Generic Virus Thread

[foreveryoung]

42 minutes ago, PaulC said:

I try not to 

I feel your pain paul. Now my Mrs has been diagnosed I'm flapping my tits of at every cough, pain I have. We have no idea how long shes had it, as she's had hayfever too so ive probably already been exposed, an even now theres only so much isolation you can have when living with someone. I'm guessing I've got it now or gonna get it.

[VlVA_LA_REVOLUTlON]

*Deleted due to obvious offense caused.

Edited April 20, 2020 by VlVA_LA_REVOLUTlON
Not well received

[PaulC]

6 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

I feel your pain paul. Now my Mrs has been diagnosed I'm flapping my tits of at every cough, pain I have. We have no idea how long shes had it, as she's had hayfever too so ive probably already been exposed, an even now theres only so much isolation you can have when living with someone. I'm guessing I've got it now or gonna get it.

I feel for you. You must be full of anxiety and worry. I have read your posts but I didn’t know what to write. I hope you and your mrs will be fine 

[Seat68]

21 minutes ago, VlVA_LA_REVOLUTlON said:

Us doctors are speaking out. These aren't conspiracy theorists these are leaders of the field. I think it's important we explore that this may not be how the mainstream media portrays it.

 

Dr Rashid buttar

 

Dr Bukacek. Doctoring the numbers

 

Dr Shiva 

They are around an hour each but well worth a watch if you wish to stray from the BBC

 

 

 

 

 

 

Question. Do you use the words deep state on a daily basis? The people posting those videos are also posting conspiracy videos. 

Dr Rashid Buttar. An Osteopath. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rashid_Buttar

Quote

In 2007, Buttar was charged by the North Carolina Board of Medical Examiners with unethical treatment of four cancer patients.^[6] The panel recommended that Buttar's "license be suspended indefinitely, but that the suspension be immediately stayed". In 2010 the board, in response to this and other concerns, chose to formally reprimand Buttar but allowed him to continue to practice.

Dr Annie Bukacek. 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/anti-vax-doctor-covid-19-death-certificates-984407/amp/

Quote

Dr. Annie Bukacek is not an unfamiliar figure in the far right. The head of the Montana Pro-Life Coalition, Bukacek is well-known for bringing tiny plastic fetuses to the state legislature; in 2009, she was under investigation for Medicaid fraudfollowing complaints that she had submitted reimbursements for time spent praying with patients. (Bukacek did not return a request for comment.)

Dr Shiva Ayyadurai

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shiva_Ayyadurai

 

Quote

During the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemicAyyadurai used social media to spread various conspiracy theories and misinformation about the pandemic. In January 2020 he claimed that the coronavirus was patented by the Pirbright Institute, but the patent he referenced relates to avian coronavirus, which infects birds, not SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the pandemic.^[47]

He alleged that the coronavirus was spread by the "deep state" and accused Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, of being a "Deep State Plant". Ayyadurai called for Fauci to be fired.^[48]

In March 2020 he published an open letter to president Donald Trump where he wrote that a national lockdown was unnecessary and advocated that large doses of vitamins could prevent and cure the disease.^[49][50]

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Seat68

[Davkaus]

I wonder how they feel about 5G.

[Seat68]

These are not leaders in their field they are conspiracy theory quacks. 

[chrisp65]

It took me 3 minutes and 57 seconds to work out it was bollocks @VIVA_LA_REVOLUTION , how long did it take you?

[VlVA_LA_REVOLUTlON]

Just now, Seat68 said:

These are not leaders in their field they are conspiracy theory quacks. 

Not my own opinions. I was seeking people's thoughts on this perspective and thought it was worth seeing people's general views

[Seat68]

1 minute ago, VlVA_LA_REVOLUTlON said:

Not my own opinions. I was seeking people's thoughts on this perspective and thought it was worth seeing people's general views

What are your thoughts then? If I post a video then its assumption without comment that the video supports my view. You posted 3 videos from conspiracy channels by 3 conspiracy theorists. 

[VlVA_LA_REVOLUTlON]

2 minutes ago, Seat68 said:

What are your thoughts then? If I post a video then its assumption without comment that the video supports my view. You posted 3 videos from conspiracy channels by 3 conspiracy theorists. 

The videos confused me greatly that's why I thought others could watch and give me their feedback. The lovely villa talk community.

 

When this comes from well known conspiracy theorists you can usually take with a pinch of salt but then it comes from dr's I thought it was worth seeking opinions

Edited April 20, 2020 by VlVA_LA_REVOLUTlON

[chrisp65]

6 minutes ago, VlVA_LA_REVOLUTlON said:

Not my own opinions. I was seeking people's thoughts on this perspective and thought it was worth seeing people's general views

It was literally posted on a website that thinks vaccination is a worldwide fraud and half its posts are selling quack medicine that cures baldness and tooth decay.

You really shouldn’t be bothering with this shit. 

Edited April 20, 2020 by chrisp65

[VlVA_LA_REVOLUTlON]

Just now, chrisp65 said:

It was literally posted on a website that thinks vaccination is a worldwide fraud and half its posts are selling quack medicine that cures baldness and tooth decay.

You really shouldn’t be bothering with this shit. 

Ok thankyou. Apologies if anyone is offended.

[Seat68]

Just now, chrisp65 said:

It was literally posted on a website that thinks vaccination is a worldwide fraud and half its posts are selling quack medicine that cures baldness and tooth decay.

You really shouldn’t be bothering with this shit. 

Where dis? Asking for a friend

[chrisp65]

Just now, Seat68 said:

Where dis? Asking for a friend

I now have hairy gums.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

John Burn-Murdosch, reporter and analyst for the FT, continues to say that per capita deaths are an almost irrelevant measurement. There's almost no correlation and all it does is make smaller countries look worse.

 

 

 

I know I have made this point a lot in this past, but I'm becoming less persuaded  - or at least more questioning - if I'm honest. Firstly, rather than retweeting that point about 'the per capita brigade' (at least he's changed the wording now) every evening, he should at least run the numbers again. The 29th of March is more than 3 weeks ago now, and the death totals are completely different.

Secondly, the conclusion he's drawing is clearly in large part a reflection of the data points that have gone in. On the one hand, China is so large in terms of population that it will distort the figures. On the other hand, he has (for perfectly good reasons) included a number of countries to which you would not normally compare the UK's healthcare system or outcomes. We wouldn't normally compare outcomes with Iraq, Algeria or the Philippines, for instance. When you compare to EU member states, which are obviously more similar, you do get a stronger correlation. If we look at 4 charts, we can see how much difference the inclusion of different data points makes:

Charts C & D both make more sense as international comparisons, and demonstrate that there is 'some' correlation between European population and fatalities-per-capita. C shows us what we already knew, on some level, which is that Spain and Belgium have had particularly bad outcomes, while Poland has been more successful in containment. D shows us that a large part of the weakening relationship is because East Asian countries have been so successful in reducing fatalities.

(charts from the middle of a very useful discussion here: https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1250860860672802817)

Thirdly, we need to decide what we want to make the comparison *for*, something which I think Burn-Murdoch could be clearer about. His use of the phrase 'makes small countries look worse' suggests that he sees these charts as a kind of 'World Cup of coronavirus performance', at least in part. That's a valid thing to want to know, but I would say the real answer - in as much as there ever will be one - will come much later when we look at excess mortality over the 5-year rolling average. However, if we want to know different things, it makes sense to use different measurements. If we want to know how fast the virus is spreading, then propotional increases (measured in percentage terms) would be by far the best. If we want to know how a country is managing its outbreak, we should be benchmarking each country against its healthcare system capacity. If we want to know how bad the situation is in terms of 'how likely are you to know someone who has died', then per-capita figures make more sense (probably on the subnational level as well, rather than national level).

TL/DR - I think Burn-Murdoch's 'purist' approach to using absolute numbers for international comparisons made a lot of sense in mid-March, and has made progressively less sense ever since, and I'm now not convinced, and I think I have probably argued too strongly for it on this thread in the past.

 

[HanoiVillan]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

It's weird. The company I work for had, last week donated 24,000 face shields and a load of other PPE to the NHS - to local hospitals around our factories and facilities. They (my Co.)  told us

So from what I understand, maybe it's a bit of a... I don't want to be rude about people offering help... but well maybe instead of trying to contact an MP or Minister or Head of NHS, they could talk to their local hospital? or council? It's brilliant they used initiative and generosity to create or offer PPE, but maybe a little initiative in terms of who to talk to might help too? 

Yes the Government should make that advice clear and freely available to folk, if it's the case.

Yes, that's a fair point too.

[Stevo985]

1 hour ago, Seat68 said:

Where dis? Asking for a friend

Are we friends?

[Stevo985]

51 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I know I have made this point a lot in this past, but I'm becoming less persuaded  - or at least more questioning - if I'm honest. Firstly, rather than retweeting that point about 'the per capita brigade' (at least he's changed the wording now) every evening, he should at least run the numbers again. The 29th of March is more than 3 weeks ago now, and the death totals are completely different.

Secondly, the conclusion he's drawing is clearly in large part a reflection of the data points that have gone in. On the one hand, China is so large in terms of population that it will distort the figures. On the other hand, he has (for perfectly good reasons) included a number of countries to which you would not normally compare the UK's healthcare system or outcomes. We wouldn't normally compare outcomes with Iraq, Algeria or the Philippines, for instance. When you compare to EU member states, which are obviously more similar, you do get a stronger correlation. If we look at 4 charts, we can see how much difference the inclusion of different data points makes:

Charts C & D both make more sense as international comparisons, and demonstrate that there is 'some' correlation between European population and fatalities-per-capita. C shows us what we already knew, on some level, which is that Spain and Belgium have had particularly bad outcomes, while Poland has been more successful in containment. D shows us that a large part of the weakening relationship is because East Asian countries have been so successful in reducing fatalities.

(charts from the middle of a very useful discussion here: https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1250860860672802817)

Thirdly, we need to decide what we want to make the comparison *for*, something which I think Burn-Murdoch could be clearer about. His use of the phrase 'makes small countries look worse' suggests that he sees these charts as a kind of 'World Cup of coronavirus performance', at least in part. That's a valid thing to want to know, but I would say the real answer - in as much as there ever will be one - will come much later when we look at excess mortality over the 5-year rolling average. However, if we want to know different things, it makes sense to use different measurements. If we want to know how fast the virus is spreading, then propotional increases (measured in percentage terms) would be by far the best. If we want to know how a country is managing its outbreak, we should be benchmarking each country against its healthcare system capacity. If we want to know how bad the situation is in terms of 'how likely are you to know someone who has died', then per-capita figures make more sense (probably on the subnational level as well, rather than national level).

TL/DR - I think Burn-Murdoch's 'purist' approach to using absolute numbers for international comparisons made a lot of sense in mid-March, and has made progressively less sense ever since, and I'm now not convinced, and I think I have probably argued too strongly for it on this thread in the past.

 

He has updated it to be fair I just found the tweet that made the same point but specifically addressed per capita. 
 

There is SLIGHTLY more of a correlation now. But it’s still very very weak

[Seat68]

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

He has updated it to be fair I just found the tweet that made the same point but specifically addressed per capita. 
 

There is SLIGHTLY more of a correlation now. But it’s still very very weak

This goes back to what we actually want the graphs for though, doesn't it. Of course it shows a weak correlation between population density and fatalities (though as I say, he could choose more appropriate comparators that would change that somewhat) because nobody has ever suggested that population or population density were *the monocausal explanation* for fatality rates. There are a huge number of confounding variables.

However, something doesn't have to have a high correlation to be of use. If I want to know whether my part of the country has been hit worse than other parts, for instance, I need a per-capita figure to answer that question, and the fact that population or population density aren't the single cause of the difference is irrelevant to that.

My questioning of Burn-Murdoch is what he wants his pasta line graphs to prove at this stage, and whether he is actually choosing the most effective visualisation for that. Some of his other charts are much better for this, by the way, such as the charts that show % change in hospitalisations in three colours that he has added over the last week. The fit between 'what the data is for' and 'what the data shows' is much clearer and better.

Edited April 20, 2020 by HanoiVillan