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U.S. Politics


maqroll

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2 minutes ago, Chindie said:

The death rate for people in his bracket still weighs heavily towards him surviving. And ultimately he's the US President. If he does get severely ill he'll get no expense spared treatment, again weighing things in his favour.

Sadly he's more likely to live than not.

Clinically obese, elderly, had an emergency hospital visit over the last year, cholesterol/hypertension. He's in the highest risk group.

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14 minutes ago, maqroll said:

Clinically obese, elderly, had an emergency hospital visit over the last year, cholesterol/hypertension. He's in the highest risk group.

You are both correct. He is in the highest risk group but the odds of him surviving are still massively in his favour

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5 minutes ago, bickster said:

You are both correct. He is in the highest risk group but the odds of him surviving are still massively in his favour

What are the British bookmakers odds? Might be worth a punt!

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47 minutes ago, maqroll said:

Clinically obese, elderly, had an emergency hospital visit over the last year, cholesterol/hypertension. He's in the highest risk group.

Yes, he's in amongst the highest risk groups. But even there you're more likely to live than not, and he's going to have the best care possible. 

Unfortunately the odds are in his favour.

He'll live.

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23 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it's all lies and it's just an election ploy. 

He's far too weak and insecure to ever willingly be seen as anything but the strongest toughest guy in the room, no matter how laughable it is.

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31 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it's all lies and it's just an election ploy. 

It several ways it could be a tactic to increase his chances of winning a second term. Like many others, I don’t trust a thing he says.

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Some more digging on what happens if...

Quote

What if Joe Biden also became ill?

In either case the party’s national committee, Republican or Democratic, would have to meet to formally nominate a new candidate. While that should be straightforward – seeing the vice-presidential candidate elevated – other candidates who were in the running in the primary stage could theoretically make a case for a hearing from their party.

It is also complicated by the fact that electors to the electoral college at state level – a controversial layer of 538 representatives across the US who vote for the president based on the result of the popular vote in their state – would have to decide if votes already cast for a dead or incapacitated candidate would “bind” them to any replacement when the electoral college meets after the election, in December.

What about postponement?

The date of US elections is fixed in law – going back to 1845 – and elections have gone ahead through war and crisis. Trump has himself been dismissed by Republicans for even suggesting a postponement because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The law says US voters must go to the polls on the Tuesday after the first Monday of November every four years. This year that date is 3 November.

It would take an act of Congress – ie approved by by both the House and Senate – to change that.

What’s the worst-case scenario?

There are potentially many. Biden has also been close to Trump recently and would be in a high-risk group, but he, like Pence, has said he has tested negative.

Both are on the ballot and would cause issues if ill or incapacitated. Postponements, selection of new candidates and reissuing of ballots might involve not only new legislation and potentially the US supreme court but the parties themselves having to agree mechanisms as well.

Guardian

Murky uncharted waters indeed...

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49 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it's all lies and it's just an election ploy. 

Why? Has he been caught having an affair and needs time to put things back together with his furious pregnant girlfriend?

 

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