Season 22/23 Target League Position

[dont_do_it_doug.]

11 minutes ago, Adam2003 said:

Sure, I’m not saying he didn’t have some good players. But he also had some (relative to what Gerrard will have going forward) very bad ones. Anyway the point is about 55 points then vs a target now, not another Smith vs Gerrard borefest.

Probably the best player to play for the club in 30 odd years. I think this context is important when I say I wouldn't be overly disappointed with 55 points next season. I wouldn't be elated either, and I think it would leave the manager on thin ice to be honest. 

[Adam2003]

9 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

Probably the best player to play for the club in 30 odd years

I love Grealish (I still do unlike some) but I also recognise that getting people to play to their potential is a part of the manager’s job. Smith did that with Grealish - in fact Grealish turns 27 this summer and yet I’d argue Smith is the only manager who he has ever played five good games in a row under.

Gerrard has (going forward next season, I wouldn’t expect this to have had an impact in his first few months) people like Coutinho who most non-Villa fans would have argued, other than for about 12 months, is a better player or has a higher ceiling. Part of his job is to get the best out of them.

I get what you’re saying as I’m someone who is fine with where we finished this year because (as I’ve said elsewhere) everyone told us we would be relegated without Grealish and we turned out to be ok. But I still think with having spent all that Grealish cash on Bailey, Buendia and Ings plus getting Coutinho, Digne, Kamara, Diego Carlos and whoever else we sign in, only matching the season before last would be disappointing. Grealish leaving gave us a free pass for 2021-22 but if we end up in the position that we are using it as an excuse two years after he left that won’t have been a good season…

Edit: I realise you’re not disputing this and agree that 55 points would be *ok* AND agree it would probably see the manager on thin ice. We aren’t miles apart on this.

Edited June 3, 2022 by Adam2003

[MrBlack]

23 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

Probably the best player to play for the club in 30 odd years. I think this context is important when I say I wouldn't be overly disappointed with 55 points next season. I wouldn't be elated either, and I think it would leave the manager on thin ice to be honest. 

The not very good Tottenham team listed a page or two back, the one that got 71 points,  only had 2 CL worthy players. So only one more than when we had Grealish.

/sarcasm

The teams currently in the top 4 are miles ahead of where we at. The teams just outside in 5th and 6th had their worst seasons in a long time, and still got more than the 55 points we achieved in our best season in decades. 

If Gerrard is expected to get over 60 points,  he's got no hope of winning some fans over. Hoping that we do is fine.  Targeting 60 for the season is reasonable. But anything over that would be a minor miracle. 

[Adam2003]

2 hours ago, VillaChris said:

We'll be better at the back but will just mean we'll draw more games, 5 more draws this season would've got us to 9th I think.

We should be significantly better at the front as well with Coutinho having a pre season and not living in a hotel, Buendia being settled, Bailey being hopefully injury free, Ings and Watkins still at the same sort of level, Ramsey continuing to add more goals to his game etc - without even thinking about potential new signings still to arrive.

[DakotaVilla]

4 hours ago, Zatman said:

Copa America winning goalkeeper, Europa League winning centre back, Champions League winning number 10, think the 4th most expensive player ever. 40 cap French full back and the hottest free agent in European football for a start

Damn why should we have expectations after this spend

Funnily enough the one person not to give Gerrard a free pass is Gerrard himself which makes his defenders look pretty bad

So. Just for avoidance of doubt and based on your logic. If Gerrard spends less money than smith he gets a lower points target than 55 in your ridiculous and crazy arbitrary world? Or will you still hold him to champions league qualification which is basically what 70 points is?

[VillaChris]

34 minutes ago, Adam2003 said:

We should be significantly better at the front as well with Coutinho having a pre season and not living in a hotel, Buendia being settled, Bailey being hopefully injury free, Ings and Watkins still at the same sort of level, Ramsey continuing to add more goals to his game etc - without even thinking about potential new signings still to arrive.

That will be chance creation....still feels like Watkins and Ings will just snatch at too many chances at vital times in games. First half v Spurs a classic example. If you keep missing good chances the world class strikers at other end will punish you.

Interested who we target as other striker if we're loaning Archer out again and selling Davis.

[Adam2003]

43 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

That will be chance creation....still feels like Watkins and Ings will just snatch at too many chances at vital times in games. First half v Spurs a classic example. If you keep missing good chances the world class strikers at other end will punish you.

Interested who we target as other striker if we're loaning Archer out again and selling Davis.

Those players all need to be getting a bit closer to ten goals themselves if we want to have a good season though. They are all capable of it.

[KentVillan]

1 hour ago, DakotaVilla said:

So. Just for avoidance of doubt and based on your logic. If Gerrard spends less money than smith he gets a lower points target than 55 in your ridiculous and crazy arbitrary world? Or will you still hold him to champions league qualification which is basically what 70 points is?

Gerrard has inherited a lot of good signings from Smith, so a bit weird to talk about him "spending less".

Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Mings, Luiz, Buendia and possibly Ings + Watkins are all players you'd imagine featuring for a while in Gerrard's plans assuming nobody else comes in for them.

With the additions of Coutinho, Chambers, Carlos, Kamara, Digne (plus 1 or 2 more?) and with the talented youth generation of Ramsey, Chukwuemeka, etc coming of age, Gerrard will have a much stronger squad than Smith ever had, regardless of Grealish.

So the expectation next season should be a finish that reflects the relative strength of that squad.

Clearly we aren't going to finish above Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs. Arsenal and Man Utd are a bit less predictable, but even in a bad season for them the player quality usually shows through.

It's below that top 6 where Gerrard has now put together a squad where the players should be thinking they can realistically finish above West Ham, Leicester, Brighton, Wolves, etc. if they play to their potential.

I'd be delighted with a 7th place finish or better, meaning some form of European qualification. Fine with 8th or 9th. 10th or below and you start to wonder.

[WallisFrizz]

4 hours ago, Adam2003 said:

I was trying to focus on things going forward and answer the question of how many points we should get rather than focus on the fact we had a really great player in our squad two seasons ago. The point is the overall quality of the squad has improved dramatically and yet we are talking about how a good target (and one I personally would be happy with) is an additional two wins on that season. 
 

I know a lot of people need to have everything be a Gerrard vs Smith pissing contest for some reason but you don’t need to assume people are being somehow disingenuous eh. I think it is amazing Smith got 55 points with so many bad players; I will equally be really pleased for Gerrard to get 60+ with this significantly improved squad. I’m a Villa fan - I want all our managers to do well. Leave me out of the snide comments back and forth please!

It wasn’t a snide comment, it was a fairly neutral comment expressing surprise that in comparing points hauls over different seasons    and referring to squad quality you mentioned the poor players (Anwar got into double figures that season by the way, playing behind closed doors may have affected us favourably) but chose/failed to mention that we had one of the standout players in the league. I didn’t initially comment directly because I get bored of these points comparison/ manager comparison arguments (yet here I am more fool me) but agreed with someone else. Don’t let it bother you, it’s a discussion forum.

[DakotaVilla]

5 hours ago, KentVillan said:

Gerrard has inherited a lot of good signings from Smith, so a bit weird to talk about him "spending less".

Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Mings, Luiz, Buendia and possibly Ings + Watkins are all players you'd imagine featuring for a while in Gerrard's plans assuming nobody else comes in for them.

With the additions of Coutinho, Chambers, Carlos, Kamara, Digne (plus 1 or 2 more?) and with the talented youth generation of Ramsey, Chukwuemeka, etc coming of age, Gerrard will have a much stronger squad than Smith ever had, regardless of Grealish.

So the expectation next season should be a finish that reflects the relative strength of that squad.

Clearly we aren't going to finish above Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs. Arsenal and Man Utd are a bit less predictable, but even in a bad season for them the player quality usually shows through.

It's below that top 6 where Gerrard has now put together a squad where the players should be thinking they can realistically finish above West Ham, Leicester, Brighton, Wolves, etc. if they play to their potential.

I'd be delighted with a 7th place finish or better, meaning some form of European qualification. Fine with 8th or 9th. 10th or below and you start to wonder.

That’s a far more realistic and fair expectation with hopefully a good cup run thrown in for good measure.

Other comments about Gerrard spending lots is false. So far he’s spent 70m and that’s equivalent to what we spent on targett, traore, trezeguet, jota, ghazi, samatta, guilbert, Kalinic. 
 

[DCJonah]

I think just looking at transfer fees is pointless. There's absolutely no doubt that Gerrard has a much stronger squad and is bringing in a clear higher level of player. 

[Demitri_C]

Impossible to answer until we know the squad when the transfer window shuts, in addition we have no idea what our rivals will be doing

[Vive_La_Villa]

Some have mentioned how many points we should get but I dont think we should look at that and rather look at finishing position.  Smith got 55 which is a great return but it was a year where everyone was beating everyone and there was no home advantage at all. Only 2 teams got more than 70 points.  Was a unique season. 

I think Gerrard needs to get top 8 or will have under achieved. Regardless of how many points that needs.

[DakotaVilla]

7th and a good cup run would be huge progress and would set us up very nicely to  attract more elite players for the following season 

[IrishVilla10]

19 hours ago, Zatman said:

70 should be gettable because of the huge investment he has received

He isnt playing Trez and AEG

70 points is the standard Gerrard will be held to now 

[Davkaus]

46 minutes ago, IrishVilla10 said:

70 points is the standard Gerrard will be held to now 

Only by a few neurotic VT posters, I suspect

Edited June 4, 2022 by Davkaus

[IrishVilla10]

23 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Only be a few neurotic VT posters, I suspect

Bingo. 70 points and you’re fighting spurs for 4th this season for reference 

[Delphinho123]

1 minute ago, Tomaszk said:

I think he doesn't lead training because he accepts he isn't a top-level coach currently. That's OK, not a criticism. It's sensible if anything.

Watching and assisting he probably gets a better overview of performance than if he was running it anyway.

I think it's very much the approach of a pre-2013 top club. We've updated it a bit to give the manager lots of support but I do think this a  Alex Ferguson director of football type position that football has moved away from.

There's positives and negatives. I think I'd need to see more value from Gerrard himself going forward to agree this is the best approach for us.

The transfer policy since he came in absolutely stinks of now now now. So I expect the target for the coming season is top 6.

I just don’t think we’re good enough at present for the top 6. If we bring in another high quality central midfielder, we’ll be a little closer but I think 7th should be the aim next season with a view that anything lower than 10th is a disaster. 

What do you think? 

A push for the top 6 would probably require us to go and buy another starting centre half, another central midfielder and a striker. I don’t think we have the means to do it. My feeling is that we’ll bring in another central midfielder and that could well be your lot from a starting XI perspective. 

[VillaChris]

3 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Some have mentioned how many points we should get but I dont think we should look at that and rather look at finishing position.  Smith got 55 which is a great return but it was a year where everyone was beating everyone and there was no home advantage at all. Only 2 teams got more than 70 points.  Was a unique season. 

I think Gerrard needs to get top 8 or will have under achieved. Regardless of how many points that needs.

Basic metric is this....50-55 points and you'll be in contention or qualifying for europe, league table showed that this season.

40-45 points simply not acceptable as you aren't probably finishing top half as we showed this season.

60 + points is a very good season, on a part with the MON years. Not impossible if we have a really good start as we really should've achieved that points haul in 20/21. Does mean we need to be winning 3/4 in a row a couple of times next season but we did that under Gerrard as recently as March (before in true Villa fashion losing our next four).

Think biggest problem for us is we never look that unconvincing at VP e.g. going months at home without winning and ending up with 6/7 home wins. Unless your away form is excellent you're not going into europe with home form like that, Newcastle won that amount at home between Feb-May.

Edited June 4, 2022 by VillaChris

[Vive_La_Villa]

28 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Think biggest problem for us is we never look that unconvincing at VP e.g. going months at home without winning and ending up with 6/7 home wins. Unless your away form is excellent you're not going into europe with home form like that, Newcastle won that amount at home between Feb-May.

I do wonder why this is.  I don’t get the we are all behind you feeling at VP. It’s more the ‘here we go again, let’s go and have a pint instead’.