Relegation v4.0

[DCJonah]

Yeah the next few weeks will paint a better picture of what we can expect for the rest of the season.

[VillaChris]

If Everton lose at City which is probable then we actually have a chance to go in the top 10 by beating Leicester. Newcastle also have Chelsea and Arsenal next so we could feasibly go above them aswell in the next few weeks.

 

Mind you after flopping big time over xmas last season when we were in a similar position I'm doing the boring one game at a time mindset.

 

That said we really should be getting 4 points from Leicester and West Brom, I ain't expecting much from man. United obviously and Swansea but after that is Palace again and Sunderland so I'd like to think on NYD we'll have something like 24 points on the board, top 10 and the second half of the season can potentially look a bit more comfortable than we've been accustomed to in the last few years.

 

With a Lambert team I'm not holding my breath though.

[lexicon]

The run of games is very important and we've had our shit run, so hopefully things won't be too bad. The trio of Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea on the trot in January and February looks a bit shitty though.

[DCJonah]

I think we'll need to score 30 goals to stay up. Only 2 teams have stayed up in prem history with less and that was with 29 goals.

We've got to score 22 goals in 24 games.

I think its going to be close.

Benteke staying 100% fit and having an excellent season may get us 12 but thats two big ifs.

So have we got another 10 goals in us? You'd think we would but we know gabby and weimman have dry spells and Cole won't always be fit.

I think our lack of goals could really see us down there by the end. Even with benteke being 100% fit and superb

[Villarocker]

I think we'll need to score 30 goals to stay up. Only 2 teams have stayed up in prem history with less and that was with 29 goals.

We've got to score 22 goals in 24 games.

I think its going to be close.

Benteke staying 100% fit and having an excellent season may get us 12 but thats two big ifs.

So have we got another 10 goals in us? You'd think we would but we know gabby and weimman have dry spells and Cole won't always be fit.

I think our lack of goals could really see us down there by the end. Even with benteke being 100% fit and superb

 

Your point is a very valid but scary one to make!

 

Let's hope that the players and coaching staff are aware of this.

[leviramsey]

This is how i see it, its stupid not to look at who we have played and not factor this is in when assessing our season so far. 4 points from the next 2 games should give the players the breathing space they need to start stringing together some better performances. UTV

To be fair, that's more or less exactly what the power ratings which generate the probabilities used in the Monte Carlo attempt to (and probably actually) do.

That said, our last game against Spurs last year are still a factor in the ratings (and the fact that Spurs are somewhat mediocre this season makes it look even worse). It should age out after this weekend; that by itself will probably knock about 5-10% off the relegation chance. If we beat Leicester, I'd expect our relegation chance to go down to the 10-15% range.

[bobzy]

I think we'll need to score 30 goals to stay up. Only 2 teams have stayed up in prem history with less and that was with 29 goals.

We've got to score 22 goals in 24 games.

I think its going to be close.

Benteke staying 100% fit and having an excellent season may get us 12 but thats two big ifs.

So have we got another 10 goals in us? You'd think we would but we know gabby and weimman have dry spells and Cole won't always be fit.

I think our lack of goals could really see us down there by the end. Even with benteke being 100% fit and superb

 

We're certainly not safe... BUT... we've only scored, what, 8 goals as it is?  And that's with a third of the season gone... and we're sitting in 12th.  We could (could!) win 7 games 1-0 and stay up.

Goals are our main problem in terms of general play, but results matter moreso.  As Lambert has already proven, some records will continue to be broken.

[Oaks]

I think we'll need to score 30 goals to stay up. Only 2 teams have stayed up in prem history with less and that was with 29 goals.

We've got to score 22 goals in 24 games.

I think its going to be close.

Benteke staying 100% fit and having an excellent season may get us 12 but thats two big ifs.

So have we got another 10 goals in us? You'd think we would but we know gabby and weimman have dry spells and Cole won't always be fit.

I think our lack of goals could really see us down there by the end. Even with benteke being 100% fit and superb

 

Your point is a very valid but scary one to make!

 

Let's hope that the players and coaching staff are aware of this.

Na if we maintain 2 points per goal, we only need another 10.

[leviramsey]

Leicester: 82.6% vv

Burnley: 78.5% vvvv

Hull: 32.1% ^^

WBA: 24.9% vv

QPR: 24.5% ^^^^

Villa: 24.2% ^^

Palace: 19.9% v

Sunderland: 10.1% v

Stoke: 2.6% ^^

Liverpool: 0.5%

Everton: 0.1%

QPR: 64.2% vv

Leicester: 58.9% v

Hull: 48.3%

Villa: 44.9% ^

Burnley: 34.8% ^^^

Stoke: 20.2% v

Palace: 12.5% v

WBA: 9.5% ^

Sunderland: 2.9%

Newcastle: 2.1%

Liverpool: 1.5%

Spurs: 0.2%

[VillaChris]

"Only" need 5 wins now.

 

It would be great to have 30 points by the end of the liverpool game in mid January. It's not that unrealistc, 4 points from Leicester away and Liverpool, 4 points from Palace and Sunderland home games and a win at West Brom.

 

I think even Lambert would struggle to turn that into a relegation battle.

[leviramsey]

Leicester: 80.8%

Villa: 50.7% vvv

QPR: 49.5% vvv

Hull: 43.5% v

Burnley: 33.9% ^^^^

Palace: 17.3%

Stoke: 10.3% v

WBA: 5.6% ^^

Liverpool: 4.9%

Sunderland: 2.8% ^

Newcastle: 0.7%

Leicester: 82.6% vv

Burnley: 78.5% vvvv

Hull: 32.1% ^^

WBA: 24.9% vv

QPR: 24.5% ^^^^

Villa: 24.2% ^^

Palace: 19.9% v

Sunderland: 10.1% v

Stoke: 2.6% ^^

Liverpool: 0.5%

Everton: 0.1%

[Papillon]

I think we'll need to score 30 goals to stay up. Only 2 teams have stayed up in prem history with less and that was with 29 goals.

We've got to score 22 goals in 24 games.

I think its going to be close.

Benteke staying 100% fit and having an excellent season may get us 12 but thats two big ifs.

So have we got another 10 goals in us? You'd think we would but we know gabby and weimman have dry spells and Cole won't always be fit.

I think our lack of goals could really see us down there by the end. Even with benteke being 100% fit and superb

 

You can't count like that, it's not about scoring one goal in each game, it's about winning games and getting points. We are going to strike out several times, but then again we can suddenly score five goals at home to QPR or Burnley. Southampton scored seven goals again Sunderland, Leicester scored five goals at home against United, stuff happens.

[John]

19 more points should do it and 21 would do it beyond any reasonable doubt. So five 1-0 wins and four to six 0-0 draws will do it. Five more goals should not be beyond us....

[heid3ster]

John, do you think we're going to keep that many clean sheets??

[Jimzk5]

We ain't going down, not when you have teams like Sunderland who have only won 2 games this season still outside the bottom 3.

Hull

Palace

Leicester

[TrentVilla]

No chance we are going down.

[blandy]

Big chance

[TrentVilla]

Well I'm just as certain we won't as you are we will, guess we will have to wait and see

[Robbie09]

We'll finish above at least 6 teams. I'm looking up not down!

[tomaspg]

now it looks like the chances of going down are pretty slim, there are teams playing alot worse than us at the moment and it looks like we will be able to get the points we need to see us safe if we play like we have recently. The only issue i see is our consistency, if we go on a bad run like the one we had earlier in the season we could be right back into the relegation battle. it would be nice to feel comfortable for once, not constantly have to worry about cocking up and going down.