Season 22/23 Target League Position

[allani]

1 hour ago, nick76 said:

You have a point!  The only thing I would say is that at what point are we happy being in that crowd rather than progressing and being the best of the crowd.  If we got 55 points+ and ended up 11th then I agree with you.  

As I argued a week or so ago but got dismissed I value point targets just as much league position but I was told by a few that only league position matters.  

For me we need to be around 60 points next season, if we get that or close I think we’d be very unfortunate to be 11th or below.  55 points in 20/21 season that got 11th was very unusual position for that amount of points which normally gets you about 8th position.

I’m not sure I’d agree.  We need to be around European place battle I agree but I certainly won’t be happy with win one, lose one strategy….I don’t feel that’s better than streaky runs for the same points.  Both ways have positives and negatives.  I want consistent performances, I’d be happy with that even if it doesn’t produce the right result every time, I don’t want us to lose every time we concede an early goal, I want to see fight.  I don’t think win one, lose one strategy is any better than streaky runs though.

Bringing in Gerrard as the “upgrade”, our spending, youth, infrastructure and everything else, we need to start seeing it on the pitch and in league positions, it’s the only thing missing.  Gerrard was brought in to get Europe, we have to be close this season otherwise it will be seen as failure in the boardroom I’m guessing.  Everything is being given on the plate, Gerrard and the team now need to deliver.

I think I said win one, lose one, draw one, win one - which when writing it seemed a whole lot better than win one, lose one but I guess on a 4 match sequence only gets us one extra point (although I guess over a 38 match season that does end up being 9 extra points which would have got us to 54 points and missing out on Europe due to a crazy spell at the end of the Man City match!  (And yes I am fully aware that I have massively over-stretched the 9 extra point thing there just to support my argument!!!!)

However, I am going to disagree with you here.  Being less streaky might only get us another 5 or 6 points over the course of the season.  But in 17/18, 18/19, 19/20, 20/21 and 21/22 I think one of the fundamental issues was that we could go 5 or 6 matches (or more) and be utterly dreadful and almost get worse every match.  Then a couple of weeks later we'd start a run where we looked like we were brilliant.  In each of those seasons there were extended spells when we were in full-on relegation form and it kind of felt like we were then reliant on having a glory run where we won 6 or 7 on the bounce.  Some seasons that happened very late in the season (promotion run, year we avoided the drop) and other seasons it happened much earlier (start of the season in 20/21 and the new manager bounce last season).  I think it would be a huge step forward if next season when we have a bad game then the next match we all feel confident that we'll bounce back and play well.  I'd feel less emotionally drained at the end of a season if we scattered our defeats around a bit more rather than storing them up for a 4 or 5 week period when we looked like half the players had never set foot on a football pitch before.  For the last few seasons I've had that sinking feeling that every loss might just be the start of our next awful run.  (Interestingly I don't seem to have the opposite high of thinking that every win might just be the start of our next golden spell of form).  Of course if we can cut out the runs of bad form, reduce the number of overall defeats and still maintain the spells of great form then that would be ideal!!!!

[nick76]

1 hour ago, allani said:

However, I am going to disagree with you here. 

Fair enough! Just different views.  If it was the same points give or take, I don’t think either is desirable either the streaky runs or the equivalent of one win, one loss thingy because that feels to me like I’m turning up to games not knowing whether I’m going to get great Villa or rubbish Villa, it would be so frustrating backing up a great win with a poor loss looking at the other way to what you described, seeing that so often in the season.  I understand your view though on the streaky runs, I just don’t think one is progress over the other.

Anyway I think we both agree we just need to do better.

Edited June 5, 2022 by nick76

[MNVillan]

This thread is pretty incredible. I started reading VT in 2013, and it was full of relegation predictions. Now we’re demanding top half.

Don’t get me wrong, I think top half should be the expectation with an outside chance at Europe. But damn, what a journey it’s been.

[Vive_La_Villa]

Wasn’t sure where to put this but apparently fixtures have been leaked. If it’s real we have City away first game then Spurs home a week later.  

[KentVillan]

1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Wasn’t sure where to put this but apparently fixtures have been leaked. If it’s real we have City away first game then Spurs home a week later.  

Don't know if the stats back this up, but it feels like there's more chance of a freak result in August, so maybe a good thing to get these out of the way early.

[PaulC]

Depends on who else we bring in but we should be aiming top 6 

[Zatman]

On 11/06/2022 at 15:51, KentVillan said:

Don't know if the stats back this up, but it feels like there's more chance of a freak result in August, so maybe a good thing to get these out of the way early.

I think so. City lost on the opening day last season. I remember Cardiff beat them at home early on though was a good few years back

[tomav84]

On 11/06/2022 at 13:31, Vive_La_Villa said:

Wasn’t sure where to put this but apparently fixtures have been leaked. If it’s real we have City away first game then Spurs home a week later.  

they get 'leaked' literally every year. and funnily enough the 'leaked' fixtures never match the real ones

i read an article yesterday around how they put them together, they wont even be finalised yet.

[nick76]

11 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

they get 'leaked' literally every year. and funnily enough the 'leaked' fixtures never match the real ones

i read an article yesterday around how they put them together, they wont even be finalised yet.

I agree, Klopp and Pep are on holiday at the moment so they won’t have planned with the PL when they want to play each team

[TRO]

On 04/06/2022 at 14:58, VillaChris said:

Sat 3pm games always feel very flat to me with atmosphere, even half 5 isn't great if you look at Spurs game when we went 1 down very early and half the crowd went after it went 3-0.

If we could play every game under lights then we'd probably win 10 games given some of the best atmospheres in last 5 years have been night games e.g. Everton in that first season back, Leicester in league cup SF and I thought the best atmosphere last season was Leicester at home which was a Sunday half 4 game so that was played under lights for the whole game. Different feel to those games and I prefer them to say Arsenal at home on Saturday lunchtime which feels so flat and I think that filters through to the players even if none of them would ever come out in interviews and admit it.

Add in VP probably not feeling that intimidating to away teams. Just need to sign better players and then that can nullify things as it's not like Man City ground is some cauldron of hate for away teams but they win 16-17 home games a season like clockwork.

The crowd, responds to the team and on a consistent basis the team has good moments and bad moments during a game....We have to find an ability to be hard to beat, while being confident in scoring, if we want to rise up the league.

conceding sloppy goals, will take us nowhere.

The answers are in the way we play,( and I don't mean formations) we are simply inconsistent in controlling a game, we have moments where we score good goals and have moments where we look like conceding at the drop of a hat.

We are not a resillient looking team......on the basis of last season.

The summers new recruits, may change that, fingers crossed.....but league position, will be determined by getting crucial things improved during a game.

Edited June 13, 2022 by TRO

[TRO]

On 05/06/2022 at 18:00, allani said:

I think I said win one, lose one, draw one, win one - which when writing it seemed a whole lot better than win one, lose one but I guess on a 4 match sequence only gets us one extra point (although I guess over a 38 match season that does end up being 9 extra points which would have got us to 54 points and missing out on Europe due to a crazy spell at the end of the Man City match!  (And yes I am fully aware that I have massively over-stretched the 9 extra point thing there just to support my argument!!!!)

However, I am going to disagree with you here.  Being less streaky might only get us another 5 or 6 points over the course of the season.  But in 17/18, 18/19, 19/20, 20/21 and 21/22 I think one of the fundamental issues was that we could go 5 or 6 matches (or more) and be utterly dreadful and almost get worse every match.  Then a couple of weeks later we'd start a run where we looked like we were brilliant.  In each of those seasons there were extended spells when we were in full-on relegation form and it kind of felt like we were then reliant on having a glory run where we won 6 or 7 on the bounce.  Some seasons that happened very late in the season (promotion run, year we avoided the drop) and other seasons it happened much earlier (start of the season in 20/21 and the new manager bounce last season).  I think it would be a huge step forward if next season when we have a bad game then the next match we all feel confident that we'll bounce back and play well.  I'd feel less emotionally drained at the end of a season if we scattered our defeats around a bit more rather than storing them up for a 4 or 5 week period when we looked like half the players had never set foot on a football pitch before.  For the last few seasons I've had that sinking feeling that every loss might just be the start of our next awful run.  (Interestingly I don't seem to have the opposite high of thinking that every win might just be the start of our next golden spell of form).  Of course if we can cut out the runs of bad form, reduce the number of overall defeats and still maintain the spells of great form then that would be ideal!!!!

I think your observations are good, and I agree with what you see.

just to add a line......I watch our games and in the way we play, I am not surprised in how the results unfold.

When you are too easy to play against and we are......Our results unfold in typical fashion and they do.....its like night follows day.

If we get that right and we become hard to play against, the results will take care of themselves and the league postion, will reflect it.....and we will go further in cup competitions.

Our play, is fragile,as of last season, we are either brilliant or sloppy....those peaks and troughs in our application, need to be ironed out.

We need to find a formula of play, that results in winning football and sloppy errors that are benevolent to the opposition, must be eradicated.

Its simply unacceptable to keep losing from winning positions, which takes a swipe at the mentality of the team.

To be fair, I believe, SG is acutely aware of this and is trying to fix it.

 

[TRO]

On 05/06/2022 at 19:32, nick76 said:

Fair enough! Just different views.  If it was the same points give or take, I don’t think either is desirable either the streaky runs or the equivalent of one win, one loss thingy because that feels to me like I’m turning up to games not knowing whether I’m going to get great Villa or rubbish Villa, it would be so frustrating backing up a great win with a poor loss looking at the other way to what you described, seeing that so often in the season.  I understand your view though on the streaky runs, I just don’t think one is progress over the other.

Anyway I think we both agree we just need to do better.

I think Nick, the tell tale signs are going on during a game and the dynamics of the game are reflective in our results.

You are right.....We need to do better and that's what we are trying to do.

When we become harder to play against, many of the downsides, will disappear.

[Zatman]

2 hours ago, tomav84 said:

they get 'leaked' literally every year. and funnily enough the 'leaked' fixtures never match the real ones

i read an article yesterday around how they put them together, they wont even be finalised yet.

We are nearly always leaked to play Spurs 

[nick76]

2 hours ago, TRO said:

I think Nick, the tell tale signs are going on during a game and the dynamics of the game are reflective in our results.

You are right.....We need to do better and that's what we are trying to do.

When we become harder to play against, many of the downsides, will disappear.

My point was less even about just the Villa, it was more about that if you get the same points overall, it makes no difference whether you have streaky run of good results then streaky run of bad results or whether you win one, lose one repetitively if they end up with the same points total then the latter isn’t superior/better than the other one which the other poster was referring to.

As for the Villa, we just need to be better.

[allani]

7 hours ago, nick76 said:

My point was less even about just the Villa, it was more about that if you get the same points overall, it makes no difference whether you have streaky run of good results then streaky run of bad results or whether you win one, lose one repetitively if they end up with the same points total then the latter isn’t superior/better than the other one which the other poster was referring to.

As for the Villa, we just need to be better.

OK again I am going to challenge you on this one.  Let's take 2020/21 as an example.  We finished with 55 points.  But I think we got 22 of those points from 12 matches before Christmas - meaning we got 33 from the remaining 26 matches.  In many ways the fact that we had a great run at the start and were up in the European places gave the impression that we were potentially ready to be the best of the rest.  Ultimately, the relative collapse in the second 2/3rds of the season is what cost Dean his job.  I think our feeling about the season would have been quite different had those two periods been reversed.  Maybe we would have felt that our season was similar to Newcastle's this season - looking all set for a relegation battle and then finishing comfortably in mid-table.  Had that happened (and Dean had avoided being sacked before) then I think the Board might just have given Dean another chance because there would have been signs (two seasons on the trot) that he was fixing problems during the season and getting improvement as time passed.

In these scenarios we would have finished on the same number of points, etc - but I think the impression of the season would have been very different.

Anyway, that isn't going to happen this season.  With our next two signings, a good pre-season, a winter break and a confident squad thriving in a common belief in each other and the tactis - we'll solve our midfield problems, control more possession, stop conceding sloppy goals and create / convert more chances at the other end.  Meaning we spend the whole season in / around the fight for European places.  

[nick76]

6 minutes ago, allani said:

OK again I am going to challenge you on this one.  Let's take 2020/21 as an example.  We finished with 55 points.  But I think we got 22 of those points from 12 matches before Christmas - meaning we got 33 from the remaining 26 matches.  In many ways the fact that we had a great run at the start and were up in the European places gave the impression that we were potentially ready to be the best of the rest.  Ultimately, the relative collapse in the second 2/3rds of the season is what cost Dean his job.  I think our feeling about the season would have been quite different had those two periods been reversed.  Maybe we would have felt that our season was similar to Newcastle's this season - looking all set for a relegation battle and then finishing comfortably in mid-table.  Had that happened (and Dean had avoided being sacked before) then I think the Board might just have given Dean another chance because there would have been signs (two seasons on the trot) that he was fixing problems during the season and getting improvement as time passed.

In these scenarios we would have finished on the same number of points, etc - but I think the impression of the season would have been very different.

Anyway, that isn't going to happen this season.  With our next two signings, a good pre-season, a winter break and a confident squad thriving in a common belief in each other and the tactis - we'll solve our midfield problems, control more possession, stop conceding sloppy goals and create / convert more chances at the other end.  Meaning we spend the whole season in / around the fight for European places.  

You have provided a fair point, so I adjust my argument that over period like half a season a time I agree with you.  Over periods where you win one, lose one over a smaller period of games compared to winnings three, losing four like this season, if the points are the same in total then I don’t think it matters.  

So I’m glad you have shown me something and I have adjusted my views

[The Fun Factory]

Aim to get 50 points as a minimum and at least 8-9 home wins.

Edited June 14, 2022 by The Fun Factory

[nick76]

1 hour ago, The Fun Factory said:

Aim to get 50 points as a minimum and at least 8-9 home wins.

It's such fine margins that for some reason 50 points would be so disappointing for next season.  After this poor season to only achieve 5 more points next season just doesnt feel like an achievement does it?

I know you said a minimum of 50 points and that would het us 11th this season but given we did bring in Gerrard to take us to the next level it just feels like we need to do so much more but then you look at the table and 52 points would've got us 8th, 56 points 6th if we had decent goal differences.  I think we have to aim for 60 points, that means grinding out more results otherwise what was the point of bringing in Gerrard.

[Zatman]

50 points would be a poor season, we got 55 two seasons ago with a shitter squad 

[The Fun Factory]

7 minutes ago, Zatman said:

50 points would be a poor season, we got 55 two seasons ago with a shitter squad 

That was a bit skewed with no crowds as the top teams did not perform as well as they usually do, apart from Liverpool. Other than that season we haven't hit 50 or more points since 2010  in the prem.