Generic Virus Thread

[Stevo985]

29 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Am I missing something? We are in the mist of easing lockdown but still posting an average of 500 a day dying. Should it not be around 200 and dipping by now. By the end of all this we will be touching close to 100k

I guess it goes back to the people dying today were actually infected 2 or 3 weeks ago. So it's probably the number of new infections that are more important now that the number of deaths are going down.

i.e. the assumption will be that deaths will continue to go down as long as new infections don't rise.

 

Those are just guesses. 
I do agree with your end figure though. Maybe not quite, but if the excess deaths of around 60k are accurate then we won't be a million miles away from 100k by the end of this

[mjmooney]

When is "the end of this" going to be? 

[ml1dch]

46 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

I guess it goes back to the people dying today were actually infected 2 or 3 weeks ago. So it's probably the number of new infections that are more important now that the number of deaths are going down.

Presumably his point though, is what were those people doing two weeks ago that meant they got infected?

Given that we were nearly a month into lockdown by then. 

[PaulC]

2 hours ago, foreveryoung said:

Am I missing something? We are in the mist of easing lockdown but still posting an average of 500 a day dying. Should it not be around 200 and dipping by now. By the end of all this we will be touching close to 100k

I make the average 378 over the last 7 days. Just under 2500 new cases over the last 24 hours. it is dropping but need to keep it that way. 

[Stevo985]

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

Presumably his point though, is what were those people doing two weeks ago that meant they got infected?

Given that we were nearly a month into lockdown by then. 

I don’t know. But if the number is going down we’re essentially 2 weeks in front of that aren’t we? So you kind of have to extrapolate it to a death toll 2 weeks from now. 
 

Im not defending lifting the lockdown. It’s still too early imo. Just think that’s the logic

[Brumstopdogs]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-18/over-100-million-in-china-s-northeast-thrown-back-under-lockdown

Quote

Some 108 million people in China’s northeast region are being plunged back under lockdown conditions as a new and growing cluster of infections causes a backslide in the nation’s return to normal.

In an abrupt reversal of the re-opening taking place across the nation, cities in Jilin province have cut off trains and buses, shut schools and quarantined tens of thousands of people. The strict measures have dismayed many residents who had thought the worst of the nation’s epidemic was over.

 

People “are feeling more cautious again,” said Fan Pai, who works at a trading company in Shenyang, a city in nearby Liaoning province that’s also facing renewed restrictions. “Children playing outside are wearing masks again” and health care workers are walking around in protective gear, she said. “It’s frustrating because you don’t know when it will end.”

 

While the cluster of 34 infections isn’t growing as quickly the outbreak in Wuhan which started the global pandemic last December, China’s swift and powerful reaction reflects its fear of a second wave after it curbed the virus’s spread at great economic and social cost. It’s also a sign of how fragile the re-opening process will be in China and elsewhere as even the slightest hint of a resurgence of infections could prompt a return to strict lockdown.

 

 

 

 

[maqroll]

3 hours ago, mjmooney said:

When is "the end of this" going to be? 

[Chindie]

4 hours ago, mjmooney said:

When is "the end of this" going to be? 

Never.

/

[chrisp65]

One day, these will be the good old days.

[NurembergVillan]

2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

One day, these will be the good old days.

NGL, didn't foresee Brexit as being the highlight of the last 5 years.

[leighavfc]

Well my mother in law is now on ICU with Covid.... been in and out of hospital over past 2 weeks. Has got worse day by day this week. Her and my brother were the two people i worried about when this all became real early March.. Shes battled cancer recently...im just praying she pulls through this one

Currently on CPAP before the next stage being Ventilator... trying to stay positive as much as possible but genuinely worried where this is leading.

 

[theboyangel]

1 minute ago, leighavfc said:

Well my mother in law is now on ICU with Covid.... been in and out of hospital over past 2 weeks. Has got worse day by day this week. Her and my brother were the two people i worried about when this all became real early March.. Shes battled cancer recently...im just praying she pulls through this one

Currently on CPAP before the next stage being Ventilator... trying to stay positive as much as possible but genuinely worried where this is leading.

 

Hope she pulls through 

[ml1dch]

41 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said:

NGL, didn't foresee Brexit as being the highlight of the last 5 years.

Play-off final was pretty good to be fair.

[mjmooney]

6 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Play-off final was pretty good to be fair.

I was thinking about that today. Seems like a million years ago. 

[leighavfc]

7 hours ago, theboyangel said:

Hope she pulls through 

Thank you, she is fighter and has overcome a lot crap in her lifetime so far. Just praying that this is not the end....

[Dodgyknees]

@leighavfc thinking of you and your.family, mate.

Edited May 20, 2020 by avfcDJ

[NurembergVillan]

10 hours ago, ml1dch said:

Play-off final was pretty good to be fair.

As I've so often lamented, I was on a flight to New York so missed all of it. Getting the result in the arrivals hall was a moment that will live with me forever, though.

[NurembergVillan]

10 hours ago, leighavfc said:

Well my mother in law is now on ICU with Covid.... been in and out of hospital over past 2 weeks. Has got worse day by day this week. Her and my brother were the two people i worried about when this all became real early March.. Shes battled cancer recently...im just praying she pulls through this one

Currently on CPAP before the next stage being Ventilator... trying to stay positive as much as possible but genuinely worried where this is leading.

If it gives you any sort of hope, one of VT's founder members was on a ventilator a couple of weeks ago and given a 50/50 chance of survival.  His family couldn't speak to him because he was on so much medication, but after a week or so of stress and fear he was able to battle back and is on his feet again now.

I know there are loads of stories, and everyone who is ill is coming at it with a different capacity to fight, but the comeback tales aren't being reported - which is a shame because there are a lot of them.

Keep believing, be as strong as you can, don't be afraid to show weakness.

X

[bannedfromHandV]

3 hours ago, NurembergVillan said:

As I've so often lamented, I was on a flight to New York so missed all of it. Getting the result in the arrivals hall was a moment that will live with me forever, though.

Think I'd have been tempted to ring through a hoax bomb threat in those circumstances!

[bannedfromHandV]

The disproportionate numbers of infections and deaths in BAME communities has to be a cultural thing right?

I don't want to open up a can of worms but if there any no genetic differences then it has to come down to culture and behaviour surely?

In the US you'd think it could be attributed to poverty and class issues but I'm not entirely sure that would apply here, certainly not to the same extent at least.