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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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3 hours ago, CroVillan said:

True but not under Ange playing the style they do and his persistence with applying the same philosophy under any circumstances. They’ll get absolutely torched by City put my house on it. If Liverpool did what they did to them imagine the field day Foden, Rodri, Doku and Haaland are going to have!! Relax people City aren’t losing the title with a shit performance to Spuds. 

Hope you are right! 

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Implied probability of Villa getting 4th according to the betting markets is 95%...

A lot of noise for 5%.

Yes, 5% probability can happen - but it doesn't deserve this much panic and sentiment that people think we are going to lose.

19 times out of 20 we are 4th.

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Who cares, we have a decent rest after the Liverpool game, nearly a week, should be enough to give Palace a good game. We are running on empty, a decent rest and we should be beating them.

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We lost to a Brighton team who have spent the last month on the beach , it would be like us to beat Palace who have suddenly become title contenders after thrashing a poor United  side 

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4 minutes ago, ChicagoVillan1983 said:

Implied probability of Villa getting 4th according to the betting markets is 95%...

A lot of noise for 5%.

Yes, 5% probability can happen - but it doesn't deserve this much panic and sentiment that people think we are going to lose.

19 times out of 20 we are 4th.

Funny isn't it. I was thinking why (me included) are so worried when its 95% probable we will do it. 

It's been drilled into us - collapse, failure, bottling it. Classic villa. It means so much that the thought of not doing it is literally terrifying. 

So much disappointment, followed by promise, followed by hope, followed by dissapointment over the last 30 years. 

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Posted (edited)

So at what point are people going to become nervous? Would it be if Spurs win on Saturday and then draw with City on the Tuesday? (Assuming we lose to Liverpool) 

Edited by Tayls
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1 minute ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Funny isn't it. I was thinking why (me included) are so worried when its 95% probable we will do it. 

It's been drilled into us - collapse, failure, bottling it. Classic villa. It means so much that the thought of not doing it is literally terrifying. 

So much disappointment, followed by promise, followed by hope, followed by dissapointment over the last 30 years. 

I don’t know why it is 95%likely though. 
There is a realistic chance we don’t pick up another point, denting our goal difference in the mean time.

Spurs will almost definitely beat Burnley and Sheffield United and improve their goal difference.  They also, unlike the rest of the league, have an excellent home record against City. They could feasibly get at least a point from that game.

 

Sure we are in the stronger position but 95% likely to qualify for CL is very overinflated.

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5 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said:

Funny isn't it. I was thinking why (me included) are so worried when its 95% probable we will do it. 

It's been drilled into us - collapse, failure, bottling it. Classic villa. It means so much that the thought of not doing it is literally terrifying. 

So much disappointment, followed by promise, followed by hope, followed by dissapointment over the last 30 years. 

Because each individual event looks and is perfectly possible, if not likely. The combination of all of them happening together is, however, very unlikely. 

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2 minutes ago, WallisFrizz said:

I don’t know why it is 95%likely though. 
There is a realistic chance we don’t pick up another point, denting our goal difference in the mean time.

Spurs will almost definitely beat Burnley and Sheffield United and improve their goal difference.  They also, unlike the rest of the league, have an excellent home record against City. They could feasibly get at least a point from that game.

 

Sure we are in the stronger position but 95% likely to qualify for CL is very overinflated.

Because that is the market price of the risk according to the bookies!!!

If you think that probability is too high, you can literally go an take your money and back Spurs!

It's just math.

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3 minutes ago, Tayls said:

So at what point are people going to become nervous? Would it be if Spurs win on Saturday and then draw with City on the Tuesday? (Assuming we lose to Liverpool) 

If Spurs get a draw with City after beating Burnley and we lose to Liverpool, I’d be beyond nervous as the odds would have tipped in Spurs favour. It would be like that flippin coefficient keeping indicating that England were most likely to get the 5th CL place…right up until they don’t. 

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10 minutes ago, Alakagom said:

We might need to beat this Palace side to guarantee CL. Season over call it a day was good fun while it lasted 

Except for many on here it clearly wasn’t good fun (you only have to look at their often embarrassing comments before during and after games) unless we are winning regularly the players are shit, bottlers, lazy, not good enough the list goes on. The fact we are still 4th in the league and in a semi final of a European competition and have already qualified for another year in Europe next season ( admittedly not CL yet) appears to be unacceptable for some.   
Not sure what they are going to do next season when we don’t do the league and Champions league double. 

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