Generic Virus Thread

[chrisp65]

14 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

The disproportionate numbers of infections and deaths in BAME communities has to be a cultural thing right?

I don't want to open up a can of worms but if there any no genetic differences then it has to come down to culture and behaviour surely?

In the US you'd think it could be attributed to poverty and class issues but I'm not entirely sure that would apply here, certainly not to the same extent at least.

 

I think it’s all of the above.

There are broadly speaking some genetic or health differences. A higher proportion of BAME would be poor or living in poor housing. There was a stat a few days ago along the lines of black families were half as likely as white families to have access to a garden. I doubt that’s because culturally they prefer high rise blocks.

But there could also be culture in there. I witnessed the scene outside a mosque yesterday and the pavement and road were full of men and women in large groups. It was so unusual at the moment, I actually thought at first there had been some sort of incident.

I think it’s a lot easier to stay safe if you can work from home, in your garden sun house, order your groceries on line and exercise on the treadmill in your garage. Certainly easier to stay safe than if you’re a bus driver that uses public transport to get to work and you live on the 6th floor of a block.

In broad sweeping general terms, sun house guy is more likely to be white. Bus driver guy is more likely to be black.

Same in hospitals etc., HR and payroll might be working from home, cleaners are not. I bet there’s a higher proportion of Asian cleaners than HR managers. Not exclusive, but on average. 

[bannedfromHandV]

1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

 

I think it’s all of the above.

There are broadly speaking some genetic or health differences. A higher proportion of BAME would be poor or living in poor housing. There was a stat a few days ago along the lines of black families were half as likely as white families to have access to a garden. I doubt that’s because culturally they prefer high rise blocks.

But there could also be culture in there. I witnessed the scene outside a mosque yesterday and the pavement and road were full of men and women in large groups. It was so unusual at the moment, I actually thought at first there had been some sort of incident.

I think it’s a lot easier to stay safe if you can work from home, in your garden sun house, order your groceries on line and exercise on the treadmill in your garage. Certainly easier to stay safe than if you’re a bus driver that uses public transport to get to work and you live on the 6th floor of a block.

In broad sweeping general terms, sun house guy is more likely to be white. Bus driver guy is more likely to be black.

Same in hospitals etc., HR and payroll might be working from home, cleaners are not. I bet there’s a higher proportion of Asian cleaners than HR managers. Not exclusive, but on average. 

Yeah, hard to argue against any of that.

I can just imagine a level of indifference, particular in (as you above reference) heavily religious communities.

But then yeah, I guess the poverty and class thing still applies here too in reality, despite everyone having access to the same health service.

[chrisp65]

I know some quite religious people. They’ve closed their church building because the building is not the church, the people are.

They have regular meetings on skype. They all have a nice bookcase in a nice corner with good WiFi and the camera on the ipad is excellent. I’d hazard a guess that on average they are retired professionals (as a very sweeping guess). Roughly, I’d say there are 40 or 50 of them, I can only think of one person in that congregation that isn’t white. 

So you can be very religious and stay safe, you just need an ipad and broadband.

So there really is a lot of nuance in all these things. The data crunching at the end is going to be fascinating. Just mentioned on VT the numbers of variables being proposed are vast, age, sex, smoker, BMI, BAME, wealth, fitness, co-morbidities, size of household, type of accommodation, profession, pre existing debt, educational attainment, genetics, access to ppe, attitude towards ppe...

I guess one route, would be to study a number of ethnically different countries and see if everyone across all wealth and housing and education backgrounds was equally impacted. My money would be on rich, educated Nigerians, Iranians and Brazilians doing marginally better than poor unemployed Nigerians, Iranians and Brazilians etc. But that’s a guess based on my usual default of poverty and lack of education being the root of all evil. 

Statisticians wet dream.

[HanoiVillan]

Is this a glimpse three or four weeks into the future?

70 cases of Covid-19 linked to French schools days after reopening

'Just one week after a third of French children went back to school in an easing of the coronavirus lockdown, there has been a worrying flare-up of about 70 Covid-19 cases linked to schools.

Some schools were opened last week and a further 150,000 junior high students went back to the classroom on Monday as further restrictions were loosened by the government.

The move initially led to relief: The end of homeschooling for hundreds of thousands of exhausted French parents, many of whom were also working from home.

But French education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer sounded the alarm on Monday, telling French radio RTL that the return has put some children in new danger of contamination. He said the affected schools are being closed immediately. French media reported that seven schools in northern France were closed.'

more on link: https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/70-cases-of-covid-19-linked-to-french-schools-days-after-reopening/18/05/

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Is this a glimpse three or four weeks into the future?

70 cases of Covid-19 linked to French schools days after reopening

'Just one week after a third of French children went back to school in an easing of the coronavirus lockdown, there has been a worrying flare-up of about 70 Covid-19 cases linked to schools.

Some schools were opened last week and a further 150,000 junior high students went back to the classroom on Monday as further restrictions were loosened by the government.

The move initially led to relief: The end of homeschooling for hundreds of thousands of exhausted French parents, many of whom were also working from home.

But French education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer sounded the alarm on Monday, telling French radio RTL that the return has put some children in new danger of contamination. He said the affected schools are being closed immediately. French media reported that seven schools in northern France were closed.'

more on link: https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/70-cases-of-covid-19-linked-to-french-schools-days-after-reopening/18/05/

I really hope we learn from those that are trying things before us.

Like the usual viruses and bugs that kids get (chicken pox, measles, nits, colds etc) Covid-19 will go round like wildfire if just one child brings it in to school.

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

I really hope we learn from those that are trying things before us.

Like the usual viruses and bugs that kids get (chicken pox, measles, nits, colds etc) Covid-19 will go round like wildfire if just one child brings it in to school.

I agree, and I just don't see how it is possible for schools to open and remain open until there is much much less transmission in the general population than we have currently.

[LondonLax]

31 minutes ago, Genie said:

I really hope we learn from those that are trying things before us.

Like the usual viruses and bugs that kids get (chicken pox, measles, nits, colds etc) Covid-19 will go round like wildfire if just one child brings it in to school.

It actually doesn’t seem to though. It goes through care homes like wildfire but in children they don’t usually even get a cough so they are not snotting everywhere or sneezing everywhere or coughing and spluttering, they are usually asymptomatic which makes it more difficult for the virus to spread. From what I’ve read, if it spread between children the way colds and flu usually do we would have way more infected than we do. It’s a bit on an unusual virus in that regard. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by LondonLax

[ml1dch]

Government:

Also Government:

 

 

[chrisp65]

If kids are such poor transmitters of covid, it does make you wonder where they are getting it from? Do lots of these children work the front line in care homes on the weekends?

Surely its simply a case of when its safe for royal kids to go to school, and when its safe for ministers kids to go to school and when its safe for MP’s to return to Westminster, then its safe for your kids to go back to schools everywhere.

It doesn’t feel complicated?

 

 

 

[chrisp65]

Bank Holiday weekend coming up and the government has said people in England can drive wherever they like.

Looks like most drivers took that to mean Devon.

 

 

 

I wonder if the government were lead by the science when they said people should use their common sense?

 

[trekka]

18 hours ago, leighavfc said:

Well my mother in law is now on ICU with Covid.... been in and out of hospital over past 2 weeks. Has got worse day by day this week. Her and my brother were the two people i worried about when this all became real early March.. Shes battled cancer recently...im just praying she pulls through this one

Currently on CPAP before the next stage being Ventilator... trying to stay positive as much as possible but genuinely worried where this is leading.

 

I'm really sorry to hear that.  Sending you and your family all of the best wishes. 

[Villarocker]

30 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Bank Holiday weekend coming up and the government has said people in England can drive wherever they like.

Looks like most drivers took that to mean Devon.

 

 

 

I wonder if the government were lead by the science when they said people should use their common sense?

 

Exactly! What did they expect? It was like saying to a kid that hadn't had sweets for a month that tomorrow were are going to the sweet shop. Always going to be chaos once off the leash. 

[Villarocker]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

If kids are such poor transmitters of covid, it does make you wonder where they are getting it from? Do lots of these children work the front line in care homes on the weekends?

Surely its simply a case of when its safe for royal kids to go to school, and when its safe for ministers kids to go to school and when its safe for MP’s to return to Westminster, then its safe for your kids to go back to schools everywhere.

It doesn’t feel complicated?

 

 

 

Think it is simply a case of sending the minions kids first for a couple of months to see how it affects them. If OK then they will send their darlings off to private school. If not OK, they will hold off until proven safe. 

[trekka]

I have a mini battle of my own trying to persuade my parents (who are shielding) to stay indoors.  I live 160 miles away and so it is difficult.  

They've mentioned a few times that they could come down for a day to say hello.  I found out last week that they popped to the local Halfords to buy stuff for their van so it appears they're gearing up for it 

I know it is really difficult for them and as a family we are doing our best to support them.  I keep on having to tell them that they've done 2 months and now is not the time to be complacent.  So difficult. 

[OutByEaster?]

Interesting to watch the medical chap on today's briefing - he was presenting a number of graphs showing reductions in admissions, case numbers, new cases and deaths and talking about us being past the peak of the virus - he was very clear that this was in no small part down to our efforts on Social Distancing, in fact, he repeated the link between things getting better and social distancing by saying the phrase social distancing are 15-20 times in around three minutes. What he didn't say at all in the entire time he was up there were he words, lockdown or isolation. It looked to me like the continuation of the presentation of a narrative that disconnects lockdown from any progress in preventing the spread of the virus; one that says, "You can get back to work".

 

[OutByEaster?]

6 minutes ago, trekka said:

I know it is really difficult for them and as a family we are doing our best to support them.  I keep on having to tell them that they've done 2 months and now is not the time to be complacent.  So difficult. 

I've got similar trouble with my mom who would love to visit family, it's especially difficult given the deliberately confusing message on this that the government are giving out - on the one hand saying stay indoors because it's it's dangerous, but also do go to work because the banks need the money.

[Xela]

15 minutes ago, Villarocker said:

Exactly! What did they expect? It was like saying to a kid that hadn't had sweets for a month that tomorrow were are going to the sweet shop. Always going to be chaos once off the leash. 

Government gave the general public too much credit. Haven't they seen the general public?

 

[rjw63]

Went to see my Mom last saturday, first time in 8 weeks.

It's not her that's at risk, it's my sister & brother in law who live next door, both have serious underlying health issues and haven't been out for the duration.

Regarding ethnic people and the virus, my wife teaches at a 100% Muslim school, and a lot of her colleagues (who are also Muslim) are enraged that a huge percentage of the Muslim community are not taking any notice of social distancing

[sne]

11 minutes ago, rjw63 said:

Regarding ethnic people and the virus, my wife teaches at a 100% Muslim school, and a lot of her colleagues (who are also Muslim) are enraged that a huge percentage of the Muslim community are not taking any notice of social distancing

Ramadan coming to an end and the Eid al-Fitr celebration in a few days. Not sure how the Muslim world will handle that this year.

[snowychap]

14 minutes ago, Xela said:

Government gave the general public too much credit. Haven't they seen the general public?

Not up close.