Relegation Avoidance Thread

[duke313]

Not exactly the European push we all thought we’d be.

[turvontour]

56 minutes ago, delboy54 said:

 

Here is my very pessimistic prediction based on current form of us and everyone else we are due to play...

Away lose to Brighton, 

Home Lose to Southampton (they are on form)

Away Leeds will be up for beating us

away Wet Spam at their place another loss

Arsenal at home another loss

Away to Dog heads they will beat us on current form

Home against Spuds maybe a draw

home against liverplop another loss

away to leicester maybe a draw

home to Naaaarwich Deano to beat us so another loss

Home to Palace possibly a win

Away to man city another loss (of course

Plus home and away to the thugs of Burnley are we really saying that we will get anything from either of those games?

So perhaps a max of another 5 points....so yes I am concerned about being drawn into a relegation fight as I am not sure we have the backbone for a dog fight....

VTID

Del

Haha. For the season to date, we have won about a third of our games. You're right, if we stop winning completely then we will go down.

[tom_avfc]

54 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

We won't lose all those games. We have very recently had a run of 5 points from 3 games after all. Fack knows what's happened since the break though.

At what point in that hypothetical losing run does Gerrard get sacked out of interest as that would be worse form than DS given you've got us losing 8 straight prem games.

Even under Lambert we didn't reach those depths.

 I think its an interesting point as regards to at what point Gerrard gets sacked. We've just taken 5 points from the last 7 games he has been in charge for. Dean Smith's last 7 games were worth 6 points with victories over United and Everton followed by the 5 game run of defeats against top half opposition.

Interestingly after Brighton we face the same 5 teams that beat Smith's Villa in Southampton, West Ham, Arsenal, Wolves and Tottenham (the rearranged Leeds game is tucked in there). Given that we lost all 5 of the reverse fixtures and in many cases the form of those teams has only improved as the season has gone on how many points do we really expect to pick points up in that run of fixtures. Southampton at home looks the key one to me 

Looking at it from that perspective and with a run of fixtures which includes 9 of the 11 teams above us in the next 10 games I think its easy to see us getting dragged right back into the mix come the end of April. This would leave us with fixtures against Norwich, Burnley and Palace which could suddenly become very key 6 pointers in the final weeks of the season.

[duke313]

All is it will take is a couple of wins and the mood changes again.  If we had beat Leeds, drew Newcastle and beat Watford we'd have been sitting on 33 pts with a game in hand.  Next 3 games are as crucial as the last 3, we need 6 points from that minimum.

[Marka Ragnos]

6 hours ago, delboy54 said:

 

Here is my very pessimistic prediction based on current form of us and everyone else we are due to play... …

So perhaps a max of another 5 points....so yes I am concerned about being drawn into a relegation fight as I am not sure we have the backbone for a dog fight....

VTID

Del

I don’t know. There’s something about your pessimism that makes me feel really really good. Thank you for your bleak perspective. It’s strangely edifying. And as dark as it is, at least you gave us a possible draw against Leicester. I hear the joy division song “decades” in the background of your post.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Marka Ragnos

[HanoiVillan]

5 hours ago, duke313 said:

All is it will take is a couple of wins and the mood changes again.  If we had beat Leeds, drew Newcastle and beat Watford we'd have been sitting on 33 pts with a game in hand. 

If my auntie had balls . . .

[tinker]

We just need to beat Brighton.

[VillaChris]

1 hour ago, tinker said:

We just need to beat Brighton.

I'd say we just need to draw v Brighton and Gerrard's tactics will reflect that given they didn't score v us at VP and are generally low scoring.

Think back to some of the horrible Lambert seasons and winless runs. Usually we'd draw a game or two and then grind out a win and we'd go on an o.k unbeaten run....before another scoreless 6-7 games two months later.

Three points currently feels a million miles away so Gerrard just got to show some experience and get us not to lose at least. Getting two draws in next week would be o.k for me and then we need to show up at Leeds and defend properly this time. If we can we'll get chances on the break.

We're still in o.k situation of 5 points from next 3 games and we'll be as good as safe provided we then get one more win in all the others.

Barely getting a point up to next international break and we won't just be in big trouble with the table but Gerrard's job will be under serious threat imo given they'll still be 9-10 games left so enough time for caretaker to come in.

I doubt Purslow would consider that though.

[tinker]

I would take a draw, but if we can keep a clean sheet and tighten up defensively we have the type of players who could quite easily score on the counter..... Its a dream rather than a prediction, a draw would be a good result. 

Edited February 21, 2022 by tinker

[John]

Talk of sacking a manager so soon after his appointment would even make the Watford board blush, in the same way talk of a losing relegation battle, when we are sitting 9 or 10 points clear of the bottom three, is taking pessimism a touch too far. Saturday's result and performance was a  poor one, but it is only a month ago that we were winning at Everton. SG hasn't become another Graham Turner or Billy McNeill overnight, he remains one of potentially the best young managers in the game and the one that brought us wins against Brighton, Palace, Leicester and Norwich, in his first six games with a club that had lost their previous five matches. In the same way that SG hasn't become any worse a manager so soon, our team after their new manager "bounce" has reverted to type. SG won't let our present squad tarnish his managerial record and there will be outgoings as well as incomings during the summer transfer window, that will leave him with his own squad, and with a pre-season to get them playing with the style, passion and will to win, that he will demand of them. I am confident next season will see real and sustained progress being made at Villa Park, and that progress will be made in the PL with SG at the helm. 

The current bottom three would need to double the number of points they have achieved so far, in their remaining games to reach 34 points and in Watford's case 36. If one of those clubs do hit 36 points and it's a big if, we would need three wins or nine points from our remaining 14 games, and to maintain our goal difference advantage over those clubs to finish above them. There are also another five teams that are below us, that would need to go past us. Coral presently have the present bottom three at odds on to go down and have us at 66/1 to be relegated, as was once so famously said, "Do you want to bet against us?". If so, feel free, but I can think of another eight clubs, that I would be putting my money on first and so can Coral.     

[romavillan]

10 hours ago, John said:

Talk of sacking a manager so soon after his appointment would even make the Watford board blush, in the same way talk of a losing relegation battle, when we are sitting 9 or 10 points clear of the bottom three, is taking pessimism a touch too far. Saturday's result and performance was a  poor one, but it is only a month ago that we were winning at Everton. SG hasn't become another Graham Turner or Billy McNeill overnight, he remains one of potentially the best young managers in the game and the one that brought us wins against Brighton, Palace, Leicester and Norwich, in his first six games with a club that had lost their previous five matches. In the same way that SG hasn't become any worse a manager so soon, our team after their new manager "bounce" has reverted to type. SG won't let our present squad tarnish his managerial record and there will be outgoings as well as incomings during the summer transfer window, that will leave him with his own squad, and with a pre-season to get them playing with the style, passion and will to win, that he will demand of them. I am confident next season will see real and sustained progress being made at Villa Park, and that progress will be made in the PL with SG at the helm. 

The current bottom three would need to double the number of points they have achieved so far, in their remaining games to reach 34 points and in Watford's case 36. If one of those clubs do hit 36 points and it's a big if, we would need three wins or nine points from our remaining 14 games, and to maintain our goal difference advantage over those clubs to finish above them. There are also another five teams that are below us, that would need to go past us. Coral presently have the present bottom three at odds on to go down and have us at 66/1 to be relegated, as was once so famously said, "Do you want to bet against us?". If so, feel free, but I can think of another eight clubs, that I would be putting my money on first and so can Coral.     

Yeah I don't think we'll go down either. What I don't like about our current situation though is it looks like a rebuild is on the cards in the summer, before Smith's bad run I think most of us thought one or two decent players in Jan and the same in the summer and our steady progression would continue and next season we'd be able to have a really good go at it and see how high we could finish. Smith got the boot, jury's out on Gerrard and Beale still and suddenly we're looking at squad upheaval in the summer. That brings inevitable time to settle and could go wrong.

I'd like to be as confident as you about where that leaves us and Gerrard next season. I'd say worst case we invest heavily again, it goes wrong, we have a run of form like Smith had and Gerrad gets the boot himself before Christmas. Best case is as you say Gerrard imparts his personality and winning mentality on the new look squad and we install ourselves top half of the table solidly ready for another kick on the year after. The truth will probably play out somewhere in between most likely.

Aaaaaanyway, this being the relegation avoidance thread, even if we do lose another couple I can see Gerrard going full defensive and hit on the break and we manage to do a few smash and grabs and stay safe. Hopefully he manages to get them to click and we start playing well again and creating chances. We do that and even if we give away the odd brain fart goal and chuck a couple of games away we should have enough to be clear of a relegation scrap.

[Steero113]

23 hours ago, Marka Ragnos said:

I don’t know. There’s something about your pessimism that makes me feel really really good. Thank you for your bleak perspective. It’s strangely edifying. And as dark as it is, at least you gave us a possible draw against Leicester. I hear the joy division song “decades” in the background of your post.

5 points for Gryffindor for the use of the word edifying on a football forum. 

[Tayls]

I can’t see us picking up another win this season, we just don’t have the desire to win and teams are all starting to fight now. I’m wondering if maybe 5 more draws would give us enough points to survive this season? But saying that, when was the last time all three relegated sides finished with less than  32 points? 

[AvonVillain]

On 21/02/2022 at 13:40, tom_avfc said:

 Interestingly after Brighton we face the same 5 teams that beat Smith's Villa in Southampton, West Ham, Arsenal, Wolves and Tottenham (the rearranged Leeds game is tucked in there). Given that we lost all 5 of the reverse fixtures and in many cases the form of those teams has only improved as the season has gone on how many points do we really expect to pick points up in that run of fixtures. Southampton at home looks the key one to me

Do you mean the key to getting SG sacked? That is interesting about the same run of fixtures. Are we better prepared for them now? Honestly think I'd take Smith's system for this run over Gerrard's.

[Steero113]

13 minutes ago, Tayls said:

I can’t see us picking up another win this season, we just don’t have the desire to win and teams are all starting to fight now. I’m wondering if maybe 5 more draws would give us enough points to survive this season? But saying that, when was the last time all three relegated sides finished with less than  32 points? 

This is totally over the top. 

We got 5 points from 3 games before losing these last two. 

Luck has played a massive part in these last couple of weeks, the ball bounced unfavourably for 2 of the 3 Leeds goals, we were denied an extremely dubious VAR offside for a point against Newcastle and for me the Ings incident early against Watford was a peno that would have been given by a ref who wasn't a gimp. 

Not saying we've been 2011 Barca but on another day there's 4 more points and jobs a good'un. 

Don't give me the "we won't win again this season" doom and gloom. Knowing Villa we will do a job out of the blue on Man City. It's a funny game. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Steero113

[Zatman]

15 minutes ago, Tayls said:

I can’t see us picking up another win this season, we just don’t have the desire to win and teams are all starting to fight now. I’m wondering if maybe 5 more draws would give us enough points to survive this season? But saying that, when was the last time all three relegated sides finished with less than  32 points? 

last season 29 would have kept you up

[Tayls]

11 minutes ago, Steero113 said:

This is totally over the top. 

We got 5 points from 3 games before losing these last two. 

Luck has played a massive part in these last couple of weeks, the ball bounced unfavourably for 2 of the 3 Leeds goals, we were denied an extremely dubious VAR offside for a point against Newcastle and for me the Ings incident early against Watford was a peno that would have been given by a ref who wasn't a gimp. 

Not saying we've been 2011 Barca but on another day there's 4 more points and jobs a good'un. 

Don't give me the "we won't win again this season" doom and gloom. Knowing Villa we will do a job out of the blue on Man City. It's a funny game. 

I can’t accept that we are unlucky every single week, or the refs are trying to do us over. We make our own fate. And saying on another day we’d have got those points is lovely and all, but, we haven’t got them have we.

I think we are a really bad side and it’s starting to show. I have no idea why we are unable to win a football match at the minute, particularly with a convincing victory, on paper we probably should be better than what we are.
I think we are going to struggle to win, let’s say three more games, from the remaining 14 fixtures. 

[Tayls]

16 minutes ago, Zatman said:

last season 29 would have kept you up

Insane. 

[Xela]

38 minutes ago, Tayls said:

I can’t see us picking up another win this season, we just don’t have the desire to win and teams are all starting to fight now. I’m wondering if maybe 5 more draws would give us enough points to survive this season? But saying that, when was the last time all three relegated sides finished with less than  32 points? 

We have 14 games left.

In the last 14 games, we have won 5 and drew 2. Yes, the last couple of games have been shit, but we have good players and we'll be fine. 

 

 

[Vive_La_Villa]

3 hours ago, Tayls said:

I can’t see us picking up another win this season, we just don’t have the desire to win and teams are all starting to fight now. I’m wondering if maybe 5 more draws would give us enough points to survive this season? But saying that, when was the last time all three relegated sides finished with less than  32 points? 

 

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