El Zen Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 (edited) Damn Germán. Edit: Damn page break, too Edited January 2, 2022 by El Zen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Reading some articles on US politics in the Economist and they think Trump is clear favourite to be the next President if he wants it. Basically none of the other serious potential Republican candidates would run against Trump, and Biden’s approval rating is almost as low as Trump’s was at the same stage of his presidency which augurs a Trump win. Only question is whether Trump decides not to run if the Dems don’t lose lots of seats in the midterms, or if Biden chooses not to run if they do. But both seem unlikely. There’s a cheery thought for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I don't think anyone's decision-making is dependent on the outcome of the midterms, given that - as always in American politics - the outcome of midterm elections is highly predictable. Democrats will lose control of both chambers, and everyone already knows this. I guess it will make Biden's last 2 years in office completely unproductive, but as he doesn't seem to be someone driven by great desire to get bills passed anyway I doubt he'll call it a day in 2024 just because of frustration. The simpler truth is that for both of these very old men the decision is probably going to be more about their health, their degree of commitment given their time remaining, and (especially in Trump's case) if there are any younger men willing to try to slay the dragon blocking the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: I don't think anyone's decision-making is dependent on the outcome of the midterms, given that - as always in American politics - the outcome of midterm elections is highly predictable. Democrats will lose control of both chambers, and everyone already knows this. I guess it will make Biden's last 2 years in office completely unproductive, but as he doesn't seem to be someone driven by great desire to get bills passed anyway I doubt he'll call it a day in 2024 just because of frustration. The simpler truth is that for both of these very old men the decision is probably going to be more about their health, their degree of commitment given their time remaining, and (especially in Trump's case) if there are any younger men willing to try to slay the dragon blocking the path. Yes, surprises are very unlikely in the midterms given how thin the Dem majorities are. But I could certainly see decisions being affected if the unexpected does somehow happen. You’re right that health probably is a bigger factor - well, for Biden at least. I’m not sure Trump is particularly bothered about not being able to do the job properly, he just wants to win. I think there’s next to no chance a serious contender will arise if Trump decides he’s running, personally. Much as I wish that wasn’t true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 America, **** Yeah! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 hours ago, Panto_Villan said: Reading some articles on US politics in the Economist and they think Trump is clear favourite to be the next President if he wants it. Basically none of the other serious potential Republican candidates would run against Trump, and Biden’s approval rating is almost as low as Trump’s was at the same stage of his presidency which augurs a Trump win. Only question is whether Trump decides not to run if the Dems don’t lose lots of seats in the midterms, or if Biden chooses not to run if they do. But both seem unlikely. There’s a cheery thought for everyone. We wondered the same thing a while ago on here, surely after what happened at The Capitol, Trump wouldn't gain more votes than last time? The fact that the Republicans are doing so well in the polls a year after he got kicked out suggests he is actually a drain on the GOP to me. There would have to be a mass collective loss of memory among Americans or they manage to actually put in place a mechanism to rig the results in the swing states, which I guess the most cynical view is that both are plausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted January 3, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: We wondered the same thing a while ago on here, surely after what happened at The Capitol, Trump wouldn't gain more votes than last time? The fact that the Republicans are doing so well in the polls a year after he got kicked out suggests he is actually a drain on the GOP to me. There would have to be a mass collective loss of memory among Americans or they manage to actually put in place a mechanism to rig the results in the swing states, which I guess the most cynical view is that both are plausible. Why the hell isn't he in jail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 29 minutes ago, mjmooney said: Why the hell isn't he in jail? Indeed. I guess while Trump might get fewer votes in an election, those voters could easily choose to make America burn if he was put on trial. Hopefully he just dies before 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 hours ago, Panto_Villan said: Yes, surprises are very unlikely in the midterms given how thin the Dem majorities are. But I could certainly see decisions being affected if the unexpected does somehow happen. You’re right that health probably is a bigger factor - well, for Biden at least. I’m not sure Trump is particularly bothered about not being able to do the job properly, he just wants to win. I think there’s next to no chance a serious contender will arise if Trump decides he’s running, personally. Much as I wish that wasn’t true. I know the bolded is the conventional wisdom, and it may well be right, but if you follow the idea that things can always get worse then there's things to give pause on this thought. Specifically, there has been a fair bit of backlash among the more deranged parts of the base about his comments supporting vaccines. He even got booed after praising them as a great achievement in an interview with Bill O'Reilly recently (you can see video of this here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/trump-says-he-got-covid-booster-shot-tells-fans-not-to-boo-him.html) Subsequently, far-right danger Candace Owens was busy begging people not to be too angry at him, the problem is he watches mainstream media and is kinda old etc: Someone will try running to his right on vaccines IMO. Will they be successful? Perhaps not, but there's a (very gross) space there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Quote Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump Jr. subpoenaed by New York Attorney General Letitia James in fraud investigation New York Attorney General Letitia James has subpoenaed two more of former President Donald Trump's children, Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr., as well as Trump himself, in an ongoing financial fraud probe into his company, according to an order filed Monday in a New York court. Another son, Eric Trump, was deposed by investigators in October 2020, and attorneys for Donald Trump previously confirmed a subpoena seeking the former president's testimony. The subpoena seeks "testimony and documents 'in connection with an investigation into the valuation of properties owned or controlled by Donald J. Trump or the Trump Organization, or any matter which the Attorney General deems pertinent.'" https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ivanka-trump-donald-trump-jr-subpoenas-new-york-attorney-general-letitia-james-investigation/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: I know the bolded is the conventional wisdom, and it may well be right, but if you follow the idea that things can always get worse then there's things to give pause on this thought. Specifically, there has been a fair bit of backlash among the more deranged parts of the base about his comments supporting vaccines. He even got booed after praising them as a great achievement in an interview with Bill O'Reilly recently (you can see video of this here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/trump-says-he-got-covid-booster-shot-tells-fans-not-to-boo-him.html) Subsequently, far-right danger Candace Owens was busy begging people not to be too angry at him, the problem is he watches mainstream media and is kinda old etc: Someone will try running to his right on vaccines IMO. Will they be successful? Perhaps not, but there's a (very gross) space there. That'd certainly be fascinating to watch from the point of view of a detatched political observer. I can't figure out if it'd be good thing or not from the point of view of someone who would love to see the Republicans lose the next election. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, sharkyvilla said: We wondered the same thing a while ago on here, surely after what happened at The Capitol, Trump wouldn't gain more votes than last time? The fact that the Republicans are doing so well in the polls a year after he got kicked out suggests he is actually a drain on the GOP to me. There would have to be a mass collective loss of memory among Americans or they manage to actually put in place a mechanism to rig the results in the swing states, which I guess the most cynical view is that both are plausible. I've been wondering that too - would the swing voters that voted Biden last time to get rid of Trump would stick with Biden this time around? Have they had enough time to forget about how bad Trump was, and get annoyed at Biden instead? The problem is that Trump really doesn't have to peel off many Biden voters to get back into office, so even a minor movement would be a problem. The current thinking is that Biden's relative unpopularity means he'll lose, but maybe that would shift if Trump was confirmed as the alternative. I hope so. EDIT: oh, and there's a genuine effort going on in the swing states to rig the election. There's a whole bunch of election "truthers" running for important state offices for exactly that reason. It's pretty sad to watch democracy crumbling from within. Edited January 3, 2022 by Panto_Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 3, 2022 Moderator Share Posted January 3, 2022 I honestly think the next election will be a reset election The US will not be voting for either Trump or Biden. Neither will be standing Biden is too old, he and the Dems both know it. Trump will be legally in so much jeopardy in 2 years time, he'll be too busy putting out the fires to be actually taking his grift to the people I expect this to become apparent to everyone by the middle of this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Has there ever been a President that won election, then stood down and the replacement pardoned them of anything they may previously have done? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 55 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Has there ever been a President that won election, then stood down and the replacement pardoned them of anything they may previously have done? Yes. Can only pardon for federal crimes not state crimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The election talk will start now. If Biden doesn't run he will be effectively a dead duck president after about 18 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted January 4, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 hours ago, bickster said: I honestly think the next election will be a reset election The US will not be voting for either Trump or Biden. Neither will be standing Biden is too old, he and the Dems both know it. Trump will be legally in so much jeopardy in 2 years time, he'll be too busy putting out the fires to be actually taking his grift to the people I expect this to become apparent to everyone by the middle of this year By God I hope you're right. I will post in the TV thread, but I just watched "The Loudest Voice" starring Russel Crowe as Roger Aisles. That man did so much to destroy this country's Democracy while always claiming to be a "Patriot." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On 03/01/2022 at 06:22, Panto_Villan said: Reading some articles on US politics in the Economist and they think Trump is clear favourite to be the next President if he wants it. Basically none of the other serious potential Republican candidates would run against Trump, and Biden’s approval rating is almost as low as Trump’s was at the same stage of his presidency which augurs a Trump win. Only question is whether Trump decides not to run if the Dems don’t lose lots of seats in the midterms, or if Biden chooses not to run if they do. But both seem unlikely. There’s a cheery thought for everyone. Trump's base is taking some serious hits from the ongoing investigations and criminal proceedings against the Jan. 6 rioters and from his recent pro-vaccine statements. It seems that even Donald has realised that he needs to appeal to more than the MAGA-crew. Will the rest of the republican spectrum vote for Trump? I somehow feel that the next term might be the year for someone from the middle. Someone who's not Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert or the type. It seems to me that many republicans are tired of the total lunacy they're seeing to the right of them. If Biden manages to get out of the pandemic with this sort of approval rating I think he'll be fine. You have to recognise that the last two years have been absolute shit, and Trump was still lower than this pre-pandemic. I suspect the Dems will invent some sort of common enemy (Iraq? Russia? Venezuela?) and go for the usual quasi justified invasion to bolster their support Bill Clinton style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted January 4, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 4, 2022 31 minutes ago, magnkarl said: I suspect the Dems will invent some sort of common enemy (Iraq? Russia? Venezuela?) and go for the usual quasi justified invasion to bolster their support Bill Clinton style. Invading Russia would be a bold move, that's for sure... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 34 minutes ago, mjmooney said: Invading Russia would be a bold move, that's for sure... They don't need to invade Russia. Indicating Ukraine can join NATO would be enough to start a hot war with Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts