OutByEaster? Posted April 19 Moderator Share Posted April 19 Israel has chosen retaliation over international diplomacy, Netanyahu has chosen domestic interest over international interest. So now we're on the edge of a really dangerous war with the international community pushed into a corner on whether they prefer abandoning an ally that's gone batshit crazy or starting world war III. What could possibly go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 It sounds like a whole lot of nothing. Iran are denying they have been attacked. Israel not saying anything one way or the other. The US claiming Israel did launch an attack. Seems like this ambiguity is the cover both sides need to step back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Such dumb face saving bollocks going on in this situation - and a complete distraction to what's happening in Gaza. Someone needs to hook Netanyahu and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Iran going big on “nope, nobody struck us with a missile” seems like its inevitably going to end with them being hit by something they certainly can’t deny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 6 hours ago, desensitized43 said: How does a war between 2 countries that aren’t even neighbours work? There’s literally another two countries and hundreds of miles in between them and neither has the ability to launch amphibious invasions of the other so I don’t really get what a conventional war looks like here. Presumably they just lob bombs and missiles at each other but as history has taught us, that’s never enough to win a war outright. I'm not sure "winning a war" is the framework here, at least for now. Looks like tit-for-tat unless other countries get sucked deeper into the drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 If Netanyahu's actions drive up oil prices I'll kill him myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted April 19 Moderator Share Posted April 19 5 hours ago, OutByEaster? said: Israel has chosen retaliation over international diplomacy, Netanyahu has chosen domestic interest over international interest. So now we're on the edge of a really dangerous war with the international community pushed into a corner on whether they prefer abandoning an ally that's gone batshit crazy or starting world war III. What could possibly go wrong? 3 hours ago, Jareth said: Such dumb face saving bollocks going on in this situation - and a complete distraction to what's happening in Gaza. Someone needs to hook Netanyahu and fast. Sort of yes but sort of no as well. What Israel did was pick targets that wasn’t going to kick the whole thing off. Iran knows it can’t win conventionally and it can’t do what it tried to do with the massive attack it launched because Israel has the Iron Dome and support from allies. Iran doesn’t have anything close to the Iron Dome and knows if Israel chose to retaliate in proportion that they'd get flattened. Israel just did enough to point a few home truths out to Iran, especially with the talk of people on the ground assisting the Israelis (how true that is I have no idea but Iran seemingly believe it). It seems to be that Iran are sort of backing down now but trying not to lose face, they'll go back to the proxy wars again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) 6 hours ago, OutByEaster? said: Israel has chosen retaliation over international diplomacy, Netanyahu has chosen domestic interest over international interest. So now we're on the edge of a really dangerous war with the international community pushed into a corner on whether they prefer abandoning an ally that's gone batshit crazy or starting world war III. What could possibly go wrong? Israel were very selective with their targets and Iran have kinda denied it happened Iran are like one of those people that pick a fight on the little kid at school and then find out he's got a black belt in Judo or something and now want to pretend that they've let him off with a warning edit - or now I've read the rest of the thread .... what Bicks wrote Edited April 19 by tonyh29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 2 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: Israel were very selective with their targets and Iran have kinda denied it happened Iran are like one of those people that pick a fight on the little kid at school and then find out he's got a black belt in Judo or something and now want to pretend that they've let him off with a warning Let's be honest, Israel are the ones provoking all this at the moment. They know the Iranian government is struggling domestically, and doesn't want to pick a fight with Israel right now with all those US forces stationed offshore, so Israel are taking the opportunity to attack as many Iranian-aligned targets as they can in Syria and Lebanon. Including destroying an embassy, which was itself a pretty serious escalation. Of course Iran are going to retaliate. They can't let Israel walk all over them. Israel and Iran are like two boys on the schoolground who have been eyeing each other up warily for ages, throwing the odd jab and insult at each other, but they've both been too cautious to start a proper fight. But now Israel has come out swinging because he knows his big brother is in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post blandy Posted April 19 Moderator Popular Post Share Posted April 19 19 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: Let's be honest, Israel are the ones provoking all this at the moment. I don't see that. "all this" started with the October 7th terror attack by Hamas (at Iran's behest). That was aimed to do 2 things, obviously just engage in a bloodlust, but also to provoke a reaction which would scupper Israel's accord, or whatever the word is - much improved relationship/prospective deal - with Saudi Arabia. It did both those things. The utterly brutal retort from Israel (war crimes, genocide, collective punishment, murdering and destruction..) was probably not what Iran expected, they probably didn't expect such horror, but ultimately they don't care. Sure, Israel attacked the Damascus consulate, where Iranian liaisons with Hamas were holed up, and then we are where we are, with tit for tat attacks. In as much as you can draw a "starting point" or an "at the moment" window around hundreds of years of animosity, the October 7th date is IMO the starting point of the current appalling, bloodthirsty mess. Iran's has kind of let Israel off the hook to an extent, as well, because just as the world, or the democracies who sympathise and support Israel were utterly losing patience, they've re-invigorated that support/sympathy by launching hundreds of rockets and UAVs at Israel. The leaders of Israel, Iran and Hamas are monsters. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted April 19 Moderator Share Posted April 19 3 minutes ago, blandy said: I don't see that. "all this" started with the October 7th terror attack by Hamas (at Iran's behest). That was aimed to do 2 things, obviously just engage in a bloodlust, but also to provoke a reaction which would scupper Israel's accord, or whatever the word is - much improved relationship/prospective deal - with Saudi Arabia. It did both those things. The utterly brutal retort from Israel (war crimes, genocide, collective punishment, murdering and destruction..) was probably not what Iran expected, they probably didn't expect such horror, but ultimately they don't care. Sure, Israel attacked the Damascus consulate, where Iranian liaisons with Hamas were holed up, and then we are where we are, with tit for tat attacks. In as much as you can draw a "starting point" or an "at the moment" window around hundreds of years of animosity, the October 7th date is IMO the starting point of the current appalling, bloodthirsty mess. Iran's has kind of let Israel off the hook to an extent, as well, because just as the world, or the democracies who sympathise and support Israel were utterly losing patience, they've re-invigorated that support/sympathy by launching hundreds of rockets and UAVs at Israel. The leaders of Israel, Iran and Hamas are monsters. Saved me the effort of rereading what I'd started to type. Yep agree totally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) 1 hour ago, blandy said: I don't see that. "all this" started with the October 7th terror attack by Hamas (at Iran's behest). That was aimed to do 2 things, obviously just engage in a bloodlust, but also to provoke a reaction which would scupper Israel's accord, or whatever the word is - much improved relationship/prospective deal - with Saudi Arabia. It did both those things. The utterly brutal retort from Israel (war crimes, genocide, collective punishment, murdering and destruction..) was probably not what Iran expected, they probably didn't expect such horror, but ultimately they don't care. Sure, Israel attacked the Damascus consulate, where Iranian liaisons with Hamas were holed up, and then we are where we are, with tit for tat attacks. In as much as you can draw a "starting point" or an "at the moment" window around hundreds of years of animosity, the October 7th date is IMO the starting point of the current appalling, bloodthirsty mess. Iran's has kind of let Israel off the hook to an extent, as well, because just as the world, or the democracies who sympathise and support Israel were utterly losing patience, they've re-invigorated that support/sympathy by launching hundreds of rockets and UAVs at Israel. The leaders of Israel, Iran and Hamas are monsters. You're assuming Hamas were doing everything under Iranian orders. But the various Iranian-aligned militias are proxies that Iran can influence but don't control directly, and the problem with proxies is that sometimes they do their own thing. I very much doubt the Hamas attack was greenlit by Iran as an attack on that scale doesn't actually serve their interests. You can see that with how Hezbollah acted immediately afterwards; instead of joining in an attack on Israel like you'd expect (and Hezbollah wanted to do), Iran was trying to restrain them. Obviously the leaders of Iran are monsters too. I'm not defending them. I'm just saying the region is a tinderbox right now and Israel is deliberately taking this opportunity to kick Iran in the face as many times as possible, because they'll win if Iran backs down and they'll win if Iran decide to fight back because America (and probably the rest of the West) will be forced to join in on their side. That's great for Israel and terrible for everyone else. Edited April 19 by Panto_Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Why can’t the leaders actually grow a pair and just bomb each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted April 19 VT Supporter Share Posted April 19 Israel responding to the Iranian response is stupid and reckless, but they were stupid and reckless to attack the consulate anyway so hardly shocking. They want a war, knowing they'll have America right behind them. It's all well and good pointing out that everyone is a monster but one of those monsters we harbour and enable, like **** hypocrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted April 19 Moderator Share Posted April 19 2 hours ago, Panto_Villan said: You're assuming Hamas were doing everything under Iranian orders. No. I’m not. What I am assuming is that they wouldn’t have done the 7th October rampage of murdering 1500+ people and kidnapping 250 more if Iran wasn’t onside. If that’s right, then the precise degree of which individuals from Hamas and Iran pushed for it, planned it, supplied the weapons and intel and so on can’t really be known apart from those involved. So I think Iran was, as a minimum “onside” with it and more likely, IMO, approving or indeed encouraging and deeply involved in instigating for their leaders own twisted agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) 22 minutes ago, blandy said: No. I’m not. What I am assuming is that they wouldn’t have done the 7th October rampage of murdering 1500+ people and kidnapping 250 more if Iran wasn’t onside. If that’s right, then the precise degree of which individuals from Hamas and Iran pushed for it, planned it, supplied the weapons and intel and so on can’t really be known apart from those involved. So I think Iran was, as a minimum “onside” with it and more likely, IMO, approving or indeed encouraging and deeply involved in instigating for their leaders own twisted agenda. That's not what most sources I've seen say, though. A couple of examples: CNN - "The United States has collected specific intelligence that suggests senior Iranian government officials were caught by surprise by Saturday’s bloody attack on Israel by Hamas, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence. The existence of the intelligence has cast doubt on the idea that Iran was directly involved in the planning, resourcing or approving of the operation, sources said." BBC - "The decision to attack, Mr Raz said, was taken "by Hamas, based on its own interests, arising from the Palestinian reality" (this article quotes a bunch of Israeli military figures and academics all saying basically the same thing) Obviously any discussion needs to acknowledge that Hamas benefits from Iranian weapons and training, but that's not the same thing as supporting the Hamas attack on Israel. And that makes sense when you think about it. Iran primarily want Hamas to exist as a deterrent; it's another front that Israel has to worry about if they want to take on Iran. Hamas launching an attack on Israel that isn't part of a wider Iranian plan just gives Israel the opportunity to isolate Hamas and wipe them out, removing an important Iranian piece from the chessboard. Edited April 19 by Panto_Villan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Israeli airforce back at it tonight, hitting Iran backed militant groups in Iraq. They did a lot of work against the Iranian air defence network last night, which is exactly what you’d do at the beginning of a longer air campaign. They have an air corridor through Syria and Iraq which can be used to fly close up to Iran and launch stand off munitions, minimizing risk to IAF aircraft. Iran can’t do a thing to prevent this, so their only option to respond is further direct missile and drone attacks from Iran, activating Hezbollah rocket forces in Lebanon, or terrorist attacks in third locations against Israeli civilians. None of that can secure Iranian skies from further strikes, so it’s really a question of how much damage Israel now intends to inflict on the Mullah’s regime, it’s military and proxy forces, and Iranian CNI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Israel absolutely desperate to drag everyone in to their death cult war at the same time there’s a death cult in Iran and end of days cult in the U.S.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted April 20 Moderator Share Posted April 20 Can we get a count of how many nations Israel has bombed since October 7th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFC_Hitz Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said: Can we get a count of how many nations Israel has bombed since October 7th? Guarantee they'll bomb the Eurovision. Could be our year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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