Generic Virus Thread

[snowychap]

6 hours ago, Genie said:

I wouldn’t have an issue charging China a big premium. The source of the virus, guilty of false/under reporting of the issue and in day to day business charge the rest of the world enormous fees to sell into its market. 

Singling out China could lead to China refusing to pay and developing their own version of a vaccine which may be less effective and thus put their population and surrounding populations at risk, which may also lead to an increase in state-sponsored industrial espionage in order to try and get the IP; it could also lead to even less co-operation internationally in the future in any similar situation or in a case where China were to develop treatments or vaccines for other diseases and illnesses.

So the people paying the actual price would, firstly, be the Chinese people and, secondly, other individuals who may also subsequently be at risk if the Chinese government decided not to be squeezed for this apparently vindictively-set financial price. And, in the end, the whole world because it would just be a further race to the bottom similar to the kinds of trade wars that countries think they'll end up 'winning'.

If the lessons we learn from this crisis and others is not that more international co-operation is the way forward but rather that aggressive foreign policies based on protectionism and self-interest (immediate first-order self-interest at that as these thoughts rarely look beyond what is directly ahead) then it will be a really grim outcome to the whole thing on top of all of the lives lost and adverse health outcomes.

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by snowychap

[Stevo985]

3 minutes ago, Genie said:

If China developed a vaccine do you think they’d let us, and the other developed nations have it for cost price? Not a chance.

I don't think that's a very good reason for doing the same thing to them.

 

[Genie]

One sided cooperation from everyone apart from China isn’t “fair”. They continue to over charge everybody who wants to do business with them.

Maybe we could recover money in a less direct way, for example a reduction in the 100-120% import duty they charge for luxury cars. 

[snowychap]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

If China developed a vaccine so you think they’d let us, and the other developed nation have it for cost price? Not a chance.

If other countries in the world cannot act in a better and more just manner than the CCP then we're all right royally ****.

The ethical benchmark for governments, countries and economic blocs should not be the Chinese government.

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

I don't think that's a very good reason for doing the same thing to them.

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. They have billions and billions in the bank as a result of massive tariffs on the developed countries selling into their market and took many millions off us recently for dud tests that couldn’t be used. I bet they have not had PPE shortfalls as most of it is made out there, and didn’t get on the phone offering us more.

Not offering it to them would be completely unfair, offering it at a price they can afford and that reflects the same approach to supply/demand they continue to adopt is reasonable (imo).

[Stevo985]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. They have billions and billions in the bank as a result of massive tariffs on the developed countries selling into their market and took many millions off us recently for dud tests that couldn’t be used. I bet they have not had PPE shortfalls as most of it is made out there, and didn’t get on the phone offering us more.

Not offering it to them would be completely unfair, offering it at a price they can afford and that reflects the same approach to supply/demand they continue to adopt is reasonable (imo).

I think as others have said you'd be punishing their population for things their government have done. Stooping to the depths of a government you don't like just because they might do it to other people is a pretty shitty way of operating. The world would be absolutely **** if that's how things worked.

I'm not saying there shouldn't be sanctions or repercussions on China for their part in all this (I'm not saying there should either just that I'm not against it if it's justified) but this would not be the way to do it.

Oh and I'm pretty sure we've had tens of millions of units of PPE from China and thousands of ventilators, many of which were donations. A lot of which was a response to the fact we donated PPE to Wuhan when they were going through it. Which I guess is another example of why it pays to rise above what they might do and instead just do the right thing.

Edited May 18, 2020 by Stevo985

[Chindie]

You'd also think we'd want to batter this virus as much as possible if we can vaccinate against it, which wouldn't appear to be possible of we disincentivise the most populous country on the planet to vaccinate it's population.

[Genie]

Just now, Stevo985 said:

I think as others have said you'd be punishing their population for things their government have done. Stooping to the depths of a government you don't like just because they might do it to other people is a pretty shitty way of operating. The world would be absolutely **** if that's how things worked.

I think it’s the way things work already.

In the UK we’re in a financial slump bigger than anything that has ever been recorded and it will take decades to get out of. Hundreds of thousands of people here losing their jobs, livelihoods and homes. I bet China doesn’t even go into recession. A very large proportion of the UK depression and massive loss of life is due to China and its handling of the outbreak. Is it not reasonable to recover as much back from their enormous cash reserves to make the innocent people of the UK more comfortable?

[Stevo985]

Just now, Genie said:

I think it’s the way things work already.

It really really is not

Just now, Genie said:

In the UK we’re in a financial slump bigger than anything that has ever been recorded and it will take decades to get out of. Hundreds of thousands of people here losing their jobs, livelihoods and homes. I bet China doesn’t even go into recession. A very large proportion of the UK depression and massive loss of life is due to China and its handling of the outbreak. Is it not reasonable to recover as much back from their enormous cash reserves to make the innocent people of the UK more comfortable?

No. Not in the way you've suggested anyway.

[Seat68]

19 minutes ago, Genie said:

One sided cooperation from everyone apart from China isn’t “fair”. They continue to over charge everybody who wants to do business with them.

Maybe we could recover money in a less direct way, for example a reduction in the 100-120% import duty they charge for luxury cars. 

Is this correct. Maybe my google search isnt phrased right but I couldn’t find evidence for this.  

[HanoiVillan]

6 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Oh and I'm pretty sure we've had tens of millions of units of PPE from China and thousands of ventilators, many of which were donations. A lot of which was a response to the fact we donated PPE to Wuhan when they were going through it. Which I guess is another example of why it pays to rise above what they might do and instead just do the right thing.

This is true, and has gone largely under-reported IMO.

I'm another one in the 'the race to the bottom is a bad idea' group. Quite apart from anything else, large parts of our economy will benefit from easier trade and travel from China, so this has the effect of cutting our noses off.

[Stevo985]

4 minutes ago, Seat68 said:

Is this correct. Maybe my google search isnt phrased right but I couldn’t find evidence for this.  

We were always told at JLR that our cars cost double in China because they had 100% tax on luxury cars

[Chindie]

13 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Oh and I'm pretty sure we've had tens of millions of units of PPE from China and thousands of ventilators, many of which were donations. A lot of which was a response to the fact we donated PPE to Wuhan when they were going through it. Which I guess is another example of why it pays to rise above what they might do and instead just do the right thing.

Just to back up this point.

Through my job I was privy to exactly this kind of situation going on. A UK company that worked with a Chinese supplier helped them out when the virus started hitting China hard by returning a bunch of stock. When it started here in earnest, that Chinese supplier leant on their own connections to get stuff back to us and returning the favour (to say the least - they went to an extent that went beyond just shipping back a load of supplies in kind).

[Dodgyknees]

Completely wrong to demonise people in China just because their leaders are nutters. It isn't their fault that things were hidden or kept secret 

If we can get a vaccination sorted it should be for ALL people. 

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

We were always told at JLR that our cars cost double in China because they had 100% tax on luxury cars

The result is it’s far more economical to build cars within China, which China will only allow if you have a 50/50 partnership with a local Chinese company. It’s secures lots of jobs and revenue for the people of China.

Its another example where they take, take, take from the Western world. This is the kind of thing that Trump was very angry about when he took office. They have huge import tariffs making it very difficult to sell to them, and will only allow business within if you’re giving local Chinese people jobs and half the profit stays in China. Nobody else (as far as I am aware) plays this way with them.

We could be the good guys (if we were in such a position) and offer them the vaccine at cost price. Prolong our own depression whilst their economy booms, take out billions in loans to give benefits to those who can’t work here... or we can try and take back a few quid that we’ve been taken for over the past decade and ease some of the problems at home (which they helped create). I’d do the latter, but appreciate others would not agree.

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, avfcDJ said:

Completely wrong to demonise people in China just because their leaders are nutters. 

If it impacted the people of China then I’d agree, it it won’t. It wouldn’t touch the sides of their cash reserves and booming economy.

[chrisp65]

I think a fair and equitable trading relationship with China is obviously a better idea than a one sided arrangement.

I’m sure we left the EU for exactly that reason, the EU was stifling our ability to get better trading terms out of China. Now we are free of EU incompetence we’ll see far better trading conditions that will more than make up for the loss in EU trade. 

Not absolutely sure the threat of withholding a vaccine that could save lives is really the correct starting point though. Maybe start with cheap plastic tat, 5G phones, and steel and gradually work our way up to a medicines and health war.

 

[bannedfromHandV]

24 minutes ago, Genie said:

I think it’s the way things work already.

In the UK we’re in a financial slump bigger than anything that has ever been recorded and it will take decades to get out of. Hundreds of thousands of people here losing their jobs, livelihoods and homes. I bet China doesn’t even go into recession. A very large proportion of the UK depression and massive loss of life is due to China and its handling of the outbreak. Is it not reasonable to recover as much back from their enormous cash reserves to make the innocent people of the UK more comfortable?

I don’t think it will take decades to get over, nowhere near in fact.

This recession is totally artificial and simple, barely anything is open so barely anything is claiming revenue.

Once the floodgates open up again it’ll be kickstarted back into life, sure there’ll be a recovery period but I think it’ll be measured in months, not years and certainly not decades.

Though in the interest of fairness, I’m far from an expert and this is just my opinion.

[Stevo985]

9 minutes ago, Genie said:

We could be the good guys (if we were in such a position) and offer them the vaccine at cost price. Prolong our own depression whilst their economy booms, take out billions in loans to give benefits to those who can’t work here... or we can try and take back a few quid that we’ve been taken for over the past decade and ease some of the problems at home (which they helped create). I’d do the latter, but appreciate others would not agree.

I'd choose the former and I'd be livid if our government chose the latter.

And as others have said, the latter would probably help to prolong the financial impact of this anyway due to China viewing us less favourably with trade deals and the like. Which will be especially important once we've driven off the Brexit cliff.

Edited May 18, 2020 by Stevo985

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, bannedfromHandV said:

I don’t think it will take decades to get over, nowhere near in fact.

This recession is totally artificial and simple, barely anything is open so barely anything is claiming revenue.

Once the floodgates open up again it’ll be kickstarted back into life, sure there’ll be a recovery period but I think it’ll be measured in months, not years and certainly not decades.

Though in the interest of fairness, I’m far from an expert and this is just my opinion.

 

I’d suspect that there will be some change to the economy. It’s looking like a lot of white collar jobs might be changing to a work from home model.

So immediately we’ll need less office space. My own office has the lease due up in August, we’re looking at getting the rent halved or finding somewhere half the size. There are impacts there from sandwich sellers, to pension funds, to cleaners’ jobs, to train ticket offices.

As for floodgates of money, let’s see when thousands next attend a football match, or Alton Towers, or Les Miserables. If west end shows aren’t jam packed of people squeezed in to Victorian seats, then the shops and bars outside will suffer, as will the hotels, as will Megabus.

If I’m working from home, I won’t be using the petrol station so I won’t be buying snacks. But I will be spending more on heating and lighting my own home. I might get some improved lighting for zoom calls in the winter. i might do more home improvements and upgrade the reach of my WiFi.

But the cafe in my office has seen the last of me.

I think there could be quite a shake up of what businesses come out the other side of this.