Xela Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 If we aren't signing a midfielder this window then absolutely no chance is Luiz leaving. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
est1874 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Unlikely we sell him but just to stick two fingers to those cheapskates at Spurs I'd love to sign him to a long-term deal and then offer him out for £65m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacketspuds Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Maybe Luiz is leaving. Arsenal haven’t got Arthur from Juventus and they might offer us a deal that is too good to turn down. I really like Luiz so hope we keep him, but the contract situation makes it difficult as his value will drop each window we get into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Monsieur Hazdazler Posted January 31, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted January 31, 2022 (edited) I think some of the fan narrative around Douglas Luiz has probably been one of the biggest irritants of this transfer window for me, especially on twitter which is not exactly the best platform for adult debate anyway. It seems like you either rate Douglas Luiz and want to keep him, or you think he's rubbish and want to sell him. Obviously you may be in one of those camps, in reality there's a massive middle ground. I rate Douglas Luiz, I think he's a good player. He's a good distributor of the ball and keeps the game ticking over nicely when in the DM role, he's a solid defender without being exceptional in that role. The problem that I have with Douglas Luiz and why I'm not against selling him is that he's not an exceptional 6 - he's a solid 6 capable in the role. He may well be an exceptional 8 but we've not seen much of him in that role for Villa. From what I have seen of him, I'm not convinced that his ability to pass the ball forward or create chances, or carry the ball forward are particularly strong compared to others we have at the club. McGinn (forward passing) and Ramsey (ball carrying) excel at those two elements, and Sanson has shown really strong abilities in his limited appearances to press and carry the ball forward as well. So would Douglas Luiz get into our team ahead of either Ramsey or McGinn? I'd hazard a guess he probably wouldn't unless one of them picked up a knock and he got a chance, but then he's also fighting vs Sanson for the place, who Gerrard has shown faith in by giving him opportunities. If Douglas Luiz isn't our ideal 6 then we have to take one of the following routes: 1) He signs a new deal and contends with McGinn, Ramsey and Sanson for those spots in midfield, while providing cover at DM if we bring in someone new there. 2) He doesn't sign a new deal and we can't get a new DM in, so he stays until the summer playing DM. 3) He leaves now and we sign a new DM, with Chambers acting as back up in that role. The problem with option 1 is that he likely won't sign a new deal if he's not getting on the pitch, the problem with option 2 is that we end up having to offload him in the summer for around 15-20million, or lose him on a free the following summer because he wants to play further forward and we can't offer that. In my opinion the clearest and cleanest option is number 3 - we get a good price for Douglas Luiz at 30million plus which is invested in an out and out DM who improves that position (not because the new arrival is simply a better player but because he's a better fit for the role). We still have McGinn, Ramsey and Sanson to contest the two number 8 roles with Carney offering cover there also (although I see him as more of a 10 in our system). If we can't make that work, we have to hold him until the summer and accept we take a reduced fee there as he's unlikely to sign a new deal. From a business point of view, taking a good deal now makes a lot of sense - it doesn't make Douglas Luiz a bad player or mean we are desperate to get rid of him, but simply it's the smart thing to do. Edited January 31, 2022 by Monsieur Hazdazler 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorke81 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 hours ago, Monsieur Hazdazler said: I think some of the fan narrative around Douglas Luiz has probably been one of the biggest irritants of this transfer window for me, especially on twitter which is not exactly the best platform for adult debate anyway. It seems like you either rate Douglas Luiz and want to keep him, or you think he's rubbish and want to sell him. Obviously you may be in one of those camps, in reality there's a massive middle ground. I rate Douglas Luiz, I think he's a good player. He's a good distributor of the ball and keeps the game ticking over nicely when in the DM role, he's a solid defender without being exceptional in that role. The problem that I have with Douglas Luiz and why I'm not against selling him is that he's not an exceptional 6 - he's a solid 6 capable in the role. He may well be an exceptional 8 but we've not seen much of him in that role for Villa. From what I have seen of him, I'm not convinced that his ability to pass the ball forward or create chances, or carry the ball forward are particularly strong compared to others we have at the club. McGinn (forward passing) and Ramsey (ball carrying) excel at those two elements, and Sanson has shown really strong abilities in his limited appearances to press and carry the ball forward as well. So would Douglas Luiz get into our team ahead of either Ramsey or McGinn? I'd hazard a guess he probably wouldn't unless one of them picked up a knock and he got a chance, but then he's also fighting vs Sanson for the place, who Gerrard has shown faith in by giving him opportunities. If Douglas Luiz isn't our ideal 6 then we have to take one of the following routes: 1) He signs a new deal and contends with McGinn, Ramsey and Sanson for those spots in midfield, while providing cover at DM if we bring in someone new there. 2) He doesn't sign a new deal and we can't get a new DM in, so he stays until the summer playing DM. 3) He leaves now and we sign a new DM, with Chambers acting as back up in that role. The problem with option 1 is that he likely won't sign a new deal if he's not getting on the pitch, the problem with option 2 is that we end up having to offload him in the summer for around 15-20million, or lose him on a free the following summer because he wants to play further forward and we can't offer that. In my opinion the clearest and cleanest option is number 3 - we get a good price for Douglas Luiz at 30million plus which is invested in an out and out DM who improves that position (not because the new arrival is simply a better player but because he's a better fit for the role). We still have McGinn, Ramsey and Sanson to contest the two number 8 roles with Carney offering cover there also (although I see him as more of a 10 in our system). If we can't make that work, we have to hold him until the summer and accept we take a reduced fee there as he's unlikely to sign a new deal. From a business point of view, taking a good deal now makes a lot of sense - it doesn't make Douglas Luiz a bad player or mean we are desperate to get rid of him, but simply it's the smart thing to do. Great comment! Looking at option 2 and 3, your business point of view is focused on cold cash - sell now for an ok fee or wait till summer and get a rather deflated fee. However, the difference of having or not having Luiz as a temp at DM could also be the difference of mid-table boredom and fighting for fringe european places - what is the alternative if we sell him now without bringing in a new DM? The prospect of pushing for Europe is a rather compelling business point of view in my opinion. It's a slim chance at best, but the upside would be much larger than the reduced value of Luiz due to his contract length being reduced by 6 months. I of course trust in our management to take the right direction here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacketspuds Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Surprised we're not loaning him to Arsenal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I hope we can sign him to a new contract so at least his value is protected. If we receive the right offers we can always sell him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: As if this is actually news at 4pm on deadline day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monsieur Hazdazler Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 hours ago, Yorke81 said: Great comment! Looking at option 2 and 3, your business point of view is focused on cold cash - sell now for an ok fee or wait till summer and get a rather deflated fee. However, the difference of having or not having Luiz as a temp at DM could also be the difference of mid-table boredom and fighting for fringe european places - what is the alternative if we sell him now without bringing in a new DM? The prospect of pushing for Europe is a rather compelling business point of view in my opinion. It's a slim chance at best, but the upside would be much larger than the reduced value of Luiz due to his contract length being reduced by 6 months. I of course trust in our management to take the right direction here I don’t think there was going to be a situation where we let him go without bringing in a DM, wasn’t really ever an option I considered us taking. It seems pretty clear now the deals weren’t available so we hold station until the summer and try to convince him to sign a new deal to hold his value. Assuming is he dedicated to the idea of playing further forward I think now we are stuck with him not signing a new deal and we have a weaker summer position, but there’s no way the club would let him go now without a new DM coming in simply to generate a higher fee for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan-scott Posted January 31, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 31, 2022 Sign the thing Dougie!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfTimePost Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Anybody know if we rejected any offers for Dougie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 19 hours ago, Monsieur Hazdazler said: I think some of the fan narrative around Douglas Luiz has probably been one of the biggest irritants of this transfer window for me, especially on twitter which is not exactly the best platform for adult debate anyway. It seems like you either rate Douglas Luiz and want to keep him, or you think he's rubbish and want to sell him. Obviously you may be in one of those camps, in reality there's a massive middle ground. I rate Douglas Luiz, I think he's a good player. He's a good distributor of the ball and keeps the game ticking over nicely when in the DM role, he's a solid defender without being exceptional in that role. The problem that I have with Douglas Luiz and why I'm not against selling him is that he's not an exceptional 6 - he's a solid 6 capable in the role. He may well be an exceptional 8 but we've not seen much of him in that role for Villa. From what I have seen of him, I'm not convinced that his ability to pass the ball forward or create chances, or carry the ball forward are particularly strong compared to others we have at the club. McGinn (forward passing) and Ramsey (ball carrying) excel at those two elements, and Sanson has shown really strong abilities in his limited appearances to press and carry the ball forward as well. So would Douglas Luiz get into our team ahead of either Ramsey or McGinn? I'd hazard a guess he probably wouldn't unless one of them picked up a knock and he got a chance, but then he's also fighting vs Sanson for the place, who Gerrard has shown faith in by giving him opportunities. If Douglas Luiz isn't our ideal 6 then we have to take one of the following routes: 1) He signs a new deal and contends with McGinn, Ramsey and Sanson for those spots in midfield, while providing cover at DM if we bring in someone new there. 2) He doesn't sign a new deal and we can't get a new DM in, so he stays until the summer playing DM. 3) He leaves now and we sign a new DM, with Chambers acting as back up in that role. The problem with option 1 is that he likely won't sign a new deal if he's not getting on the pitch, the problem with option 2 is that we end up having to offload him in the summer for around 15-20million, or lose him on a free the following summer because he wants to play further forward and we can't offer that. In my opinion the clearest and cleanest option is number 3 - we get a good price for Douglas Luiz at 30million plus which is invested in an out and out DM who improves that position (not because the new arrival is simply a better player but because he's a better fit for the role). We still have McGinn, Ramsey and Sanson to contest the two number 8 roles with Carney offering cover there also (although I see him as more of a 10 in our system). If we can't make that work, we have to hold him until the summer and accept we take a reduced fee there as he's unlikely to sign a new deal. From a business point of view, taking a good deal now makes a lot of sense - it doesn't make Douglas Luiz a bad player or mean we are desperate to get rid of him, but simply it's the smart thing to do. Great post, and well argued. He's still young, though. He plays in two roles (6 or 8), where players typically peak quite late - late 20s usually. I don't think there's loads of talent out there in his age group that really rivals him. In the PL it's only Rice (23) in his age bracket who is clearly better than him defensively, although I think he's competitive in other areas of play. Ndidi and Rodri are both 25. Beyond that, most teams have older players holding. Looking outside the PL, there are a few names out there... Locatelli, De Jong, Kessie... But as I say, it's a hard position to recruit, and IMO Douglas Luiz will always be a very valuable asset here, even as we bring in more talent. His style of play fits lots of different tactical systems, and he generally shows good game intelligence. He'll keep getting better over time, and I think we'd regret selling him. I do also see the arguments that he can be a bit soft in the tackle, and maybe doesn't create or score enough when he's in attacking positions. I'd keep him for another couple of years at least, though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, villan-scott said: Sign the thing Dougie!! Don't scare us with transfer news with a picture of Lingard ffs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'm getting close to a point where I'd like to see him gone. He's quite obviously not all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete101 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, Tom13 said: I'm getting close to a point where I'd like to see him gone. He's quite obviously not all in. Some might say he has put more into this club than others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom13 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, pete101 said: Some might say he has put more into this club than others I agree, I just mean the contract situation. I just hate to see it if I'm honest. He's been one of my fav players since he joined, but if he wants a move, we've gotta move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I fear Kia may be in Doug's ear telling him the money Newcastle will pay him. He's worth giving a long contract to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monsieur Hazdazler Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 43 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Great post, and well argued. He's still young, though. He plays in two roles (6 or 8), where players typically peak quite late - late 20s usually. I don't think there's loads of talent out there in his age group that really rivals him. In the PL it's only Rice (23) in his age bracket who is clearly better than him defensively, although I think he's competitive in other areas of play. Ndidi and Rodri are both 25. Beyond that, most teams have older players holding. Looking outside the PL, there are a few names out there... Locatelli, De Jong, Kessie... But as I say, it's a hard position to recruit, and IMO Douglas Luiz will always be a very valuable asset here, even as we bring in more talent. His style of play fits lots of different tactical systems, and he generally shows good game intelligence. He'll keep getting better over time, and I think we'd regret selling him. I do also see the arguments that he can be a bit soft in the tackle, and maybe doesn't create or score enough when he's in attacking positions. I'd keep him for another couple of years at least, though. Thanks for the kind words! I would be more than happy if he re-signed and stuck around - that would be in the clubs best interests, as you say he is young with plenty of potential, and is already playing at a very good level for his age with international experience to boot. Him re-signing would protect his value and help us keep hold of a valuable player, as you say who can play in two positions and is tactically flexible. Ultimately though where I think the problem lies, is that with only 18months left on his deal we have to provide the platform for him to progress his career otherwise he simply will not sign a new deal, and we won't get the opportunity to keep him around for a few years. If you were Douglas Luiz and you were stuck behind McGinn and Ramsey (and potentially Sanson - very debatable) for your preferred position in the team, and you want to see your career develop in that particular role, you probably wouldn't sign a new deal until your playing time in that role changed. Certainly now he will be our first choice DM through until the summer, and we will almost certainly offer him better terms to try to encourage him to extend his contract. At that stage it will be up to him whether he wants to accept the higher wage to play in a position he doesn't really want to play long term, or be stuck on the bench fighting for his place - he may be ok with that and he takes the higher wage in the end which is fine and secures our position at least, but probably not best for his career. If he gets assurance that next season he will play further forward that might help, but ultimately in that situation he may just prefer to wait to see if that actually comes to pass, in which case we enter a risky scenario where he goes into the final 12 months of his deal and we lose a significant sum of money if he leaves on a free. I think the stage is set for a situation where we let him go in the summer to protect our financial position if he hasn't accepted a new contract - ultimately he's a good player but isn't first choice for us in his favoured position, and our recruitment team will fancy they can get a more specialised DM who wants to play that role - that will probably impact the financial package he is offered as well. It's a fortunate problem to have because Jacob Ramsey has come on so well it's added an extra layer of competition in that role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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