Generic Virus Thread

[maqroll]

Another case of someone apparently contracting Covid a second time. Not good.

[PaulC]

3 hours ago, maqroll said:

Another case of someone apparently contracting Covid a second time. Not good.

Yes immunity only lasts for so long I think

[Xann]

Quote

 

LONDON — Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain unveiled last month a “world beating” operation to track down people who had been exposed to the coronavirus, giving the country a chance to climb out of lockdown without losing sight of where infections were spreading.

As with much of the government’s response to the pandemic, however, the results have fallen short of the promises, jeopardizing the reopening of Britain’s hobbled economy and risking a second wave of death in one of the countries most debilitated by the virus.

In almost three weeks since the start of the system in England, called N.H.S. Test and Trace, some contact tracers have failed to reach a single person, filling their days instead with internet exercise classes and bookshelf organizing.

Some call handlers, scattered in offices and homes far from the people they speak with, have mistakenly tried to send patients in England to testing sites across the sea in Northern Ireland.

And a government minister threatened on a conference call to stop coordinating with local leaders on the virus-tracking system if they spoke publicly about its failings, according to three officials briefed on the call, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

Contact tracing was supposed to be the bridge between lockdown and a vaccine, enabling the government to pinpoint clusters of infections as they emerged and to stop infected people from passing on the virus. Without it, a World Health Organization official said recently, England would be remiss in reopening its economy.

But the system, staffed by thousands of poorly trained and low-paid contact tracers, was rushed out of the gate on May 28 before it was ready, according to interviews with more than a dozen contact tracers, public health officials and local government leaders. At the time, the government was making a barrage of announcements while also trying to douse a scandal involving Mr. Johnson’s most senior aide, who had violated lockdown orders.

The troubled rollout has left public health officials across England trying to battle a virus they still cannot locate. Test results from privately run sites, now numbering in the tens of thousands daily, were not being reported at a local level as recently as last week, leaders in six councils said. Public health officials say they catch wind of outbreaks from the news. And while the virus is cooling off in London, infection rates remain high in other parts of England, notably the northwest.

 

NY Times

The important thing is that the failing private companies get paid, and the Tory filth's chums get our NHS records, obviously.

[HanoiVillan]

I have lots of Thoughts on what the failure of test and trace says about the government's competence and its attitude to handling the virus, but for now I'll limit myself to a slightly different comment, about what it should tell people that the New York Times regularly produces better journalism about the UK government's response than any UK paper does.

[Xann]

51 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I have lots of Thoughts on what the failure of test and trace says about the government's competence and its attitude to handling the virus, but for now I'll limit myself to a slightly different comment, about what it should tell people that the New York Times regularly produces better journalism about the UK government's response than any UK paper does.

There'd be a lot of throbbing arteries in Gammonshire if they were to read what the press abroad has to say about the UK.

Some of the Irish stuff has been brilliant.

[Straggler]

Quote

UK poised to abandon coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model

Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn

Shocking I tells ya no one could have seen that coming

Quote

The government has been forced to abandon a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app after spending three months and millions of pounds on technology that experts had repeatedly warned would not work.

In an embarrassing U-turn, Matt Hancock said the NHS would switch to an alternative designed by the US tech companies Apple and Google, which is months away from being ready.

 

Edited June 19, 2020 by blandy
extract added

[Stevo985]

1 hour ago, Straggler said:

Shocking I tells ya no one could have seen that coming

This is far far more scandalous than most people will realise.

It's set the track and trace process, and therefore the health of the nation, back months. Primarily to line the pockets of a couple of mates.

[chrisp65]

2 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

This is far far more scandalous than most people will realise.

It's set the track and trace process, and therefore the health of the nation, back months. Primarily to line the pockets of a couple of mates.

Yeah, but Boomerangs and funny hair.

[bannedfromHandV]

5 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

This is far far more scandalous than most people will realise.

It's set the track and trace process, and therefore the health of the nation, back months. Primarily to line the pockets of a couple of mates.

We’ll get an ‘independent’ review that finds no wrong doings in about 2 years time.

Rinse and repeat.

[KentVillan]

I suspect we'll find that track and trace has been a disaster in most western countries.

The UK's stupid experiment with a centralised approach was the biggest and most easily foreseeable mistake, but there are loads of other flaws with the concept. I'm really not convinced it's going to work.

How on earth do they avoid both a huge number of false positives from its reliance on Bluetooth, and a huge number of false negatives due to poor compliance (phone switched off, Bluetooth switched off, app not installed, person doesn't own a phone, etc.).

https://theintercept.com/2020/05/05/coronavirus-bluetooth-contact-tracing/

Quote

But like many great paper plans, the fundamental nature of the universe presents some complications. Underneath its blue runic branding, Bluetooth is just radio waves, the same chunk of the electromagnetic spectrum that allows for FM radio, Wi-Fi, and cell phones. And if you’ve ever used of these things, you know that getting a reliable signal can be a challenge even under seemingly ideal conditions. That’s because radio waves don’t just teleport from transmitter to receiver, but get bonked around and absorbed by objects in the way: Trees, houses, dogs and cats, cars, brick walls, and other human beings all absorb or reflect a Bluetooth signal, affecting the strength of that signal when it reaches its destination or stopping it from getting there entirely.

Given that Google and Apple’s Bluetooth contact tracing relies on using the strength of a received signal (Received Signal Strength Indication, or RSSI) to determine whether you were within coughing distance of a Covid-19 patient that time you walked to the grocery store, this could be a serious problem. Swarun Kumar, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, recently estimated (see video below) that environmental factors could make a Bluetooth device that’s 2 meters away appear to another device as if it’s 20 meters away, or vice versa.

It's largely unworkable isn't it? It'll help, but it's never going to be a solution.

[chrisp65]

3 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

I suspect we'll find that track and trace has been a disaster in most western countries.

The UK's stupid experiment with a centralised approach was the biggest and most easily foreseeable mistake, but there are loads of other flaws with the concept. I'm really not convinced it's going to work.

How on earth do they avoid both a huge number of false positives from its reliance on Bluetooth, and a huge number of false negatives due to poor compliance (phone switched off, Bluetooth switched off, app not installed, person doesn't own a phone, etc.).

https://theintercept.com/2020/05/05/coronavirus-bluetooth-contact-tracing/

It's largely unworkable isn't it? It'll help, but it's never going to be a solution.

 

It helps as part of an overall package.

Newsnight last night was interesting and worth catching up on if its anywhere on i-player.

Hancock saying they’ve known there were problems since May, there was a scientist/prof saying he’d told them on April 11th their system couldn’t possibly work and they told him they already had a solution...

He also pointed out that the system that’s been used across much of Europe for the last couple of months is open source, we could have been using that already and not inventing something new that ultimately was a waste of time and resource. A bit like setting out to invent a new type of ventilator whilst not answering the calls of existing ventilator manufacturers.

At what point does dangerously incompetent become either corrupt or criminally negligent? 

 

[KentVillan]

22 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

He also pointed out that the system that’s been used across much of Europe for the last couple of months is open source, we could have been using that already and not inventing something new that ultimately was a waste of time and resource. A bit like setting out to invent a new type of ventilator whilst not answering the calls of existing ventilator manufacturers.

Is there such a system? My understanding was nobody had successfully rolled one out yet, besides a handful of East Asian countries.

Germany had a very good human-led system since early in the outbreak, but only just launched their app (to some scepticism among the German public). Switzerland just piloted their app to a small section of the population.

It all feels to me like a classic case of expecting technology to do something it just isn't capable of.

Much like ventilators, track and trace apps will probably turn out to be a bit of a wild goose chase, exacerbated by the UK's insistence on developing its own "world leading" approach.

[KentVillan]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53106444

Quote

Coronavirus was already in Italy by December, waste water study finds

Italian scientists say sewage water from two cities contained coronavirus traces in December, long before the country's first confirmed cases.

The National Institute of Health (ISS) said water from Milan and Turin showed genetic virus traces on 18 December.

It adds to evidence from other countries that the virus may have been circulating much earlier than thought.

Chinese officials confirmed the first cases at the end of December. Italy's first case was in mid-February.

In May French scientists said tests on samples showed a patient treated for suspected pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus.

Meanwhile in Spain a study found virus traces in waste water collected in mid-January in Barcelona, some 40 days before the first local case was discovered.

In their study, ISS scientists examined 40 sewage samples collected from wastewater treatment plants in northern Italy between last October and February.

Samples from October and November came back negative, showing that the virus had not yet arrived, ISS water quality expert Giuseppina La Rosa said. Waste water from Bologna began showing traces of the virus in January.

Another piece pointing to the importance of sewage testing as a way of tracking the spread of the disease in different communities.

[sne]

The number of confirmed cases world wide goes up with roughly 1 millions per week now.

Was about 7 mil at the beginning of last week, will be over 9 mil when this week is over.

[chrisp65]

34 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

Is there such a system? My understanding was nobody had successfully rolled one out yet, besides a handful of East Asian countries.

Germany had a very good human-led system since early in the outbreak, but only just launched their app (to some scepticism among the German public). Switzerland just piloted their app to a small section of the population.

It all feels to me like a classic case of expecting technology to do something it just isn't capable of.

Much like ventilators, track and trace apps will probably turn out to be a bit of a wild goose chase, exacerbated by the UK's insistence on developing its own "world leading" approach.

Newsnight 18.06.2020

The whole thing is interesting, but worth having a listen between 5’40” and 8’00”

[Davkaus]

17 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53106444

Another piece pointing to the importance of sewage testing as a way of tracking the spread of the disease in different communities.

Interesting to see it was in Europe earlier than thought.

I still suspect it was in the UK in December, I know a handful of people that had something over Christmas that in retrospect clearly looked like Covid.

[snowychap]

27 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53106444

Another piece pointing to the importance of sewage testing as a way of tracking the spread of the disease in different communities.

I hope this doesn't get to the point where stool samples are required before going in to Morrisons.

[bannedfromHandV]

23 minutes ago, sne said:

The number of confirmed cases world wide goes up with roughly 1 millions per week now.

Was about 7 mil at the beginning of last week, will be over 9 mil when this week is over.

9 million = 0.12% of global population.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

At what point does dangerously incompetent become either corrupt or criminally negligent? 

That was quite some time ago.

Although the NHSX app turns out to have been a complete waste of time and money, and potentially lives, we can nevertheless console ourselves that Dominic Cummings mate's company (Faculty) did very nicely out of it. So, swings and roundabouts.

[Xela]

35 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Interesting to see it was in Europe earlier than thought.

I still suspect it was in the UK in December, I know a handful of people that had something over Christmas that in retrospect clearly looked like Covid.

Yep, I was proper ill a couple of weeks before Christmas. Weak as a kitten, a horrible cough and shortness of breath. Makes me think I may have had a mild case of it.