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45 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:
1 hour ago, sharkyvilla said:

It's promising that daily actual deaths are trending downwards quite sharply, in England they're about half they were 2 weeks ago (though they will be added to over the coming week or so).

Today is a bit of a dampener on this - second highest daily total since we got started.

Isn't sharky's point about daily actual deaths rather than the daily difference, i.e. how many more reported deaths there are today minus yesterday?

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Has lockdown been lifted? The roads have been **** busy today, as I look out of my window. 

Possibly one of the factors as to why we have most deaths in Europe. 

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There definitely appears to be a change in attitude with more people out and about.

Some of the double standards does my head in though. A woman who lives opposite had her daughter and granddaughter come in to her house today, No doubt on Thursday she'll be out clapping the NHS!

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36 minutes ago, snowychap said:

 

Isn't sharky's point about daily actual deaths rather than the daily difference, i.e. how many more reported deaths there are today minus yesterday?

Yes as the daily reported deaths are announced the NHS in England now give the figures as to which day each of those deaths actually happened.  On 8th April about 850 people died and on 23rd April so far the count is about 350 (it seems that in any given day's reported deaths, by far the most of those come from 2 days before).  It will get added to over the next few days to above 400 I'm pretty sure about that but it is still coming down significantly over time.

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20 minutes ago, Xela said:

Has lockdown been lifted? The roads have been **** busy today, as I look out of my window. 

Possibly one of the factors as to why we have most deaths in Europe. 

 

5 minutes ago, Brumstopdogs said:

There definitely appears to be a change in attitude with more people out and about.

Some of the double standards does my head in though. A woman who lives opposite had her daughter and granddaughter come in to her house today, No doubt on Thursday she'll be out clapping the NHS!

People are bored. 
And like I said people have realised they can get away with more and more. 
 

Generally people don’t care about other people. They care about themselves. If they know they can go and visit Mavis on the other side of Birmingham without getting caught they’ll do it. 
 

The longer this goes on the more people will push it. That’s why I said earlier that I understand all the points about police overstepping, but part of me wishes this was properly enforced

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1 minute ago, sharkyvilla said:

Yes as the daily reported deaths are announced the NHS in England now give the figures as to which day each of those deaths actually happened.  On 8th April about 850 people died and on 23rd April so far the count is about 350 (it seems that in any given day's reported deaths, by far the most of those come from 2 days before).  It will get added to over the next few days to above 400 I'm pretty sure about that but it is still coming down significantly over time.

I thought that's what you meant.

How do those figures match up with the ONS stuff, though? Taking in to account that there's a lag on their numbers.

I remember a week or two ago seeing a graph (I think Chris Giles from the FT) which effectively showed the 'reported daily numbers' were quite close to the actual numbers with an approximate two week lag.

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3 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Generally people don’t care about other people. They care about themselves. If they know they can go and visit Mavis on the other side of Birmingham without getting caught they’ll do it. 

It's tempting to look at it this way and though there's a significant (and obviously visible) minority who are like this, I don't think that applies in general.

I'm not condemning the annoyed reaction that you're expressing - I've felt just the same on any number of occasions during this.

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3 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Generally people don’t care about other people. They care about themselves. If they know they can go and visit Mavis on the other side of Birmingham without getting caught they’ll do it. 
 

The longer this goes on the more people will push it. That’s why I said earlier that I understand all the points about police overstepping, but part of me wishes this was properly enforced

I think this is why lockdown wasn't instigated earlier, even though I think it should have been. It should have also been much stricter and enforced a lot more. I know we are only seeing the photos the press want you to see but it looks as though lockdown in Italy has been a proper lockdown with deserted streets. Probably helps having armed police in the streets as well. 

The weather hasn't helped either. 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, snowychap said:

I thought that's what you meant.

How do those figures match up with the ONS stuff, though? Taking in to account that there's a lag on their numbers.

I remember a week or two ago seeing a graph (I think Chris Giles from the FT) which effectively showed the 'reported daily numbers' were quite close to the actual numbers with an approximate two week lag.

No idea with the ONS figures, I've not looked at those.  I just think you get a better perspective of where things are going if you look a bit deeper into daily stats on things like deaths and hospital admissions.

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1 hour ago, snowychap said:

 Having read your subsequent post, I don't think you needed my explanation above.

To be fair, there have to be a combination of words that illustrate the point effectively. It's all well and good the rest of us slapping each other on the backs in the echo chamber for a point well made but I think we can all see the issue with this particular point as regards to people not understanding the point we are making. Maybe, it's not a case of people wanting to repeat (possible) propaganda knowingly. And if anyone's reading still not connecting with the point that keeps being repeated because it appears to them we all seem to be ignoring the obvious fact that people would have died in 2020 had covid not been thrust upon us then imo it's worth going over until we find the way of effectively communicating with everybody. 

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1 hour ago, snowychap said:

Isn't sharky's point about daily actual deaths rather than the daily difference, i.e. how many more reported deaths there are today minus yesterday?

Sorry, I'm not sure I understand, apologies if I've missed your (or sharky's point) - I'd been looking at new deaths announced today (813) and that's higher than yesterday which was higher than the day before. However, it looks like from Sharky's post above that dying and being announced are no longer things that happen together. 

So from what I now understand, the governments announcement today that 813 more people have died is very different from the government announcing that 813 people have died today - correct?

 

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And @jackbauer24, I proved you right on some of your points and really wanted to have a discussion about the issues we have with data collection! Where did you go? (Theres f-ing loads mate)

Also @VIVA_LA_REVOLUTION, I assumed you posted in this thread in good faith. Don't let the crowd get you down.

Yay to me drinking!! :D

 

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8 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

...from what I now understand, the governments announcement today that 813 more people have died is very different from the government announcing that 813 people have died today - correct?

There are multiple lags. People die, it takes time2 or 3 days to register the death, perhaps. People who die from it have typically caught it 3 weeks before. Collation of stats takes a short time. Deaths announced today indicate something about the situation 3 or 4 weeks ago. It’s hospital admissions and better than that, test results which give, or would give if these were widely available, a more current indication, as I understand it.

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4 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Sorry, I'm not sure I understand, apologies if I've missed your (or sharky's point) - I'd been looking at new deaths announced today (813) and that's higher than yesterday which was higher than the day before. However, it looks like from Sharky's post above that dying and being announced are no longer things that happen together. 

So from what I now understand, the governments announcement today that 813 people have died is very different from the government announcing that 813 people have died today - correct?

 

Yes, though only the NHS England figures as far as I'm aware.  The total number of recorded deaths is made up from many different days, usually it seems most of them happened two days before but today for example had deaths from weeks ago included.  There is a marked trend downards though you can expect figures to be added over time.  You can find info here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Quote

This section contains information on deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and had tested positive for COVID-19 at time of death. All deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. Interpretation of the figures should take into account the fact that totals by date of death, particularly for most recent days, are likely to be updated in future releases. For example as deaths are confirmed as testing positive for COVID-19, as more post-mortem tests are processed and data from them are validated. Any changes are made clear in the daily files.

These figures will be updated at 2pm each day and include confirmed cases reported at 5pm the previous day. Confirmation of COVID-19 diagnosis, death notification and reporting in central figures can take up to several days and the hospitals providing the data are under significant operational pressure. This means that the totals reported at 5pm on each day may not include all deaths that occurred on that day or on recent prior days.

These figures do not include deaths outside hospital, such as those in care homes. This approach makes it possible to compile deaths data on a daily basis using up to date figures.

 

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I'm having a look at the NHS site now, it's interesting, thank you Sharky - I'm trying to interpret what I see, can you tell me where the 350 figure you got was from please? I can see 343 for 23rd April and 105 for 24th April, but I'm can't see a 350.

At first look, these figures seem to tell a story that's better than the way in which the government are reporting theirs, both in terms of rates of death and as a narrative for what they're doing - why aren't they using these?

 

 

 

 

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