18/19 Race for Promotion

[pas5898]

Still feel if we can be in touching distance (8-10 points) after this run of awful games, we have a chance of automatic promotion.

After Boxing Day we have 7 bottom half teams and Sheffield Utd at home. All winnable.

Playoffs are realistic but I wouldn’t rule out 2nd.

 

 

[TheAuthority]

11 hours ago, TrentVilla said:

and in Lolley they’ve a real in form threat. 

You mean, "Agent Lolley?"

[Zatman]

15 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Will start getting excited if we beat Forest. Remember what happened after Wolves last season. They are a tough team to beat this season.

Think we'll lose at Boro (they'll inevitably score from a corner) and shut down our attack. Got a good feeling for West Brom away.

5-6 points from our next three would be a good return.

West Brom game could end 7-7 going by both teams defences

[fightoffyour]

7 hours ago, villalad21 said:

Forest and Leeds are no pushovers

We’re Aston Villa, Steve, we fear nobody.

[Merson08]

After the Birmingham game Aston Villa have 27 points out of a possible 54. The final projected points total will currently be 69 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 9th.

There is still 84 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 83 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (Before Smith) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 2 PPG from the Saviour (After Smith). Using 2PPG over the remaining 28 games. 

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 4th. (83 points is the total points from the 17/18 season under Bruce)

Edited November 26, 2018 by Merson08

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

58 minutes ago, Merson08 said:

After the Birmingham game Aston Villa have 27 points out of a possible 54. The final projected points total will currently be 69 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 9th.

There is still 84 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 83 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (Before Smith) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 2 PPG from the Saviour (After Smith). Using 2PPG over the remaining 28 games. 

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 4th. (83 points is the total points from the 17/18 season under Bruce)

How many more wins would we need to be in the magical 2 points per game territory?

[Merson08]

4 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

How many more wins would we need to be in the magical 2 points per game territory?

It sounds alot.....10 more wins to get us to 2PPG.

We would reach this milestone if we continue to win every game from now at Played 27 with 54 Points. Currently only Norwich are on 2PPG and its highly likely this season that you will get top 2 with a much lower PPG maybe even 1.75. 

Edited November 26, 2018 by Merson08

[Nigel]

2 hours ago, Merson08 said:

After the Birmingham game Aston Villa have 27 points out of a possible 54. The final projected points total will currently be 69 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 9th.

There is still 84 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 83 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (Before Smith) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 2 PPG from the Saviour (After Smith). Using 2PPG over the remaining 28 games. 

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 4th. (83 points is the total points from the 17/18 season under Bruce)

The magic 2 points per game only really matters till around the 30 game mark....then the fun starts! Anything could happen and we have the advantage that we have been here before.

 

[rubberman]

4 hours ago, Merson08 said:

giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

As long as this figure carries on not changing, I'm happy.

[Stevo985]

4 hours ago, Merson08 said:

After the Birmingham game Aston Villa have 27 points out of a possible 54. The final projected points total will currently be 69 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 9th.

There is still 84 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 111 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 83 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (Before Smith) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 2 PPG from the Saviour (After Smith). Using 2PPG over the remaining 28 games. 

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 4th. (83 points is the total points from the 17/18 season under Bruce)

In the first part of you post, doesn't your projected points just take our current points ratio and multiply it by the total number of games in a season to give a final total?

In which case if you're doing that for every team then your projection is just the current league table.

 

The second half of your post is more useful as it isolates Smith's performances.

[AvfcRigo82]

Fwiw, I think we will go up automatically this season without the drama of playoffs. 

[TrentVilla]

11 hours ago, TheAuthority said:

You mean, "Agent Lolley?"

Is that one of the Gardner brothers?

[Merson08]

18 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

In the first part of you post, doesn't your projected points just take our current points ratio and multiply it by the total number of games in a season to give a final total?

In which case if you're doing that for every team then your projection is just the current league table.

 

The second half of your post is more useful as it isolates Smith's performances.

You would absolutely be right, "if" I did this for every team it would just show the current league table. However, I aren't doing it for all teams and using last seasons final table to a estimated finishing position.

With every win, lose or draw it will change the projected total points accrued and essentially makes a moving target.

[Vive_La_Villa]

Squad wise we have adequate strength apart from at the back. Need to get through this stretch of games without losing key players. 

At one point in December there are 4 games in 9 days. Ridiculous.

[Nigel]

1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Squad wise we have adequate strength apart from at the back. Need to get through this stretch of games without losing key players. 

At one point in December there are 4 games in 9 days. Ridiculous.

It's the same for most teams tbf 

[Vive_La_Villa]

1 hour ago, Nigel said:

It's the same for most teams tbf 

True and we should be better prepared than most in terms of squad strength. (Apart from centre half position of course, thanks Bruce).

Edited November 27, 2018 by Vive_La_Villa

[terrytini]

Since he arrived I’ve looked at us needing 2 Wins and a Draw from every 4 games. I think that is a very realistic and acheivable goal....one which he is currently bettering.

He took over with us on 15 Points from 12 games.

7 points from every 4 games would mean we’d have 71 points after 44 games, potentially finishing the season on 77, in the Play Offs.

I do agree, however, with those that argue a slightly lower points total than usual may get Automatic Promotion......there is definitely evidence so far that there is less dominance by any given side. 

My money is on us being dead certs for the Play Offs, and in with a chance of the top 2.

[Vive_La_Villa]

31 minutes ago, terrytini said:

Since he arrived I’ve looked at us needing 2 Wins and a Draw from every 4 games. I think that is a very realistic and acheivable goal....one which he is currently bettering.

He took over with us on 15 Points from 12 games.

7 points from every 4 games would mean we’d have 71 points after 44 games, potentially finishing the season on 77, in the Play Offs.

I do agree, however, with those that argue a slightly lower points total than usual may get Automatic Promotion......there is definitely evidence so far that there is less dominance by any given side. 

My money is on us being dead certs for the Play Offs, and in with a chance of the top 2.

As things stand I’m confident we can beat anyone. I never used to have that feeling when Bruce was in charge even though we probably had a better team. 

Edited November 27, 2018 by Vive_La_Villa

[romavillan]

On 26/11/2018 at 15:31, AvfcRigo82 said:

Fwiw, I think we will go up automatically this season without the drama of playoffs. 

Until it's impossible that has to be the aim, Smith will deserve a **** statue if he pulls it off though. Fulham's rise was incredible last year but they couldn't catch the top 2. We'd have to do better than they did to get automatic promotion. Monumental, but who knows, we've still got to finish hiring coaches, scouts, have a transfer window in Jan. The room for improvement is there, and tbf if we play at the QPR/Derby levels against anyone in this league I think we've already got too much for 99% of this division. If we manage to improve on what we've got, then autos is possible, going to be a hell of a ride either way

[Nigel]

Going to fun again tonight watching the results come in!