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Awol

Israel, Palestine and Iran

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Media reporting Trump has informed Macron that he’s pulling the US out of the JCPOA and reimposing sanctions on Iran. 

 

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It's not the smartest move in the world. But we knew that already. Trump is surrounded by people that hate the deal, and has himself spent the last 2 years saying how bad it is, when he doesn't appear to understand it.

It would be available exceptionally dumb move. So he'll make it.

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54 minutes ago, PompeyVillan said:

I'm guessing that's a bad thing for world peace?

It’s a bad thing if you want to stop Iran building the bomb. Removing the incentives not to do it by reimposing sanctions on Iran is double+ dumb & puts the UK, France and Germany in a really tough spot. If any foreign firms engage with Iranian companies they’ll be sanctioned in turn by the US , but if the EU pushes back it could lead to a big trans-Atlantic issue. 

I suspect (and it is a guess) that this will play itself out quite soon in Syria, Iraq and maybe Lebanon, but there are lots of variables and so many actors it’s really hard to anticipate.

That said, the structural factors are shaping up for a conflict between Iran & Hezbollah versus Israel and the US in Syria. Killing the agreement is another step along that road, imo. 

Edited by Awol
Predictive boolacks

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Yup, stop the deal, let the Iranians take a tiny step toward developing a weapon and unleash the Israelis - I think ultimately, some ways down the road this results in lots and lots of dead people - still, it will make Netanyahu happy I suppose.

 

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It always raises a smile to see Israel commending efforts to prevent the appearance of nuclear weapons in the middle east. That's Israel, with the 6th largest nuclear arsenal on the planet.

 

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20 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

It always raises a smile to see Israel commending efforts to prevent the appearance of nuclear weapons in the middle east. That's Israel, with the 6th largest nuclear arsenal on the planet.

 

Unconfirmed reports they’ve hit targets in Syria within the last hour, also a partial call-up / mobilisation of some specialised trades - intelligence and airforce personnel.  Next few days could be interesting. 

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Iran have stated they're immediately beginning the production of the enriched uranium thingy stuff.

What could possibly go wrong?

 

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2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Iran have stated they're immediately beginning the production of the enriched uranium thingy stuff.

What could possibly go wrong?

 

That is interesting, supposedly they have very few centrifuges left. If they do have warehouses full of the things that would prove that they have, in fact, been cheating on the deal! 

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Quote

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said: "The US has announced that it doesn't respect its commitments.

"I have ordered the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran to be ready to start the enrichment of uranium at industrial levels."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44045957

Doesn't sound a particularly diplomatic approach.

 

 

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Russia has said that this puts the Korean peace process in doubt.

I'm not quite sure how Korea relates to Israel, or Russia for that matter - but it's another of those statements that suggests Donald is making the world a less safe place by the moment.

 

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4 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Russia has said that this puts the Korean peace process in doubt.

I'm not quite sure how Korea relates to Israel, or Russia for that matter - but it's another of those statements that suggests Donald is making the world a less safe place by the moment.

 

Would you trust a country that backs out of its deals at the whim of the moron in chief?

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Just now, OutByEaster? said:

So we're now faced with three options, either Iran gets nuclear weapons or we have a war, or both?

 

I can think of a fourth but someone needs to step up and take one for the team

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1 minute ago, bickster said:

I can think of a fourth but someone needs to step up and take one for the team

One of us assassinate Trump on his UK visit?

I was just going to moon at him, but I'll listen to what you have to say? :D

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1 minute ago, Xann said:

One of us assassinate Trump on his UK visit?

I was just going to moon at him, but I'll listen to what you have to say? :D

WEll I was thinking of an inside job personally but ....

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The Chinese/Indians need Iranian oil.  American leverage may not be what it appears. They believe that the new found shale riches mean they can stir things up in OPEC land, but shale ain't all it's talked up to be.

This is so dumb but consistent with their recent history. Total control of things via the dollar and they are doing their best to encourage the rest of the world to figure out how to trade around it. Meanwhile the war-crimes continue in the occupied territories, Syria and Yemen.

USA/Israel/Saudi vs ??

Wonder what the name for this coalition will be <_<

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40 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44045957

Doesn't sound a particularly diplomatic approach.

 

 

"Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said: "The US has announced that it doesn't respect its commitments.

"I have ordered the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran to be ready to start the enrichment of uranium at industrial levels."

He said he would "wait a few weeks" to speak to allies and the other signatories to the nuclear deal first.

"If we achieve the deal's goals in cooperation with other members of the deal, it will remain in place," he said."

Full context. It's pretty diplomatic given the position this puts the Iranian dealmakers in back home. They have to play politics too.

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So assuming this maybe Trump dancing to Netanyahu's tune, what's the ultimate aim for Israel - isolate Iran, goad them into developing their nuclear programme and make it more likely that their hardline elements will come to the fore, then use this as justification to kick it all off against them with US support?  I assume Saudi Arabia would be quite happy with Iran out the picture as well.

Or is that all a bit tin-foil?

 

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25 minutes ago, andym said:

Or is that all a bit tin-foil?

No, sadly. Israel figures they will have to fight Iran eventually either directly or when they are attacked by Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon. 

I think they’re trying to make sure it happens at a time of their choosing, and now Assad is consolidating in Syria and Iran is building permanent bases there the Israeli position gets relatively less secure every day. 

The Israelis unsurprisingly want the US with them to guarantee superior combat power, but Russia being camped in Syria is a big issue. It could all go horribly wrong really fast, but hopefully it won’t! 

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