Summer Transfer Window 2022

[Laughable Chimp]

4 hours ago, MrBlack said:

Thanks for explaining.

I guess we still don't know the weight they apply to each metric they do use, but I felt your first point was more around it only being because we had an expensive team.

As you explain, it's also based on the most recent performance guide available for a team (I.e. last season's stats).

The fact we've shot up from 14th to 7th, and Leapfrogged a Leicester team that finished 8th and has a more expensive squad means they are definitely valuing other metrics significantly.

If you do look into the wage metric I'd be interested to know what you find out,l... as commented by another poster it is usually only something you can accurately check retrospectively, but has usually proven to be similar to how the league ended up. Any prediction using it has to be guesstimated based on assumed wages for players signed

So I looked at the finishing positions of teams in the past 3 pl seasons and then compared them to the teams position in the total wage bill table of these teams for the past 3 seasons. There is obviously a strong correlation as one would expect, but not enough to predict the finishing positions of teams with precise accuracy. On average, the finishing position of a team is different to their position in the total wage bill table by about 3.7 positions. 

I tried to use a team's position in terms of transfermarkt squad value as well to try and predict a team's final position as a point of comparison. On average, the finishing position of a team is difference to their position in the transfermarkt squad value table by about 3.5 positions. Transfermarkt squad value position was a better predicter for the 20-21 and 21-22 by worst in 19-20 compared to the total wage bill. There doesn't seem to be any significant difference between both metric's predictive power however so its safe to assume both have about equal predictive power. 

Do the results change if instead of looking at position I looked at points? Similarly, what if instead of using a team's ranking in the total wage bill table and transfermarkt squad value table, I used a team's actual total wage bill and actual squad value to predict how many points a team is expected to get. I only considered these variables for the 21/22 season(out of lazyness). In both cases, there doesn't seem to be much of a difference whether I used points or position or a team's total wage bill and squad value or their position in the wage bill and squad value table.

I was also interested in seeing which variables lead to the best prediction in terms total points at the end of the season. The best result came from using a team's squad value or squad value ranking. On average, the amount of points a team was predicted to get by using transfermarkt squad value was off by 8 points from the actual number. Whilst I didn't do the precise calculation for the 19/20 seasons and 20/21 seasons, the correlations seemed weaker suggesting that the predictions would be even worse for both wage bill and squad value meaning that this 8 points discrepancy is the best case.

Lastly the effect of an increase in total wage bill on the amount of points gained seems to decrease the higher the total wage bill. In other words, an extra 10 million dollars in the wage capacity for a club like leeds is worth more points than if it were given to a club like Man City. I suspect that there may be diminishing returns to financial investment in general in football clubs which is usually expected for most businesses but its interesting to see it in effect in terms of points instead of revenue or profit. Just thought this was an interesting observation.

 

TLDR. Wage and squad value are strongly correlated with end of season points and position but cannot predict with good precision. 

Edit: Nevermind, I **** up. The average difference between finishing position and position on wage table is actually 2.5. The average difference between finishing position and position on squad value table is 2.7. So they were better predictors than I initially thought.

 

Edited August 2, 2022 by Laughable Chimp

[Lichfield Dean]

2 hours ago, villaslash said:

So the rumour is we are signing Sigma Reproducibility as another 6. I hear he can also play as an 8. Perfect.

Is he the chap that currently plays for FC Standard de Viation?

[TheMelvillan]

Well I for one am opting for blind optimisim. I think our manager is great, I think our squad is great, I think our new signings are great. Outside the top 6 I dont think I would swap our squad for anyones. With a little bit of luck, it will all click for us, our big signings will come good, group cohesion will settle in and the manager, who has now had a pre-season, a chance to bring in his own players, get rid of some he didnt rate, will be able to really shape the team the way he wants.

I know im 42, should really know better, and have been burned before, but I cant bloomin wait for the season to start. UTV!!

[OLDVILLAIN]

6 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

Is he the chap that currently plays for FC Standard de Viation?

No..that is his brother lean sigma 6

[sir_gary_cahill]

2 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Probably @sir_gary_cahill predicting an " outstanding" season.

I think we have a great opportunity to do well this season, the squad is in good shape. We have good quality even on the bench. There is still a few weeks left of the transfer window, we have a good chance to add even more quality than we currently have. I trust Gerrard, his name alone attracts players to this club 

[GingerCollins29]

60 points plus - 6 points minimum a month. Doable

[OLDVILLAIN]

2 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said:

60 points plus - 6 points minimum a month. Doable

Except this season its not quite that simple...for example..in december we have liverpool and man city...we aint getting points in december

[DaveAV1]

3 minutes ago, OLDVILLAIN said:

Except this season its not quite that simple...for example..in december we have liverpool and man city...we aint getting points in december

I’d rather talk to your sister, she makes me feel much more optimistic. 

[CarryOnVilla]

7 minutes ago, DaveAV1 said:

I’d rather talk to your sister, she makes me feel much more optimistic. 

[Robbie09]

14 minutes ago, OLDVILLAIN said:

Except this season its not quite that simple...for example..in december we have liverpool and man city...we aint getting points in december

Possibly not however the WC may improve our chances

[Follyfoot]

38 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

So I looked at the finishing positions of teams in the past 3 pl seasons and then compared them to the teams position in the total wage bill table of these teams for the past 3 seasons. There is obviously a strong correlation as one would expect, but not enough to predict the finishing positions of teams with precise accuracy. On average, the finishing position of a team is different to their position in the total wage bill table by about 3.7 positions. 

I tried to use a team's position in terms of transfermarkt squad value as well to try and predict a team's final position as a point of comparison. On average, the finishing position of a team is difference to their position in the transfermarkt squad value table by about 3.5 positions. Transfermarkt squad value position was a better predicter for the 20-21 and 21-22 by worst in 19-20 compared to the total wage bill. There doesn't seem to be any significant difference between both metric's predictive power however so its safe to assume both have about equal predictive power. 

Do the results change if instead of looking at position I looked at points? Similarly, what if instead of using a team's ranking in the total wage bill table and transfermarkt squad value table, I used a team's actual total wage bill and actual squad value to predict how many points a team is expected to get. I only considered these variables for the 21/22 season(out of lazyness). In both cases, there doesn't seem to be much of a difference whether I used points or position or a team's total wage bill and squad value or their position in the wage bill and squad value table.

I was also interested in seeing which variables lead to the best prediction in terms total points at the end of the season. The best result came from using a team's squad value or squad value ranking. On average, the amount of points a team was predicted to get by using transfermarkt squad value was off by 8 points from the actual number. Whilst I didn't do the precise calculation for the 19/20 seasons and 20/21 seasons, the correlations seemed weaker suggesting that the predictions would be even worse for both wage bill and squad value meaning that this 8 points discrepancy is the best case.

Lastly the effect of an increase in total wage bill on the amount of points gained seems to decrease the higher the total wage bill. In other words, an extra 10 million dollars in the wage capacity for a club like leeds is worth more points than if it were given to a club like Man City. I suspect that there may be diminishing returns to financial investment in general in football clubs which is usually expected for most businesses but its interesting to see it in effect in terms of points instead of revenue or profit. Just thought this was an interesting observation.

 

TLDR. Wage and squad value are strongly correlated with end of season points and position but cannot predict with good precision. 

Edit: Nevermind, I **** up. The average difference between finishing position and position on wage table is actually 2.5. The average difference between finishing position and position on squad value table is 2.7. So they were better predictors than I initially thought.

 

[Steero113]

36 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

Is he the chap that currently plays for FC Standard de Viation?

Never see enough statistical jokes in these forums. 

[OLDVILLAIN]

11 minutes ago, Steero113 said:

Never see enough statistical jokes in these forums. 

Yes we have seemingly reached a new low today

[Lichfield Dean]

1 minute ago, OLDVILLAIN said:

Yes we have seemingly reached a new low today

Sorry guys...

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

1 hour ago, sparrow1988 said:

Yeah, I wasn't accusing mate. Just saw an oppportunity for a bit of fun and took it.

Ah ok, you actually made me feel bad for a minute. lol

 

[dubbs]

Just a quick question for the mods - could we change the "locks September 15th" to "slams shut on September 15th" 

[Vive_La_Villa]

1 hour ago, Laughable Chimp said:

So I looked at the finishing positions of teams in the past 3 pl seasons and then compared them to the teams position in the total wage bill table of these teams for the past 3 seasons. There is obviously a strong correlation as one would expect, but not enough to predict the finishing positions of teams with precise accuracy. On average, the finishing position of a team is different to their position in the total wage bill table by about 3.7 positions. 

I tried to use a team's position in terms of transfermarkt squad value as well to try and predict a team's final position as a point of comparison. On average, the finishing position of a team is difference to their position in the transfermarkt squad value table by about 3.5 positions. Transfermarkt squad value position was a better predicter for the 20-21 and 21-22 by worst in 19-20 compared to the total wage bill. There doesn't seem to be any significant difference between both metric's predictive power however so its safe to assume both have about equal predictive power. 

Do the results change if instead of looking at position I looked at points? Similarly, what if instead of using a team's ranking in the total wage bill table and transfermarkt squad value table, I used a team's actual total wage bill and actual squad value to predict how many points a team is expected to get. I only considered these variables for the 21/22 season(out of lazyness). In both cases, there doesn't seem to be much of a difference whether I used points or position or a team's total wage bill and squad value or their position in the wage bill and squad value table.

I was also interested in seeing which variables lead to the best prediction in terms total points at the end of the season. The best result came from using a team's squad value or squad value ranking. On average, the amount of points a team was predicted to get by using transfermarkt squad value was off by 8 points from the actual number. Whilst I didn't do the precise calculation for the 19/20 seasons and 20/21 seasons, the correlations seemed weaker suggesting that the predictions would be even worse for both wage bill and squad value meaning that this 8 points discrepancy is the best case.

Lastly the effect of an increase in total wage bill on the amount of points gained seems to decrease the higher the total wage bill. In other words, an extra 10 million dollars in the wage capacity for a club like leeds is worth more points than if it were given to a club like Man City. I suspect that there may be diminishing returns to financial investment in general in football clubs which is usually expected for most businesses but its interesting to see it in effect in terms of points instead of revenue or profit. Just thought this was an interesting observation.

 

TLDR. Wage and squad value are strongly correlated with end of season points and position but cannot predict with good precision. 

Edit: Nevermind, I **** up. The average difference between finishing position and position on wage table is actually 2.5. The average difference between finishing position and position on squad value table is 2.7. So they were better predictors than I initially thought.

 

So we should hopefully finish no lower than 10th?

[Peter Griffin]

4 minutes ago, dubbs said:

Just a quick question for the mods - could we change the "locks September 15th" to "slams shut on September 15th" 

And while u are at it, can we have a countdown clock too 

[rubberman]

1 hour ago, TheMelvillan said:

Well I for one am opting for blind optimisim. I think our manager is great, I think our squad is great, I think our new signings are great. Outside the top 6 I dont think I would swap our squad for anyones. With a little bit of luck, it will all click for us, our big signings will come good, group cohesion will settle in and the manager, who has now had a pre-season, a chance to bring in his own players, get rid of some he didnt rate, will be able to really shape the team the way he wants.

I know im 42, should really know better, and have been burned before, but I cant bloomin wait for the season to start. UTV!!

On the back of this astute analysis I have wagered £1 on us to win the league. Thanks!

[Laughable Chimp]

20 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

So we should hopefully finish no lower than 10th?

Considering the amount times a team has finished at least 3 positions lower than what their squad value or total wage bill predicts in the past 3 seasons,

There's a 13-22 percent probability we finish lower than 10th next season.

Edit: Actually, I probably shouldn't count teams that were predicted to finish in the bottom 3 anyway since it's impossible for them to underperform by a further 3 positions. In which case the probability jumps up to 20-25 percent.

 

Edited August 2, 2022 by Laughable Chimp