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Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23


messi11

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I think that our Europa League chances are pretty decent. This is what needs to happen:

We win both of our remaining matches. Easier said than done given that we're playing Liverpool and Brighton, but that would give us 63 points.

Spurs drop points in at least one match. That could very well happen against a good Brentford team or against a Leeds desperate to survive on the last day. That would give them 61 points tops.

Brighton drop points against either Manchester City or Soton (not likely against the latter, but highly likely against he former) and lose to us (as mentioned above). Loss to us, draw with City, win over Soton would give them 62 points.

Really, of all those contingencies, the one I'm most worried about is us beating Liverpool, and Klopp won't be in the stadium now to manage the match, so our chances just improved.

I'd say our odds are worse than 1-in-2 but better than 1-in-3. I can't help but be hopeful.

 

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6 minutes ago, TomC said:

I think that our Europa League chances are pretty decent. This is what needs to happen:

We win both of our remaining matches. Easier said than done given that we're playing Liverpool and Brighton, but that would give us 63 points.

Spurs drop points in at least one match. That could very well happen against a good Brentford team or against a Leeds desperate to survive on the last day. That would give them 61 points tops.

Brighton drop points against either Manchester City or Soton (not likely against the latter, but highly likely against he former) and lose to us (as mentioned above). Loss to us, draw with City, win over Soton would give them 62 points.

Really, of all those contingencies, the one I'm most worried about is us beating Liverpool, and Klopp won't be in the stadium now to manage the match, so our chances just improved.

I'd say our odds are worse than 1-in-2 but better than 1-in-3. I can't help but be hopeful.

 

It's a touchline ban which is basically nothing in this day and age. He still picks the team, he still manages the game, he just does it from the stands. I highly doubt their is any statistical disadvantage to having coaches away from the bench other than inconvenience. 

The most likely scenario is we lose to Liverpool. They've lost once at home, their form is currently brilliant and, frankly, they're a much better team that has underperformed most the year.

Therefore, our attention turns to Spurs vs Brentford and Brighton vs Saints. To have any hope of being about Spurs or Brighton we need them not to win those games. Arguably the Brighton v Saints game is more important as they then face Man City so should get nothing and we can at least go to theirs with it in our hands. Can't see Spurs getting less points than us from Brentford and Leeds compared to Liverpool and Brighton fixtures.

Weirdly, this weekend it is probably more important what Spurs and Brighton do than we do!

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I think the Newcastle win gave a feeling to Liverpool like Brighton wins against Utd and Arsenal to us. Made us going to Wolves with a lot of doubts then have a meltdown after winning against Spurs.

To keep it in our hands we need a win at Liverpool, or Brighton failing to win against Southampton. Both unlikely but doable. We also have a critical game before both which could increase our chances, Spurs against Brentford.

Liverpool uncertainty by not having big chances for CL while still having a slim chance could go to our hands. Hopefully we can play that while Spurs losing to Brentford.

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11 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

We need Southampton to snatch a draw against Brighton and it’s very much on. 

We need to draw or beat Liverpool for there to be any sort of slim hope still.

Edited by JAMAICAN-VILLAN
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1 hour ago, TomC said:

I think that our Europa League chances are pretty decent. This is what needs to happen:

We win both of our remaining matches. Easier said than done given that we're playing Liverpool and Brighton, but that would give us 63 points.

Spurs drop points in at least one match. That could very well happen against a good Brentford team or against a Leeds desperate to survive on the last day. That would give them 61 points tops.

Brighton drop points against either Manchester City or Soton (not likely against the latter, but highly likely against he former) and lose to us (as mentioned above). Loss to us, draw with City, win over Soton would give them 62 points.

Really, of all those contingencies, the one I'm most worried about is us beating Liverpool, and Klopp won't be in the stadium now to manage the match, so our chances just improved.

I'd say our odds are worse than 1-in-2 but better than 1-in-3. I can't help but be hopeful.

 

We'd be very unfortunate to win both of our games and still not qualify. 1-4 points might be enough.

15 minutes ago, DevonIsAPlaceOnEarth said:

If we miraculously win at Anfield and Spurs lose against Brentford, we could play out the most dull draw in football history against Brighton on the final day.

And who gets to go into the Europa?

5 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

We need to draw or beat Liverpool for their to be any sort of slim hope still.

Not necessarily to catch Spurs, but we'll know before the game because they play the early kick off.

Edited by fightoffyour
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5 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Liverpool have lost once at home in the premier league all season...

So you're saying there's a chance...

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39 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Liverpool have lost once at home in the premier league all season...

Arsenal had only lost once at home before Brighton went there the other day and beat them.   So there is a chance even if small…

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10 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Don’t be, whatever happens is a massive bonus.

We get 6th and we’ll be bouncing over the rooftops

We get 7th, it’s fantastic and we have a great chance of a cup next season, a season of getting used to all the extra games, expand the squad etc

We get 8th, a brilliant 2nd half to the season, highest points total for over a decade I think, respected in the league again, attractive to new quality recruits and the ability next season to focus solely on the league and European spots next season.

 

Win, win, win!  It’s all upside whatever happens the next two games…

This!

I have never been so relaxed as a Villa fan.

Why?

Because this season can't end in misery which is almost a trophy in itself...

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