GlobalVillan Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Beat Wolves and Chelsea lose by a few goals to Man. City and we'll be practically equal. Which may well happen, but that would mean we will have won 4 out of 5 and still be in the bottom half. Tough league this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said: Which may well happen, but that would mean we will have won 4 out of 5 and still be in the bottom half. Tough league this year. We just have to keep winning, I don't think it's as tough as 20/21 just yet where 55 points will have you finishing 11th. We've been a bit unlucky in that Fulham and Brentford have suddenly strung a couple of wins at the same time we have. Brentford were actually really poor away from home and had only won 3 games but that late Man. City win has given them a huge lift. Before the break Fulham were drawing 0-0 at home to Everton. They have Chelsea twice and Spurs in next few weeks so we'll get close to someone soon if we keep getting 3 points. Not getting enough credit for that Man. United win as they're in amazing form currently and even going to Spurs they'd won 6 of their first 8 home games so we're in good shape currently. Imagine if we'd sacked Gerrard after the West Ham loss like we should've. We'd be breathing down Newcastle necks. Brighton-Liverpool is next up aswell so important we beat Leeds on the Friday and see what's going on for the rest of the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 Very early days. Still loads of games to play. 21 games infact for Villa. 63 points to play for. Just have to keep winning. Win tomorrow will create a noticeable point gap in the table between the European race and relegation race 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Are Chelsea not top half anymore btw? Haven't looked at the table tonight. Potter will be under serious pressure if they slip down to 11th-12th. Can't remember too many big wins from them this season so given they've lost 3-0 to Leeds and 4-1 at Brighton I assume their GD is pretty mediocre aswell. So simple formula is beat Wolves and they lose to Man. City and we're pretty much there with them. Way it's gone last decade though probably more likely we'll concede 96th minute goal to Wolves and draw 1-1 and they'll beat Man. City about 4-0 and go on 10 match winning run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 33 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Are Chelsea not top half anymore btw? Haven't looked at the table tonight. Potter will be under serious pressure if they slip down to 11th-12th. Can't remember too many big wins from them this season so given they've lost 3-0 to Leeds and 4-1 at Brighton I assume their GD is pretty mediocre aswell. So simple formula is beat Wolves and they lose to Man. City and we're pretty much there with them. Not exactly because they’re 4 points ahead plus an extra game in hand. Their GD is +8 better than Villa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, ender4 said: Not exactly because they’re 4 points ahead plus an extra game in hand. Their GD is +8 better than Villa. Yes but us beating Wolves at home and them losing at home to Man. City isn't some outlandish 100/1 shot, it's two very realistic results based on current form. That happens and it's a point difference with half a season to play and finishing above Chelsea becomes a realistic target. Not too bothered about their game in hand (isn't that Liverpool at home?) as I can remember us having two spare games on many teams above us in 20/21 and of course we didn't win them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 02/01/2023 at 21:03, useless said: We've got a run of so called easier fixtures coming up, but also every time we have such a run of games, we never seem to do as well as people expect, so will wait and see how we do in the next four or five. Football isn't always as simple as just because you've won some tough games then it means you're automatically then going to win the 'easier' games. It was all too predictable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 Moving up the table nicely Gotta beat Leeds next Friday and we're in poll position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, messi11 said: Moving up the table nicely Gotta beat Leeds next Friday and we're in poll position All not lost after the draw with Wolves... After DIRTY Leeds it's Saints...six points would put us right in the top eight mix. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: All not lost after the draw with Wolves... After DIRTY Leeds it's Saints...six points would put us right in the top eight mix. Exactly. Brighton, Brentford and Fulham are the Hare's but Villa are the Tortoise Edited January 4, 2023 by messi11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Current Top six are better teams and Chelsea will get themselves sorted out and at least be Top 7. and 9+ points ahead if Liverpool win their game in hand. Time to get more realistic. Brighton have a game in hand (their two postponed fixtures were H Palace, A Bournemouth). So they should be 8 points ahead. Hopefully can close the gap but I'd see them taking 8th. Fulham have had a great start this season but feel it has to run out of steam at some point. They're 6 ahead of us at the moment. So over taking the teams above us and catching Fulham to end 9th a couple of points behind Brighton would be a big success. We're 6th since Gerrard was fired and 6th since Emery has come in. All we can ask for is to stay in that top 6/7 table which would equate to top 6/7 form over a full season. I still fear we will as per usual struggle to get the 3 points off teams when we are favourites due to being a counter attacking side. I hope Emery can solve that long time weakness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 hours ago, CVByrne said: Time to get more realistic. Brighton have a game in hand (their two postponed fixtures were H Palace, A Bournemouth). So they should be 8 points ahead. Hopefully can close the gap but I'd see them taking 8th. Brighton are where they are now more because of Potter. They've only taken 1 more point in 11 games than Potter picked up in 6. Don't expect them, Fulham or Brentford to be anywhere other than the 50-55 point mark by end of season, which is about where I'd expect us to be as well: Hopefully that black line can stay above the green one a bit longer. 3 hours ago, CVByrne said: I still fear we will as per usual struggle to get the 3 points off teams when we are favourites due to being a counter attacking side. I hope Emery can solve that long time weakness We aren't and won't solely be a counter attacking side under Emery. I expect we'll be more adaptable game-to-game and also within games than we've seen for a long time, if ever. I think we've already seen that in the few games he's been here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 58 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said: Brighton are where they are now more because of Potter. They've only taken 1 more point in 11 games than Potter picked up in 6. Don't expect them, Fulham or Brentford to be anywhere other than the 50-55 point mark by end of season, which is about where I'd expect us to be as well: Hopefully that black line can stay above the green one a bit longer. We aren't and won't solely be a counter attacking side under Emery. I expect we'll be more adaptable game-to-game and also within games than we've seen for a long time, if ever. I think we've already seen that in the few games he's been here. Great chart Under Emery we are averaging 2 points per game so far. If we can keep that up we should be in the top 8 come the end of the season. We might not move out of 11th place for sometime. Need to be patience and just focus on our games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turvontour Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) Newcastle showing how much opportunity there is in this league, when you get things right with a decent set of players. Dont need to be world beaters. You think then too that Newcastle in third have only won 3 more games than us, and you think back to those awful performances at Fulham, Forest, Bournemouth, etc. Some really missed opportunities for wins there. It's fine margins Edited January 5, 2023 by turvontour 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted January 5, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, tomsky_11 said: Brighton are where they are now more because of Potter. They've only taken 1 more point in 11 games than Potter picked up in 6. Don't expect them, Fulham or Brentford to be anywhere other than the 50-55 point mark by end of season, which is about where I'd expect us to be as well: Hopefully that black line can stay above the green one a bit longer. We aren't and won't solely be a counter attacking side under Emery. I expect we'll be more adaptable game-to-game and also within games than we've seen for a long time, if ever. I think we've already seen that in the few games he's been here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 38 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said: Ha! Was expecting this from someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, messi11 said: Great chart Under Emery we are averaging 2 points per game so far. If we can keep that up we should be in the top 8 come the end of the season. We might not move out of 11th place for sometime. Need to be patience and just focus on our games. If we can somehow maintain 2ppg we'd finish on 62 points. I think 7th would be nailed on and 6th highly likely. 8th place has never been more that 61 points, 62 is the average for 6th, and has got as high as 4th (though not since 2005 not going to happen this season) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 We have conceded early in Brighton, Liverpool and Wolves games so far under Emery. He won't be happy with that. I feel we got out of jail with Brighton and Wolves a bit more on luck than breaking the teams down. I still worry when the new manager bounce is gone and opponents have plenty of Emery Villa games to analyse we will see a lower points per game than we've seen so far. Still we've had 13 points from 7 games since Gerrard was sacked. That's a 71/72 point season on current form. I expect us to drop more towards 1.4-1.5 PPG from here to end of season. So I'd say we'll end season on around 50-53 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, CVByrne said: We have conceded early in Brighton, Liverpool and Wolves games so far under Emery. He won't be happy with that. I feel we got out of jail with Brighton and Wolves a bit more on luck than breaking the teams down. I don't think the win at Brighton was undeserved, and it wasn't luck that got us back into the game last night, it was tactical changes that swung the game back our way, and we probably should have won in the end. 14 minutes ago, CVByrne said: new manager bounce Lol not this again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudevillaisnice Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, CVByrne said: I still worry when the new manager bounce is gone and opponents have plenty of Emery Villa games to analyse we will see a lower points per game than we've seen so far. That is normal (more games to analyse) but this run is not a new manager bounce. Yesterday for example we were actually losing.. he made changes and we drew and almost won it at the end. That isn't a bounce.. it's more of a tactical nous which has been sorely lacking at Villa Park for years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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