Davkaus Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 4 hours ago, Chindie said: Poker played at pro level is all about maths, and that forms the foundation of your play. You want to calculate your chances of making a good hand, and the chances of a better hand being with an opponent, and bet accordingly, together with an understanding of the amount of money in play and the 'value' of betting. In this case that was thrown out the window. She reacts to his moves in a way you never would if playing well, and at the end calls his all in with nothing, which is stupid as means she's placing her success purely on luck, but with a really crap position to start with. You can argue it's actually good play in that it's a very ballsy call, but someone playing like that often is not going to be as successful as someone who plays well. Bluffing doesn't really come into it in this case. I am a complete novice at poker but...isn't this essentially what bluffing is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 4 hours ago, Stevo985 said: Bear in mind I watched that without the sound so not sure if anything was said, but I'm not sure anything is wrong with that. She's got the high card, the obvious hands are the draws for the straight and the flush, which given the way the other guy has bet you wouldn't have to be a genius to guess that that's what he's waiting on. It's **** awful play The guy has raised pre-flop so you'd be expecting a decent hand (obviously he could be bluffing). Natural expectation would be some sort of high cards - A K or whatever. He doesn't hit anything, she could think he's bluffing by putting her all-in but you cannot realistically call an all-in with Jack high in that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 11 minutes ago, Davkaus said: I am a complete novice at poker but...isn't this essentially what bluffing is? Bluffing is doing that the other way round. Making a bet with nothing to imply you have something strong. Not calling a bet when you have a terrible hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 6, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 6, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Davkaus said: I am a complete novice at poker but...isn't this essentially what bluffing is? No. Bluffing is about making your hand appear stronger than it is by your actions, causing players to fold stronger hands. In this scenario she actually claims to think HE is bluffing and calls (what she believes is) his bluff, which is fair enough, but when he goes all in, forcing her to make a decision between staying in the game or not, and she has an appalling hand, to call in her position is just to leave things to luck (at best - had he got lucky instead she'd look like an idiot). Nobody in this is bluffing (generally). He's playing pretty standardly. He has an ok starting hand, suited connectors (giving him a chance at a straight, a flush, or a straight flush), he raises, she calls, the flop strengthens his hand, he raises, she reraises with nothing (arguably a bluff but a silly one), he goes all in because he's in a good position and the board, with his actions, indicate he has a good hand, she then calls (despite having nothing, and little to no chance of anything good in the next card, and if losing goes out minus over $100k) and puts it to chance. It's just not good play. It's not logical, it has no strategy, and wins through dumb luck. Which happens. But pisses off people that play poker because it's not how you should approach the game to play well. Edited October 6, 2022 by Chindie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted October 6, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 6, 2022 29 minutes ago, bobzy said: It's **** awful play The guy has raised pre-flop so you'd be expecting a decent hand (obviously he could be bluffing). Natural expectation would be some sort of high cards - A K or whatever. He doesn't hit anything, she could think he's bluffing by putting her all-in but you cannot realistically call an all-in with Jack high in that position. I wouldn’t do it. But if she guessed he was on a draw, which he was, then I don’t think it’s that mental. The way he bet to take her all in was very indicative of a bluff if you ask me. Which it was (well a semi bluff but still) Maybe I’m giving her too much credit, but like I said it depends on what you think her thought process was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted October 6, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 6, 2022 Yeah you can’t bluff when you’re calling. It’s like someone offering to have a gun fight with you and you accepting even though you don’t have a gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BOF Posted October 6, 2022 Moderator Popular Post Share Posted October 6, 2022 When all's said and done though, she shouldn't have given the winnings back. It was dumb luck but she did nothing wrong. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: I wouldn’t do it. But if she guessed he was on a draw, which he was, then I don’t think it’s that mental. The way he bet to take her all in was very indicative of a bluff if you ask me. Which it was (well a semi bluff but still) Maybe I’m giving her too much credit, but like I said it depends on what you think her thought process was Of course it is - she had Jack high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 6, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 6, 2022 Giving the money back was immensely stupid. I can get why she did it, she's under pressure and scrutiny having beaten a bigger name good player with an embarrassing **** up and he's clearly pissed so she gives the money back in an attempt to make the issue go away. Instead, because the play is so awful it makes her look suspicious. Although I also would subscribe to the view that someone who truly was a cheat wouldn't give the money back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted October 7, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 7, 2022 (edited) 15 hours ago, bobzy said: Of course it is - she had Jack high! Which was higher than any card on the board and higher than the cards he would have had if she'd guessed he was on a draw. If Phil Ivey or Daniel Negreanu did that everyone would be calling them a genius Edited October 7, 2022 by Stevo985 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 She did say to him that she did call him for an all in previously in a game they played together, and won - so obviously she was hedging her bet on him being a bullshitter - which is good play (in a way, not recommended with Jack high), but if she's identified a way of calling someone on perceived "pressure" (I'm going to keep raising the stakes, despite not yet holding a good hand), then she didn't do anything wrong and she played the player, not the game. Statistically he had the best chance of making a better hand, but it never came. The weird thing she did is keep going with him (raising the stakes), even though she have a strong hand. At the end of the day, every time you pull a card out it has the same chance of being whatever card, but she's gone with the guys stake raises because she thinks she knows he's bluffing (which he was, because even though he nearly made a good hand, ultimately he didn't). She didn't do anything wrong, she was just extremely brave (in a sense) to keep matching his bets because she was playing him, not the cards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 (edited) I didn’t pick up on the fact she gave the money back. My first thought was that it was to get the story to go away, probably to avoid being caught. If i’d have got away with a stunning bluff like that I’d want to revel in it. Edited October 7, 2022 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 I don’t get how they can have just announced some Belarusian guy as being the Nobel peace prize winner for his contributions to bringing about democracy in Belarus. The country is run by a dictator who’s best buds with the biggest threat to the world right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 7, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, Genie said: I didn’t pick up on the fact she gave the money back. My first thought was that it was to get the story to go away, probably to avoid being caught. If i’d have got away with a stunning bluff like that I’d want to revel in it. She wasn't bluffing. She played a hand stupidly and got away with it through pure luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Chindie said: She wasn't bluffing. She played a hand stupidly and got away with it through pure luck. Why give the money back? It’s like when you’re about to get caught for stealing and stick it back on the shelf quick. I don’t know enough about poker to have a strong view on her strategy but going off the reactions of the commentary, the player and the audience they were absolutely stunned anyone would play that way. If it walks like a duck… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Chindie said: She wasn't bluffing. She played a hand stupidly and got away with it through pure luck. Tbh I don't see why a sportsman or woman just saying '**** it' and relying on luck isn't a legitimate tactic. I remember Ronnie O'Sullivan getting pissed off with Selby's defensive tactics and just hit the ball randomly to get out of snookers when behind in a World Championship, he got away with a few and got under Selby's skin, ending up winning. Selby was really salty about it saying it disrespected him and the sport etc just relying on flukey shots, it probably would have worked once in a hundred but Ronnie played the man, not the game, which that lady said she did having beaten the other guy before. I know bugger all about poker mind you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 7, 2022 Moderator Share Posted October 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: I don’t get how they can have just announced some Belarusian guy as being the Nobel peace prize winner for his contributions to bringing about democracy in Belarus. The country is run by a dictator who’s best buds with the biggest threat to the world right now. He's in prison The Belarusian Government really is being kept in power by a slender thread. There will eventually be a revolution, it is almost inevitable especially as Russia really doesn't have the troops to help quell any revolution (and neither does Belarus) The Military in Belarus is obviously telling Lukashenko they will not be joining the war and if he tries, he's toast as they will topple him themselves. It could collapse at any time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted October 7, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 7, 2022 (edited) Does anyone think that Lady in the poker game from like 5 pages ago was bluffing? Edited October 7, 2022 by sidcow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted October 7, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 7, 2022 44 minutes ago, sidcow said: Does anyone think that Lady in the poker game from like 5 pages ago was bluffing? I know this is a joke, but whatever anyone’s opinion is on whether it’s good play or not, it is not a bluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted October 7, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted October 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: I know this is a joke, but whatever anyone’s opinion is on whether it’s good play or not, it is not a bluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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