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Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23


messi11

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Annoying that we have such a crap points haul at this stage of the season when so many teams above us aren't really grabbing Europe by the scruff of the neck. This should have been the year to get back into Europe. 

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On 13/01/2023 at 01:17, VillaChris said:

I've been hugely impressed with them in most of the games I've seen this season so we certainly can't act like finishing above them is a foregone conclusion, as it stands they're 9 points clear of us and fully deserve to be.

Think newly promoted Leeds and Sheffield United in recent seasons both got to 55-56 points and Fulham look every bit as good as them currently. Only query is will their intensity drop off once they hit 40 points? We'll see.

Tomorrow is a real must win just to make rest of season interesting. Beat Leeds and they have Newcastle away which they could easily lose and suddenly they're back in range and still to come to VP.

A draw is better, as Newcastle could still be catchable if their form gets worse. Spurs and Chelsea are the main threats with Newcastle. We need them to lose points more than the others, as others won’t have the consistency. Fulham are good but a lot of their wins they had some luck with their side. Palace had two players with red cards, Chelsea one and us at our last game under Gerrard. Can’t remember other wins but I think they’ll start declining. For now let them take points from other opponents and keep it tight. 

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Pretty promising that we had three months of Gerrard and yet are on course still for 50 points. Given the general increase since Emery has come in I think 55 points or whatever we finished on in 20/21 is a realistic target.

Need to get the performances levels up but certainly can win another 5 games at VP and we're currently 2 from 2 away under Unai and next week is another winnable away game.

 

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6 hours ago, messi11 said:

Okay now don't Panic
Lets just chill and let the drama unfold over the weekend. Win next week and then look at the table.


@tomsky_11 whats the cum graph saying?
 

image.png.517d671e2c764712149440bda7ea65a7.png

Projecting a 55-56 point season.

To give an idea of the kind of results required in final 19 games to get to 55 points:

- 8 wins, eg. sou LEI eve CRY BOU NFO FUL BHA

- 6 draws, eg. whu NEW bre wol TOT lei

- 5 losses eg. mnc ARS che mnu liv

Edited by tomsky_11
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2 hours ago, GlobalVillan said:

If we can get around 52 to 55 points then that would be a really good season. I wanted 10th and a cup run so now we need to bust a good to make sure we got 8th/9th. 

Huge ask to finish top half but it's not impossible.

We got 25 points from the first half of the season, if we copy that in the second half of the season we end up with 50 points.

But all 19 of those matches will be managed by Emery, so it isn’t unreasonable to expect more from the second half of the season.

If we continue the same form from the 6 first matches under Emery:
(13 points / 6 matches ) * 19 remaining matches = 41 points, giving a total of 66 points.

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For reference -

21/22 season, 7th - 10th place finished with -

West Ham 56 

Leicester 52 

Brighton 51 

Wolves 51 

At the halfway point these teams had -

West Ham 31

Wolves 28

Brighton 27

Leicester 25 

Covid delaying fixtures means that they all reached the 19 game point at different times (which made confirming these points an oh so much more fun task that I willingly and stupidly gave myself).

Anyway, nothing remarkable about the above, but having the same mid season points tally as what proved to be 8th place Leicester is encouraging.

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We're only half way through the season. Let's hope we make a couple of additions this window and stop having our players injured. 

I think Chelsea will sort themselves out and get top 7. What Fulham do for the second half of the season is unknown. If Brighton lose to Liverpool I'd be hopeful of us getting past them and Brentford. So 7-9th is somewhere I think we'll finish. 

Tbh I'd just love a top 10 finish and 55 or more points. 

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3 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

Nothing really matters this season. 

If we can get top half then that's fantastic. 

Next year is when the expectations should rise.

It’s all to play for we quicker we get into Europe the better. More money better players, progress.

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10 hours ago, ferguson1 said:


25 points after 19 games.  Emery has helped us obtain 13 points already.

It’s looking very decent but still think we’ll finish between 8th and 10th place.

Would be very very happy with this after Gerrard's horrific start to the season.  Puts us into the shop window for good summer recruits to see our potential and ambition.  

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3 hours ago, viivvaa66 said:

We got 25 points from the first half of the season, if we copy that in the second half of the season we end up with 50 points.

But all 19 of those matches will be managed by Emery, so it isn’t unreasonable to expect more from the second half of the season.

If we continue the same form from the 6 first matches under Emery:
(13 points / 6 matches ) * 19 remaining matches = 41 points, giving a total of 66 points.

I admire the optimism but I think it's dangerously misguided. I believe it is in fact, totally unreasonable to expect that we will win 4 and lose just 1 out of every 6 games, just because that's how we started under him.

This is not his side and although he has come in and improved us, we have also been knocked out of 2 cup competitions in that time, one of them at home to a League 2 side.

We were poor last night, as we were against Wolves for the most part. That's 3 home games in a row where we haven't been very good.

We will get better, of that I am sure, but there's no way we are going to finish on 66 points and I think it's wise to temper the expectations.

As I say, 52 to 55 points is where I see us and that would be an improvement. 

Next season, however, is a different story.

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12 minutes ago, WallisFrizz said:

I feel like we’ve been saying this since we got promoted.

To some extent. 

But then we did Deano's 2nd season. 

To be fair, expectations always have to be reigned in when a new manager comes in. 

 

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