The AVFC FFP thread

[DaveAV1]

1 hour ago, Czarnikjak said:

They could, but only after they received build permit you can start capitalising these costs. Any preliminary work before you get the the neccasary permits was counted towards ffp.

So suddenly stadium costs count towards FFP and Man City got a stadium for nothing. I hope I’m not just being cynical but…………

[blandy]

7 minutes ago, DaveAV1 said:

So suddenly stadium costs count towards FFP and Man City got a stadium for nothing. I hope I’m not just being cynical but…………

They don't and they didn't. But there's a thread for general FFP discussion, (as opposed to Villa's specific FFP stuff). Please can posters use the right thread.

 

[OutByEaster?]

Our income figure will be fascinating next time out - there seems to be assumption it'll be around the £200m mark - I have a feeling it might be quite a bit more than that.

[Tomaszk]

50 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Our income figure will be fascinating next time out - there seems to be assumption it'll be around the £200m mark - I have a feeling it might be quite a bit more than that.

Confident that'll be the main topic of discussion with Wes, Unai and the Monch.

Figures mentioned.

[Czarnikjak]

54 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Our income figure will be fascinating next time out - there seems to be assumption it'll be around the £200m mark - I have a feeling it might be quite a bit more than that.

Last released figures were £178m. Around March figures for last season will be released. Will struggle to hit £200m for that period (obv I'm not counting player sales). We gonna get around £14m boost for higher league placement, few extra bob for higher ticket prices, there was no major new commercial deals last season...all in all, maybe we will scrape £200m but i doubt it.

[CVByrne]

Few things will help us a bit with FFP

Watkins new contract means his ~£6m per year amortisation will drop to £2.4m but his wages will have gone up about £2.5m per year too I'd say. So net £1m better position I think. 

Bailey new contract in summer will mean his 6.25m amortisation will drop to 1.5m per year, prob cost us £2m per season extra in wages. Saving us ~£2.75m 

Traore leaving saves us £4.5m amortisation and about 3.5m wages. So £8m there

Sanson moving permanently before June probably books us a small profit and (say 1.5m) he'd have £3.5m left in book value. 

Small fee for Chambers ~£2.5m and his wages saved

Overall there's about £20m improvement in FFP for us between profit on sales and reduced amortisation and wages. 

 

We've some young players out on loan to be sold too. We've Hause & Dendonker we need to move on. These will all add up. 

 

[villarule123]

We're also helped in that we probably only need one player to improve the starting 11.

Our squad is very strong now and there isn't a desperate need to sign players. 

[MaVilla]

31 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Few things will help us a bit with FFP

Watkins new contract means his ~£6m per year amortisation will drop to £2.4m but his wages will have gone up about £2.5m per year too I'd say. So net £1m better position I think. 

Bailey new contract in summer will mean his 6.25m amortisation will drop to 1.5m per year, prob cost us £2m per season extra in wages. Saving us ~£2.75m 

Traore leaving saves us £4.5m amortisation and about 3.5m wages. So £8m there

Sanson moving permanently before June probably books us a small profit and (say 1.5m) he'd have £3.5m left in book value. 

Small fee for Chambers ~£2.5m and his wages saved

Overall there's about £20m improvement in FFP for us between profit on sales and reduced amortisation and wages. 

 

We've some young players out on loan to be sold too. We've Hause & Dendonker we need to move on. These will all add up. 

 

interesting.

I wonder if we can get Coutinho off the books this summer also, or was it a 2 year loan?

[Follyfoot]

So what is the general consensus of opinions ?

Do we have to sell before we can buy?

Are we on the limits or above of financial fairl play or do we have some wriggle  room to spend ? 
 

If we do not qualify for the Champions League, will we have to sell one or two of the jewels in our crown?

 

[Talldarkandransome]

53 minutes ago, Follyfoot said:

So what is the general consensus of opinions ?

Do we have to sell before we can buy?

Are we on the limits or above of financial fairl play or do we have some wriggle  room to spend ? 
 

If we do not qualify for the Champions League, will we have to sell one or two of the jewels in our crown?

 

I've no idea how much money is involved with qualifying for that, never been very close to it. I doubt we're at the sell to buy stage though. We won't spend gazillions but we'll spend what we need to

[Czarnikjak]

58 minutes ago, Follyfoot said:

So what is the general consensus of opinions ?

Do we have to sell before we can buy?

Are we on the limits or above of financial fairl play or do we have some wriggle  room to spend ? 
 

If we do not qualify for the Champions League, will we have to sell one or two of the jewels in our crown?

 

We are not constrained by Premier League P&S that much. Bigger problem is UEFA salary cap, we are constrained by that now as we play in Europe. 

Having said that, I would expect focus in January to be selling people like Chambers and Traore (if possible at all), and reassessing in the summer when we know which competition we will be playing next season.

[MaVilla]

1 minute ago, Czarnikjak said:

We are not constrained by Premier League P&S that much. Bigger problem is UEFA salary cap, we are constrained by that now as we play in Europe. 

Having said that, I would expect focus in January to be selling people like Chambers and Traore (if possible at all), and reassessing in the summer when we know which competition we will be playing next season.

Interesting.

I would guess Villa salary to revenue percentage is in the high 80%'s?

The UEFA salary cap is what, 90% this year?, then it drops to 80% next year?, then 70% in 2025?

just looking at the UEFA cost control thingy, it says "ratio of player wages, transfers and agent fees being limited to 70% of revenue and profit on player sales".

is that right?, profit on player sales included also?

 

It also looks like FFP is to become more flexible, ie: the 60m loss over 3 years is a guide if the owner places effectively a "bond" for any excess over 5m  if the club is in "good health", they can be approved to go another 10m over per period? (ie: 30m over the 3 years?, so in theory the 3 year losses could be up to 90m?, rather than the base 60m if all is well and healthy at the club?

nor sure if all this is true, this is where i read it:

https://swissramble.substack.com/p/uefa-squad-cost-control-ratio-2023

[Czarnikjak]

11 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

Interesting.

I would guess Villa salary to revenue percentage is in the high 80%'s?

The UEFA salary cap is what, 90% this year?, then it drops to 80% next year?, then 70% in 2025?

just looking at the UEFA cost control thingy, it says "ratio of player wages, transfers and agent fees being limited to 70% of revenue and profit on player sales".

is that right?, profit on player sales included also?

 

It also looks like FFP is to become more flexible, ie: the 60m loss over 3 years is a guide if the owner places effectively a "bond" for any excess over 5m  if the club is in "good health", they can be approved to go another 10m over per period? (ie: 30m over the 3 years?, so in theory the 3 year losses could be up to 90m?, rather than the base 60m if all is well and healthy at the club?

nor sure if all this is true, this is where i read it:

https://swissramble.substack.com/p/uefa-squad-cost-control-ratio-2023

Last time we tried to calculate our ratio here it was around 80-90%, but this is with high degree of uncertainty.

Yes, player sale profits also count, last 3 year average of your player sales goes towards the cap calculation. Grealish sale just dropping off that calculation was probably the main reason for selling Archer and Ramsey.

Swiss Ramble is an authoritive source for me, you can take anything he writes is factually correct.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Czarnikjak

[MaVilla]

this shows just how far off we are in terms of revenue.

mad tbh.

 

 

[paul514]

Where’s the accounts needs to tell us what is available on the last published accounts?

[CVByrne]

On 26/12/2023 at 19:35, Czarnikjak said:

Last time we tried to calculate our ratio here it was around 80-90%, but this is with high degree of uncertainty.

Yes, player sale profits also count, last 3 year average of your player sales goes towards the cap calculation. Grealish sale just dropping off that calculation was probably the main reason for selling Archer and Ramsey.

Swiss Ramble is an authoritive source for me, you can take anything he writes is factually correct.

Yes we did this calculation not long ago. We are at the crossroads now really. We need to build up a good 3 seasons of top 7/8 PL finishes and European football income plus the additional income we get from sponsors by the additional exposure of Europe. That will boost the income side of the calculation allowing the cost side more room. 

The European football is a multitude of factors. Higher prize money from high PL finishes and the boost of European prize money (ideally EL or CL). Plus the additional income from sponsors, but we then end up with the more stringent squad cost rules.

We are getting to a very good point with the overall squad. We'll have a significant number of the first team players on low to zero amortisation after we extend Bailey and Buendias contracts at some stage next year. 

We also have squad costs for essentially non playing players that will be gone in summer most likely. Talking about Chambers, Hause, Sanson, Traore. Coutinho's wages are 60%+ of his cost so if we can keep him loaned out for his wages it's helpful. While I'd expect 2 or 3 of the youth to be sold to help bank money.

We're in a decent position mostly thanks to the quality of the recruitment. We have no areas of the first team that are issues or gaps that need filling. It means we can control the situation as a biting club. 

[DakotaVilla]

I agree with the majority of the post but lack of a quality RB and cover for Kamara are huge squad issues at this level.

Longer term we have huge single point of failure dependencies on Martinez and Watkins that also need to be addressed in the summer. 

 

[ender4]

On 26/12/2023 at 15:41, MaVilla said:

this shows just how far off we are in terms of revenue.

mad tbh.

 

 

Need to go far into Europe this season to build up that coefficient as the money received from CL football depends on that coefficient.   Otherwise we don’t get much from even being in the CL compared to Liverpool, Arsenal, etc. 

Newcastle only got half of what Man Utd got from CL even though they both went out at the same stage in the same group position. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by ender4

[Czarnikjak]

On 30/12/2023 at 11:23, ender4 said:

Need to go far into Europe this season to build up that coefficient as the money received from CL football depends on that coefficient.   Otherwise we don’t get much from even being in the CL compared to Liverpool, Arsenal, etc. 

Newcastle only got half of what Man Utd got from CL even though they both went out at the same stage in the same group position. 

NSWE pumped in another £130m into the club in December. So looks like we are still not sustainable without cash injections. The price to compete at the top is high! 

[blandy]

16 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said:

NSWE pumped in another £130m into the club in December. So looks like we are still not sustainable without cash injections. The price to compete at the top is high! 

It depends whether the injection of funds is to just keep us going, in which case you’d be right, or whether it’s to grow some aspect of the club, in which case that’s a different story.

In theory at least the P&S (FFP) rules kind of force clubs to operate the football side more or less sustainably.