Dodgyknees Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 You are looking at it the wrong way. It is unlikely at the bottom, likely at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 1, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted January 1, 2015 Leicester: 84.2%Burnley: 51.6% ^Palace: 48.4% vWBA: 38.5% vvvHull: 32.7% vVilla: 21.9% ^^QPR: 18.5% ^Sunderland: 3.8%Everton: 0.3%Stoke: 0.1%Leicester: 88.2%Burnley: 62.3%Palace: 41.4% vVilla: 39.6% vvQPR: 25.5%Hull: 24.8% ^^WBA: 13.4% ^Sunderland: 1.9%Stoke: 1.6%Newcastle: 0.8%Liverpool: 0.4%Everton: 0.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 how are everton that less likely than us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Everton I could understand , QPR and Sunderland I cannot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 If we draw all our remaining matches 0-0 (which seems the most probable outcome at present) we will have 40 points and be safe! This must be our aim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 1, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted January 1, 2015 (edited) Our main relegation risk arises from an inability to score goals, even against teams which are defensively poor*. We won't win many games at the rate we're scoring goals. The other teams around us can score goals, which means they're more likely to win games, which means they can tolerate losses.I don't think it would be unlucky of us if we only win 2 or 3 games the rest of the way, so I don't see us pulling away from Sunderland or QPR; if we don't pull away, our goal difference really hurts us.*: we can see this when we compare how many goals we score to how much the opponents have conceded on average:Hull: 2 for Villa, 1.30 average (+0.70)Leicester: 2 for Villa, 1.65 average (+0.35)Southampton: 1 for Villa, 0.75 average (+0.25)Man Utd: 1 for Villa, 1.00 average (0.00)Stoke: 1 for Villa, 1.20 average (-0.20)Spurs: 1 for Villa, 1.26 average (-0.26)Liverpool: 1 for Villa, 1.35 average (-0.35)(a) Palace: 1 for Villa, 1.50 average (-0.50)Burnley: 1 for Villa, 1.60 average (-0.60)Chelsea: 0 for Villa, 0.74 average (-0.74)Man City: 0 for Villa, 1.05 average (-1.05)West Ham: 0 for Villa, 1.20 average (-1.20)Arsenal: 0 for Villa, 1.25 average (-1.25)WBA: 0 for Villa, 1.45 average (-1.45)(h) Palace: 0 for Villa, 1.50 average (-1.50)Sunderland: 0 for Villa, 1.50 average (-1.50)Newcastle: 0 for Villa, 1.55 average (-1.55)Everton: 0 for Villa, 1.65 average (-1.65)QPR: 0 for Villa, 1.75 average (-1.75)So on average, we score about 0.69 goals less per game than our opposition usually allows. The only team going forward, I think we're reasonably likely to score against is QPR (not to say we'll only score against QPR, but the most likely scoreline for Villa in every other game, per this metric, is no goals). Edited January 1, 2015 by leviramsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Have you got Stoke right,in that table, Levi? Looks more like -0.20 to me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 how are everton that less likely than us? I think Everton are less likely than us to go down. You don't?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 We have wasted a great opportunity to put some decent daylight between us and the bottom 3 in the last few weeks. Going to be a case of looking over our shoulder as usual for the rest of the season I fear with Burnley and Leicester picking up points now and WBA and Palace having new managers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimzk5 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 We have wasted a great opportunity to put some decent daylight between us and the bottom 3 in the last few weeks. Going to be a case of looking over our shoulder as usual for the rest of the season I fear with Burnley and Leicester picking up points now and WBA and Palace having new managers. This is where I am after today. I think we had the same amount of points this time last season and look how that ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daz316 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This is our year lads and it's going to hurt. However I'm at the point where I think it needs to happen for their to be a revolt and finally get rid of this stage horrible set up we have. Don't reply with the relegation isn't a good thing etc because I know that but we are only going one way with this and I'm so bored of it. My nephew loved us and has a season ticket, I asked him today how he is so dedicated but he loves it anyways. I told him one day he will see is be successful again but it won't be Intel there's change, relegation is the only thing that will bring about that change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This is our year lads and it's going to hurt. However I'm at the point where I think it needs to happen for their to be a revolt and finally get rid of this stage horrible set up we have. Don't reply with the relegation isn't a good thing etc because I know that but we are only going one way with this and I'm so bored of it. My nephew loved us and has a season ticket, I asked him today how he is so dedicated but he loves it anyways. I told him one day he will see is be successful again but it won't be Intel there's change, relegation is the only thing that will bring about that change Is this a hint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This is our year lads and it's going to hurt. However I'm at the point where I think it needs to happen for their to be a revolt and finally get rid of this stage horrible set up we have. Don't reply with the relegation isn't a good thing etc because I know that but we are only going one way with this and I'm so bored of it. My nephew loved us and has a season ticket, I asked him today how he is so dedicated but he loves it anyways. I told him one day he will see is be successful again but it won't be Intel there's change, relegation is the only thing that will bring about that change What on earth makes you think this?? We are midtable where we have always wanted to be. We have one of the best defensive records in the Premier League this season, our possession stats are up and we have Benteke back, onwards and...........................upwards maybe?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daz316 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Lop behave forever young. We passed sideways against Sunderland and palace and couldn't penetrate them if they'd lubed up and guided it in! Lambert loves gabby and weimann and as long as they are there taking up space they will kill our attacks dead with their touch and poor footballing brains. Lambert has no ur and we won't be mid table in a few weeks that's for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest av1 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 At the current rate we will end up with 20 goals. We are going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 At the current rate we will end up with 20 goals. We are going down. You could make a case if we scrape four more 1-0 wins and four 0-0s this season we end up on our annual 38 points...and that has been enough the last few seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 how are everton that less likely than us? I think Everton are less likely than us to go down. You don't?! I think it's closer than people are making out, collymore for example tonight was refusing to have them in the relegation mix I don't think they've got a great depth to the squad and they have the Europa still, could easily get 1/2 injuries which would impact them harder than I think it would impact us, look at our CB injuries for example, we've coped, that would hit Everton really hard Plus I suppose it's your opinion on what's worse, not being able to score or not being able to keep clean sheets, I think we're more likely to knick a 1-0 than they are a 2-1 Lukaku and benteke both need rockets up their asses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Everton are poor but they still beat QPR comfortably recently and also won very easily at Burnley not so long ago. They'll beat enough of the bottom 6 teams (although they might be one soon enough!) They'll finish above us aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest av1 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 At the current rate we will end up with 20 goals. We are going down. You could make a case if we scrape four more 1-0 wins and four 0-0s this season we end up on our annual 38 points...and that has been enough the last few seasons. The trouble is, its difficult to see where our next win is coming from. Its all got that when not if Wigan feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DamsonwoodVillan Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 (edited) It will be whichever teams can string a run of results together stay up. I think Burnley are there fighting at the moment but I'm not convinced they will sustain it through to the end of April. I think (hope) that Leicester and QPR will drop too many points they should have taken. Right now those 3 are my pick to go down... but in the relegation worries we've had with Lambert in the past I've always felt we have had goals in us, and the players to take the chances in crucial games. This season I'm not sure we do. Edited January 1, 2015 by DamsonwoodVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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