snowychap Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Sorry, I'm not sure I understand, apologies if I've missed your (or sharky's point) - I'd been looking at new deaths announced today (813) and that's higher than yesterday which was higher than the day before. However, it looks like from Sharky's post above that dying and being announced are no longer things that happen together. So from what I now understand, the governments announcement today that 813 more people have died is very different from the government announcing that 813 people have died today - correct? Yep. The figure that they announce today is the difference between today's total figure and yesterday's total figure but those deaths didn't occur only yesterday, they will have been deaths which occurred between yesterday and anything up to some time in March. They normally break that down somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted April 25, 2020 Moderator Share Posted April 25, 2020 Also, what's the feeling on the Financial Times' reported figure of over 41,000 deaths once we include people that have died outside hospitals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: Yay to me drinking!! It's only early, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said: Also, what's the feeling on the Financial Times' reported figure of over 41,000 deaths once we include people that have died outside hospitals? Horrendous if a true account. If USA sort their shit out we could end up being worst in the world. and the people still think our government have done a good job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Makes sense, so of the 813 deaths announced today, only 350 are from yesterday, the others have occurred over a range of dates over the past? The point with that is there will have been more than 350 deaths yesterday. There will be reports of those additional deaths in the future (in the same way that we're reporting the deaths from earlier in April now). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Also, what's the feeling on the Financial Times' reported figure of over 41,000 deaths once we include people that have died outside hospitals? That's Chris Giles's figure, isn't it? I haven't looked at it but I've read one of the threads where he talks about it and I seem to remember that he links to his methodology within that thread so it's certainly there to be shot at/discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted April 25, 2020 Moderator Share Posted April 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, snowychap said: The point with that is there will have been more than 350 deaths yesterday. There will be reports of those additional deaths in the future (in the same way that we're reporting the deaths from earlier in April now). Yep, I get that now, it's what I didn't realise an hour or so ago - I'm naively assumed that you died, got a death certificate and that certificate was then counted for the next day - which I think was Sharky's original point about people (like me) not understanding the data. I'm now just trying to understand the figures that Sharky had mentioned and the NHS charts - according to the NHS charts we know about 105 deaths yesterday so far - that figure will rise significantly over the next week or so, makes sense to me - I'm just wondering if I'm missing anything in the NHS charts where Sharky had originally said 350. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Makes sense, so of the 813 deaths announced today, only 350 are from yesterday, the others have occurred over a range of dates over the past? 813 is the total UK figure, of the English recorded deaths 343 (I'd estimated from the bar chart 350 but 343 seems the exact figure as you say) happened the day before yesterday, which always seems the biggest contributor to the total and the rest are compiled from yesterday all the way back to over a month ago. I assume they keep announcing the reported deaths because that's what they did from the start as it would have taken a period of time to get the data to get a reliable amount of data to analyse it, plus I think the general international standard is doing it by recorded deaths. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Yep, I get that, I'm just trying to understand the figures that Sharky had mentioned and the NHS charts - according to the NHS charts we know about 105 deaths yesterday so far - that figure will rise significantly over the next week or so, makes sense to me - I'm just wondering if I'm missing anything in the NHS charts where Sharky had originally said 350. As per Sharky's post above, I think you may be a day out - the 343 (350 approx) was from 23rd April, it seems. Edited April 25, 2020 by snowychap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted April 25, 2020 Moderator Share Posted April 25, 2020 1 minute ago, sharkyvilla said: 813 is the total UK figure, of the English recorded deaths 343 (I'd estimated from the bar chart 350 but 343 seems the exact figure as you say) happened the day before yesterday, which always seems the biggest contributor to the total and the rest are compiled from yesterday all the way back to over a month ago. I assume they keep announcing the reported deaths because that's what they did from the start as it would have taken a period of time to get the data to get a reliable amount of data to analyse it, plus I think the general international standard is doing it by recorded deaths. Thank you - makes perfect sense when you think about it, even though most people aren't building that into their thinking about the numbers. Which is what you said a while back! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Almost 5000 new cases reported today. For test, track, trace to be effective we need to get the number of new cases down to a few hundred new cases a day. The only way to do that is to maintain the current lock down measures or make them more restrictive and even if we do it is still likely to take weeks before we get new daily cases down to a few hundred. There seems to be mounting pressure to relax the measures within the next couple of weeks though and given how many people are out and about and the fact that many businesses are reopening it seems relaxing the measures has already started if not officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Genie Posted April 25, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: Almost 5000 new cases reported today. For test, track, trace to be effective we need to get the number of new cases down to a few hundred new cases a day. The only way to do that is to maintain the current lock down measures or make them more restrictive and even if we do it is still likely to take weeks before we get new daily cases down to a few hundred. There seems to be mounting pressure to relax the measures within the next couple of weeks though and given how many people are out and about and the fact that many businesses are reopening it seems relaxing the measures has already started if not officially. My Uncle and aunt (late 50’s, early 60’s) both have it. Tested yesterday and had results today. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted April 25, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 25, 2020 I saw an interesting stat today. Can't remember where though (was a proper newspaper site, not Twitter or summat) Apparently we are currently just over 10,000 over the last 5 years average for total number of deaths at this time of year. If that stat is true I guess we are either having a better than average year for "normal" deaths, or as some people have previously pondered, a fair chunk of people dying would have died naturally anyway regardless of Coronavirus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 34 minutes ago, sidcow said: If that stat is true I guess we are either having a better than average year for "normal" deaths, or as some people have previously pondered, a fair chunk of people dying would have died naturally anyway regardless of Coronavirus. You wot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 25, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 25, 2020 3 hours ago, snowychap said: It's tempting to look at it this way and though there's a significant (and obviously visible) minority who are like this, I don't think that applies in general. I'm not condemning the annoyed reaction that you're expressing - I've felt just the same on any number of occasions during this. You're probably right. But I'm sure that's the mindset of the people who are flouting the rules. They know they can get away with it so no harm done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, OutByEaster? said: Also, what's the feeling on the Financial Times' reported figure of over 41,000 deaths once we include people that have died outside hospitals? That China lied even more than everybody already knows. Edited April 25, 2020 by Delphinho123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Genie said: My Uncle and aunt (late 50’s, early 60’s) both have it. Tested yesterday and had results today. Do they have any idea how/where they got it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said: Do they have any idea how/where they got it? He has been working in a warehouse for a supermarket so I guess there. She’s a teacher and has been off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted April 25, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 25, 2020 1 hour ago, snowychap said: You wot? Eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 2 hours ago, sidcow said: I saw an interesting stat today. Can't remember where though (was a proper newspaper site, not Twitter or summat) Apparently we are currently just over 10,000 over the last 5 years average for total number of deaths at this time of year. If that stat is true I guess we are either having a better than average year for "normal" deaths, or as some people have previously pondered, a fair chunk of people dying would have died naturally anyway regardless of Coronavirus. Not really, because weekly deaths are about double what we would 'normally' expect, so it's consistent with both lots of 'normal' deaths and lots of coronavirus deaths. The difference between 'all deaths normally' and 'all deaths this year' is largely explained by coronavirus deaths. There were about 2,000 extra deaths unaccounted for in the week ending 10/04, which is probably both uncounted coronavirus deaths without a positive test, and also increased mortality for other things as a result of decreased hospital attendance or an overstretched medical system. (from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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