Generic Virus Thread

[terrytini]

Can’t believe we are still hearing the “ would’ve died anyway” ideas

[terrytini]

4 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

Yep, I get that now, it's what I didn't realise an hour or so ago - I'm naively assumed that you died, got a death certificate and that certificate was then counted for the next day - which I think was Sharky's original point about people (like me) not understanding the data. 

I'm now just trying to understand the figures that Sharky had mentioned and the NHS charts - according to the NHS charts we know about 105 deaths yesterday so far - that figure will rise significantly over the next week or so, makes sense to me - I'm just wondering if I'm missing anything in the NHS charts where Sharky had originally said 350.

 

For completeness I’d add that not all deaths are Post Mortem’d and checked for Co-Vid, the existing requirement was relaxed a few weeks ago. 

[LakotaDakota]

1 month ago (20th march) the total deaths this year in England/Wales were just under 5,000 down on the 5 year average, The graph above seems to suggest that a fair amount of this is down to flu deaths being significantly lower than average most weeks. Is the thought that Covid has killed many of these people that would usually (going on the same average figures you keep using to argue your case) die from flu really that wild of a theory?

Edited April 26, 2020 by LakotaDakota

[Stevo985]

6 hours ago, blandy said:

This Covid business. It involves health, defence, transport, business, immigration, welfare, sport, policing, regions, other U.K. nations, basically all areas of government. And all of them early on, as pandemic planning showed, It’s the most serious threat to the UK as determined by the government’s own work over previous years. Johnson is a slacker, a wing-it merchant, and you know it. Everyone knows it.

Also the Tories are telling us Covid has been Johnson’s number 1 priority AND that he’s been leading the fight. 
 

I could understand missing the odd meeting. But should a prime minister be missing FIVE cobra meetings in a row on something he’s apparently leading and is his number one priority. 
 

The answer is no. And like you say, everyone knows it. Even if they’re claiming not to. They know. 

[Stevo985]

1 minute ago, LakotaDakota said:

1 month ago (20th march) the total deaths this year in England/Wales were just under 5,000 down on the 5 year average, The graph above seems to siggest that a fair amount of this is down to flu deaths being significantly lower than average most weeks. Is the thought that Covid has killed many of these people that would usually (going on the same average figures you keep using to argue your case) die from flu really that wild of a theory?

What’s your point?

[LondonLax]

It was a mild winter and that seems to have lead to less flu deaths than usual but we’ve more than made up for that now. 

[blandy]

6 hours ago, terrytini said:

Can’t believe we are still hearing the “ would’ve died anyway” ideas

There’s a difference between using that “idea” to promote a course of action and using it to help understand an element of statistics. It’s morally wrong not to protect the vulnerable, or to treat them as expendable. That’s repellent.
In looking at a stat on thousands of deaths over a winter and analysing the breakdown, there will be a percentage who were already weakened by things, whose life expectancy would have been very short, whereby almost any illness or just time, would be the final straw for them, sadly, over that winter.

[blandy]

18 hours ago, Awol said:

Trimming advice? Where is the evidence that he was doing anything other than observing? Even if he was asking questions of the scientists I see no harm in that whatsoever, in fact it seems sensible and reasonable given his role.  

Cummings is a pantomime villain for the progressive left and his presence is like a thorn in their foot, a reminder of their serial political failure - hence the whining about his Brexit connections. It’s why even the mention of his name triggers so many people, and why I find it so amusing. 

Perhaps brexiteer Tory David Davis might be able to help disabuse you of your notion in this short video

Quote

Cummings 'should not be' at SAGE meetings 
https://news.sky.com/video/share-11978679

 

[markavfc40]

Why don't we release daily death figures for those that have died in care homes? I know it can take over a week for care home deaths to be recorded but the daily hospital death figures often relate to people who died weeks ago.

[mjmooney]

8 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

The difference between 'all deaths normally' and 'all deaths this year' is largely explained by coronavirus deaths. There were about 2,000 extra deaths unaccounted for in the week ending 10/04, which is probably both uncounted coronavirus deaths without a positive test, and also increased mortality for other things as a result of decreased hospital attendance or an overstretched medical system.

This, for me, is the simplest way of getting an idea of what's going on - probably the only statistic that means a damn. 

[Awol]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

Perhaps brexiteer Tory David Davis might be able to help disabuse you of your notion in this short video

 

 

What relevance does him being a Brexiteer have?! I think he’s wrong, for all the reasons already stated. Other people disagree, that’s fine. 
 

[LondonLax]

9 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Not really, because weekly deaths are about double what we would 'normally' expect, so it's consistent with both lots of 'normal' deaths and lots of coronavirus deaths. The difference between 'all deaths normally' and 'all deaths this year' is largely explained by coronavirus deaths. There were about 2,000 extra deaths unaccounted for in the week ending 10/04, which is probably both uncounted coronavirus deaths without a positive test, and also increased mortality for other things as a result of decreased hospital attendance or an overstretched medical system.

(from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020)

 

 

I agree with this post and excess deaths is the only way to get a handle on what is actually going on. However the bit in bold leads to an interesting discussion point in that excess fear of the virus can actually result in excess deaths that otherwise may not have occurred had the pandemic been treated differently by governments and the media. For example, I suspect people here in Sweden are not as fearful of going into a hospital if they need it compared with someone in the U.K.  

[Jareth]

Public opinion heading south on how government have handled the crisis - is it me or does it appear to correlate with frustration at being in lockdown and slim chances of exiting it - rather than any reaction to thousands of unnecessary deaths every day? 

[bannedfromHandV]

9 hours ago, terrytini said:

Can’t believe we are still hearing the “ would’ve died anyway” ideas

Why? 
 

It is an absolute fact that some will have, how many we don’t know of course but it’s 100% correct that some will have.

It’s sad, tragic in some cases, no one wants specific individuals to die but it’s a guaranteed eventuality for all of us, I don’t know why an adult conversation can’t take place on this.

 

It’s very ‘think of the children’ to just dismiss it so readily.

[sidcow]

9 hours ago, terrytini said:

Can’t believe we are still hearing the “ would’ve died anyway” ideas

Why? It's completely inevitable that some people would have died this year anyway.  It's not a weird crackpot theory, it's an absolute fact.  The already weak are massively at risk from this virus. 

The question is how many, I was just trying to understand the 10,000 extra deaths than normal with the 20,000 known deaths + unknown community death's. 

And as I said I thought the stats might be unreliable, I've tried to find the story again. 

[Genie]

Have the government ever shared any data about the occupancy of critical care beds versus capacity? 

[sharkyvilla]

15 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Public opinion heading south on how government have handled the crisis - is it me or does it appear to correlate with frustration at being in lockdown and slim chances of exiting it - rather than any reaction to thousands of unnecessary deaths every day? 

There haven't been thousands of deaths every day from the virus. 

[Stevo985]

5 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

There haven't been thousands of deaths every day from the virus. 

If you include deaths outside of hospitals there probably has been quite a few days of over a thousand deaths

[Seat68]

23 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Why? 
 

It is an absolute fact that some will have, how many we don’t know of course but it’s 100% correct that some will have.

It’s sad, tragic in some cases, no one wants specific individuals to die but it’s a guaranteed eventuality for all of us, I don’t know why an adult conversation can’t take place on this.

 

It’s very ‘think of the children’ to just dismiss it so readily.

Weren’t you an early adopter of the old and infirm being nothing more than collateral damage. The arguments then are the same now. 

[sidcow]

30 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Public opinion heading south on how government have handled the crisis - is it me or does it appear to correlate with frustration at being in lockdown and slim chances of exiting it - rather than any reaction to thousands of unnecessary deaths every day? 

And the constant reporting of PPE shortages when we are competing in a global market where demand is massively outstripping supply and producers simply can't keep up.

Yes they could have moved faster but with the quantities you hear they need I don't think they would have been able to get more than a couple of days ahead of where we are now. 

I await the barrage of criticism.