tomsky_11]

13 minutes ago, paul514 said:

I would be more worried about the UEFA wage cap than the loss limits.

We'll be fine for it this season. Like FFP, the following year will be more of a push.

[MrBlack]

13 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

We'll be fine for it this season. Like FFP, the following year will be more of a push.

Is that because the limit comes down another notch?

Will only affect us if we're still in Europe, and assuming we are is like to presume it's because we're in the Europa League and likely to have a further increase in revenue to help.

[tomsky_11]

Just now, MrBlack said:

Is that because the limit comes down another notch?

This plus I believe the contribution from player sales is a three year average, so like with FFP we lose the Grealish sale from the calc.