The AVFC FFP thread

[CVByrne]

Just now, KMitch said:

Not many outside of the Premier League does, to be fair.  I don't believe anything I read with regards to FFP calculations by anyone on Twitter or VillaTalk because they don't know what they're talking about.

All I know is that Emery and Alemany wouldn't come to Villa if there wasn't significant funds available to build.  

I'm sorry but FFP isn't complicated. Lots of people know how it works. It really hinges on understanding player amortisation and how that hits annual accounts. 

[Frodo]

11 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said:

If you hear anyone mentioning "net spend" in relation to FFP, you can safely disregard everything they say. Basically they have no clue how football accounting works. 

you know how to ruin a weekend 

[tomsky_11]

On 11/05/2023 at 17:12, Czarnikjak said:

Yes, this checks out with my estimations.

Same

On 06/03/2023 at 16:50, tomsky_11 said:

I reckon 22/23 for FFP could to look something like the following:

This was back at start of March and I based it on 11th place finish so should be able to add at least £7M to this.

If correct, would take adjusted losses in 23/24 above £(90M) in order for us to have any immediate issues with FFP.

[thunderball]

43 minutes ago, KMitch said:

All I know is that Emery and Alemany wouldn't come to Villa if there wasn't significant funds available to build.  

This.

They didn’t come here for a fire sale or some middling ambition. The club barely spent in the Winter window knowing there would be a big summer in a sellers market rather than the January buyers market.

It all points to a serious window of big ambition and transformative arrivals. 

As has been pointed out FFP is about accounts not net cost player transactions (which is only one part of it), also as he keeps pointing out Purslow helped write the manual on FFP so I am sure they have it covered. They smell blood and an opportunity with Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea looking at squad renewal and uncertainty amongst the old “top 6”. You get the feeling that Villa, Newcastle and Brighton are genuinely coming up the inside like Arsenal did this season. Its going to look very different next season with a Big 10 looking a possibility. 

[Hank Scorpio]

19 minutes ago, thunderball said:

This.

They didn’t come here for a fire sale or some middling ambition. The club barely spent in the Winter window knowing there would be a big summer in a sellers market rather than the January buyers market.

It all points to a serious window of big ambition and transformative arrivals. 

As has been pointed out FFP is about accounts not net cost player transactions (which is only one part of it), also as he keeps pointing out Purslow helped write the manual on FFP so I am sure they have it covered. They smell blood and an opportunity with Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea looking at squad renewal and uncertainty amongst the old “top 6”. You get the feeling that Villa, Newcastle and Brighton are genuinely coming up the inside like Arsenal did this season. Its going to look very different next season with a Big 10 looking a possibility. 

See I don't buy this massive spend idea.

Everywhere Emery has worked he has created teams on lower budgets to that of the established "bigger" teams and competed over and above the level you would expect through his management and coaching skills.

I expect the same here. We will invest at the level of a team just outside the top 6 always has. We are banking on Emery to coach and mould a team and structure to overperform and get us into the top 6 mix. 

[allani]

5 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

See I don't buy this massive spend idea.

Everywhere Emery has worked he has created teams on lower budgets to that of the established "bigger" teams and competed over and above the level you would expect through his management and coaching skills.

I expect the same here. We will invest at the level of a team just outside the top 6 always has. We are banking on Emery to coach and mould a team and structure to overperform and get us into the top 6 mix. 

We won't spend money for the sake of spending money - but we seem to be investing an awful lot of time and effort in finding alternate revenue streams (Alemany, the guy from the USA) so that we have access to more funds than other teams just outside the top 6.  I don't think we will be competing against with the Sly 6 to sign superstars - but I can see us spending good money on players that Emery / Alemany think have the potential to be next level.  But neither appear to suffer "prima-donnas" lightly - so players will be signed to adapt to the system rather than to rip up the guidebook.

[thunderball]

33 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

See I don't buy this massive spend idea.

Everywhere Emery has worked he has created teams on lower budgets to that of the established "bigger" teams and competed over and above the level you would expect through his management and coaching skills.

I expect the same here. We will invest at the level of a team just outside the top 6 always has. We are banking on Emery to coach and mould a team and structure to overperform and get us into the top 6 mix. 

I didn’t mention a “massive spend”. It’s the calibre of player we are going for that will be different to what we are used to. I have no idea what we can or will spend but it will be ambitious, our owner are ready to go up a gear or two having put a huge investment into the club to date.

[Mark Albrighton]

Despite it being a few years of me taking a cursory glance at the workings of financial fair play, reading the posts by those who follow it, trying to build a broad picture from the likes of the Price of Football/Swiss Football Twitter accounts…my understanding and general response to FFP is still essentially the same as Cat’s understanding of his and his crew mates situation in this clip.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

2 hours ago, thunderball said:

I didn’t mention a “massive spend”. It’s the calibre of player we are going for that will be different to what we are used to. I have no idea what we can or will spend but it will be ambitious, our owner are ready to go up a gear or two having put a huge investment into the club to date.

Oh no I was agreeing with you in general I just quoted you as the last post in error

[ender4]

£157m TV money this season for Villa, up from £122m in 2021/22.

The coming season should get an extra £10m TV/merit only if we win the Europa Conference.

[tomsky_11]

5 hours ago, ender4 said:

£157m TV money this season for Villa, up from £122m in 2021/22.

The coming season should get an extra £10m TV/merit only if we win the Europa Conference.

Where has the £157M been confirmed? I saw an aggregated tweet but not the source. I'd estimated about £151M.

£10M from Europa should be about minimum if we get the group stage I think. Spurs I believe got around £10M for failing at that stage a few seasons back. Getting to the latter stages should be more like £15-20M

[tomsky_11]

Have just adjusted my estimates for 22/23 and 23/24 based on the above and get the following:

Revenue

22/23 - £220M

23/24 - £240-245M

PL FFP adjusted profit/(loss)

22/23 - (£37M)

23/24 - (£50M)

PL FFP adjusted profit/(loss) 3 year cumulative (threshold £(105M))

22/23 - £(40M)

23/24 - £(65M)

UEFA squad cost ratio estimate

23/24 - 93% (cap 90%)

My 23/24 estimates are based on a 7th place PL finish and a reaching latter knockout stages (QF/SF) of Europa Conference, selling/releasing Sanson/Nakamba/Davis/Young/Traore/Steer/Hause/Wesley for combined £25M, and spending around £100M on 4 players at £100K pw. For squad cost I've assumed 75% of our employee cost is for players and head coach, based on limited info I can find on reasonable PL average for this.

If any of this is at all accurate, then from a PL FFP perspective we are very comfortable for this season and next, but looks like we'd be pushing the limits of UEFA rules (UEFA I think allows €60M losses over 3 seasons, though not sure how comparable the PL FFP adjusted figure is to this), though perhaps not by much so should be able to get within the rules while still spending.

The biggest issue we might have is going to be 24/25 when:

- we lose the Grealish money from the 3-year assessment period

- the other two years as it stands look like making losses beyond the average annual threshold for the PL rules, nevermind UEFA's tighter limits.

- the UEFA squad cost ratio cap reduces to 80%

The two biggest ways we could offset this will be:

- Selling, especially youth for decent money relative to their first team role, eg. like Chukwuemeka sale

- Champions League qualification

Beyond that, establishing a more settled squad, promoting youth, and relying less on transfers will also help.

 

 

[CVByrne]

Interesting part of FFP going forward is going to be player sales. These are key one off boosts to your annual FFP when there is profit involved. Furthermore contracts with lots of performance based incentives mean our income to wages will be mostly a fixed number with income rising on performance and wages too. 

Nakamba, Traore, Sanson, Davis, Chambers are all assets we need to maximise income on. 

[ender4]

2 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Where has the £157M been confirmed? I saw an aggregated tweet but not the source. I'd estimated about £151M.

£10M from Europa should be about minimum if we get the group stage I think. Spurs I believe got around £10M for failing at that stage a few seasons back. Getting to the latter stages should be more like £15-20M

Various sites are reporting it... here's one: https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/premier-league-prize-money-confirmed-30101958

Quote

1 Manchester City £170m
2 Arsenal £167.8m
3 Manchester United £165.5m
4 Newcastle United £163.4m
5 Liverpool £161.2m
6 Brighton £159m
7 Aston Villa £156.8m
8 Tottenham Hotspur £154.6m
9 Brentford £152.4m
10 Fulham £150.2m
11 Crystal Palace £148m
12 Chelsea £145.8m
13 Wolves £143.6m
14 West Ham £141.4m
15 Bournemouth £139.2m
16 Nottingham Forest £137m
17 Everton £134.8m
18 Leicester £132.6m
19 Leeds £130.4m
20 Southampton £128.2m

 

[ender4]

2 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

 

£10M from Europa should be about minimum if we get the group stage I think. Spurs I believe got around £10M for failing at that stage a few seasons back. Getting to the latter stages should be more like £15-20M

Yes you are right, looks like £18m if we win the thing.

https://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/europa-conference-league-prize-money-how-much-winners-get/bltbd8cb488feb8561f

Quote

Play-off round	€750,000
Group stage qualification	€2.94m
Match won in group stage	€500,000
Match drawn in group stage	€166,000
1st in group stage	€650,000
2nd in group stage	€325,000
Knockout round play-offs	€300,000
Round of 16	€600,000
Quarter-final	€1m
Semi-final	€2m
Runner-up	€3m
Champion	€5m

Plus an extra £5m or so from matchday revenue.

[Czarnikjak]

3 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Have just adjusted my estimates for 22/23 and 23/24 based on the above and get the following:

Revenue

22/23 - £220M

23/24 - £240-245M

PL FFP adjusted profit/(loss)

22/23 - (£37M)

23/24 - (£50M)

PL FFP adjusted profit/(loss) 3 year cumulative (threshold £(105M))

22/23 - £(40M)

23/24 - £(65M)

UEFA squad cost ratio estimate

23/24 - 93% (cap 90%)

My 23/24 estimates are based on a 7th place PL finish and a reaching latter knockout stages (QF/SF) of Europa Conference, selling/releasing Sanson/Nakamba/Davis/Young/Traore/Steer/Hause/Wesley for combined £25M, and spending around £100M on 4 players at £100K pw. For squad cost I've assumed 75% of our employee cost is for players and head coach, based on limited info I can find on reasonable PL average for this.

If any of this is at all accurate, then from a PL FFP perspective we are very comfortable for this season and next, but looks like we'd be pushing the limits of UEFA rules (UEFA I think allows €60M losses over 3 seasons, though not sure how comparable the PL FFP adjusted figure is to this), though perhaps not by much so should be able to get within the rules while still spending.

The biggest issue we might have is going to be 24/25 when:

- we lose the Grealish money from the 3-year assessment period

- the other two years as it stands look like making losses beyond the average annual threshold for the PL rules, nevermind UEFA's tighter limits.

- the UEFA squad cost ratio cap reduces to 80%

The two biggest ways we could offset this will be:

- Selling, especially youth for decent money relative to their first team role, eg. like Chukwuemeka sale

- Champions League qualification

Beyond that, establishing a more settled squad, promoting youth, and relying less on transfers will also help.

 

 

Thanks, great work.

For uefa squad cost calculation, i take you have used last 3 year average for profit on player sales? So that would include the Grealish summer, last Summer and whoever we manage to sell for profit this summer.

Also, to get salaries of non football staff, you could look in companies houses at accounts of Aston Villa Ltd (or however this company is now called)...im pretty sure last time I checked it looked as if it had only those employees listed in its accounts. Playing staff  are only included in NSWE accounts

[Tubby]

3 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Have just adjusted my estimates for 22/23 and 23/24 based on the above and get the following:

Revenue

22/23 - £220M

23/24 - £240-245M

PL FFP adjusted profit/(loss)

22/23 - (£37M)

23/24 - (£50M)

PL FFP adjusted profit/(loss) 3 year cumulative (threshold £(105M))

22/23 - £(40M)

23/24 - £(65M)

UEFA squad cost ratio estimate

23/24 - 93% (cap 90%)

My 23/24 estimates are based on a 7th place PL finish and a reaching latter knockout stages (QF/SF) of Europa Conference, selling/releasing Sanson/Nakamba/Davis/Young/Traore/Steer/Hause/Wesley for combined £25M, and spending around £100M on 4 players at £100K pw. For squad cost I've assumed 75% of our employee cost is for players and head coach, based on limited info I can find on reasonable PL average for this.

If any of this is at all accurate, then from a PL FFP perspective we are very comfortable for this season and next, but looks like we'd be pushing the limits of UEFA rules (UEFA I think allows €60M losses over 3 seasons, though not sure how comparable the PL FFP adjusted figure is to this), though perhaps not by much so should be able to get within the rules while still spending.

The biggest issue we might have is going to be 24/25 when:

- we lose the Grealish money from the 3-year assessment period

- the other two years as it stands look like making losses beyond the average annual threshold for the PL rules, nevermind UEFA's tighter limits.

- the UEFA squad cost ratio cap reduces to 80%

The two biggest ways we could offset this will be:

- Selling, especially youth for decent money relative to their first team role, eg. like Chukwuemeka sale

- Champions League qualification

Beyond that, establishing a more settled squad, promoting youth, and relying less on transfers will also help.

 

 

 

Have you factored in the potential for Chris Heck to generate additional commercial revenues?

[tomsky_11]

15 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said:

Thanks, great work.

For uefa squad cost calculation, i take you have used last 3 year average for profit on player sales? So that would include the Grealish summer, last Summer and whoever we manage to sell for profit this summer.

I haven't, I just did the calc for the season. Is that how it works then? Only skim read the rules to find a rough basis for the calc this morning so probably missed it.

17 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said:

Also, to get salaries of non football staff, you could look in companies houses at accounts of Aston Villa Ltd (or however this company is now called)...im pretty sure last time I checked it looked as if it had only those employees listed in its accounts. Playing staff  are only included in NSWE accounts

Good shout. Will take a look.

[Czarnikjak]

1 minute ago, tomsky_11 said:

I haven't, I just did the calc for the season. Is that how it works then? Only skim read the rules to find a rough basis for the calc this morning so probably missed it.

Good shout. Will take a look.

Yes, profit on player sales is calculated by taking the average of last 3 seasons ( just for the squad cost control mind). I assume it's to make it less variable and more predictable for teams.

Edited May 31, 2023 by Czarnikjak

[tomsky_11]

13 minutes ago, Tubby said:

 

Have you factored in the potential for Chris Heck to generate additional commercial revenues?

10% increase in 2022/23. I think 25% in 2023/24. Based on nothing other than pure guess work, factoring in that appointment plus possible European boost.