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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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39 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

They barely have any attackers fit.

I actually thought the point at Molineux earlier this season was pretty good as it was achieved in a similar manner to today and majority agree today was a good point. They'd just beaten Man. City the week before after all.

The problem last season was Unai having massive respect for Lopetegui and I think he overthought the two games and we conceded early and it was a massive struggle.

Basically we need to be attacking the Holte in the first half and score in first 20 minutes and then we will be o.k.

Think Cunha will be back and starting at VP tbh. 

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33 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Think Cunha will be back and starting at VP tbh. 

Yup but Hwang and Neto out. Hopefully Cunha is rusty. Likewise Dawson.

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Not the worst result in the world, we gained a point on them, they have a game in hand so it’s all square if they win their game in hand.

we must win our easier games though like wolves in a couple of weeks, if we want to finish in 4th.

we probably only need a few wins to finish above Utd 

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Still worried about Man U. They win that game in hand and they are only 6 points behind us. To rule them out would be foolish in my view. 

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19 minutes ago, Tayls said:

Still worried about Man U. They win that game in hand and they are only 6 points behind us. To rule them out would be foolish in my view. 

Ruling them out would be foolish, but their GD is poop and they’ve got several tricky games left (Chelsea and Brighton away, Liverpool, Arsenal and Newcastle at home).

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26 minutes ago, Tayls said:

Still worried about Man U. They win that game in hand and they are only 6 points behind us. To rule them out would be foolish in my view. 

What is 18pt goal difference worth?

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1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

Think Cunha will be back and starting at VP tbh. 

Is he back in training? Didn't feature yesterday so guess he might last an hour. Hwang and Neto will be out which is important given how we conceded at Molineux.

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We could do with a poll to see how confident people really are of us getting 4th or 5th and whether that'll equal Champions League football! Is it just bravado/ excitement/ hope or do you truly believe?

I will admit that I am definitely a naturally negative person. Practically 40 years of being a Villa fan hasn't exactly helped my outlook. I genuinely just can't see us doing it. Is that based on reality or trauma?!

4th is looking a step too far. Injuries, suspensions and our harder run in than our rivals makes me feel this is beyond us. If we don't get 6 points from our next two home games, it's fairly safe to say we'll be fifth before Spurs hit their tricky triple header. We're not exactly known for taking our chances when opportunities arise.

So holding on to 5th... 9 points and GD ahead of United. But they have a game in hand, a ridiculously easy run in and the fear of being Man Utd, despite what recent years have shown. Teams will always fear Utd more than they worry about us. Maybe we can stay ahead of them, but wouldn't be placing huge money on it given our current team and form.

So even believing we finish 5th, will PL get 5th spot? Man City easily could be knocked out by Real Madrid, Arsenal will struggle with Bayern Munich and West Ham will lose to Leverkusen. That's not doom mongering, think most would agree. Liverpool should walk Europa and I'd hope we might make Final... although we've got hardest route possible basically.

I just can't see it all going for us. We are huffing and puffing, English teams have stuttered in Europe and... We're Villa.

 

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19 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

We could do with a poll to see how confident people really are of us getting 4th or 5th and whether that'll equal Champions League football! Is it just bravado/ excitement/ hope or do you truly believe?

 

 

It’s maths

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I'm not sure how Arsenal and Liverpool still to play at home is a ridiculously easy run in for Man. United. They also have terrible away records at Chelsea and Brighton if you look at their results away to them in last 5-6 years.

I would say it's pessimistic to think they'll just beat those two comfortably while we'll lose to them both.

I think at max Man. United will get about 64-65 points with what they have left so would mean we just need a point a game to finish above them so it's well within our capabilities. 

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I had them getting 21/22 points maximum and that was being way over the top with optimism on their behalf and with them not losing a game all season.

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Wolves are the comeback kings, they always win after a defeat, so that will be a tough game, even without Neto and Hwang, they will probably play a lot like West Ham did today, try and cause us problems from set-pieces and get in as many crosses as possible. They also aways seem to be much more fired up for the game than us, treat it like a derby, they will be fired up not just for their own European challenge, but would love to play their part in stopping us getting Champions League

We got difficult challenge ahead, as because two of the next four are Arsenal and Man City away, that puts a lot of pressure on us to get six points from Wolves and Brentford

Spurs

Luton (h), West Ham (a), Forest (h), Newcastle (a)

Man Utd

Brentford (a), Chelsea (a), Liverpool (h), Bournemouth (a)

 

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Don't get down people. Remember for the last few years we supporters were going through similar things. Only then it was hoping man u would stuff Leeds or Liverpool would stuff Norwich or man c would stuff southampton, Christ even if Everton could get a draw with palace, it could save us. Now it's a complete about turn, could forest get a draw with spuds, could Brentford get a draw with man u.

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1 hour ago, jackbauer24 said:

We could do with a poll to see how confident people really are of us getting 4th or 5th and whether that'll equal Champions League football! Is it just bravado/ excitement/ hope or do you truly believe?

I will admit that I am definitely a naturally negative person. Practically 40 years of being a Villa fan hasn't exactly helped my outlook. I genuinely just can't see us doing it. Is that based on reality or trauma?!

4th is looking a step too far. Injuries, suspensions and our harder run in than our rivals makes me feel this is beyond us. If we don't get 6 points from our next two home games, it's fairly safe to say we'll be fifth before Spurs hit their tricky triple header. We're not exactly known for taking our chances when opportunities arise.

So holding on to 5th... 9 points and GD ahead of United. But they have a game in hand, a ridiculously easy run in and the fear of being Man Utd, despite what recent years have shown. Teams will always fear Utd more than they worry about us. Maybe we can stay ahead of them, but wouldn't be placing huge money on it given our current team and form.

So even believing we finish 5th, will PL get 5th spot? Man City easily could be knocked out by Real Madrid, Arsenal will struggle with Bayern Munich and West Ham will lose to Leverkusen. That's not doom mongering, think most would agree. Liverpool should walk Europa and I'd hope we might make Final... although we've got hardest route possible basically.

I just can't see it all going for us. We are huffing and puffing, English teams have stuttered in Europe and... We're Villa.

 

Put it this way, from the last 5 games we have 10 points all the others in contention have less.

Since Christmas we feel our form has dipped but we are still in 4th!

Do we believe that:

1. Our form will get worse

2. Two teams below us will better our results. 

3. English teams in Europe will collapse?

We just have to back ourselves here.

 

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55 minutes ago, useless said:

Spurs

Luton (h), West Ham (a), Forest (h), Newcastle (a)

Man Utd

Brentford (a), Chelsea (a), Liverpool (h), Bournemouth (a)

I'll go 7 points for Spurs, 4 points for Man Utd from that

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