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Title chase 2020/2021


villalad21

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1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

They were really poor today so expect a reaction from them.  I hope we can get through this game without yellow cards for Targett and Mcginn. Really want us to be full strength against Man U. 

What about Jack? Isn’t it 4 yellows for him?

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Honestly on the top of our game we can best anyone in the league (proved that - bashed the best team in the league 7-2). I just fear for this season at least squad depth will kill any serious top tilt. Top 8 would be absolutely fantastic. 

This summer they are gonna come with their chequebooks. Make no mistake other clubs ownership will be shit scared of an upstart Villa again and will want to dismantle the team by buying all our best players. If we can hold form and there's no reason with determination that we can't, and add strongly another 4-5 either top or potential to be top players who have lost something a little bit (Traore, Barkley) then we could have something very impressive on our hands. 

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5 hours ago, MaVilla said:

I do something on the relegation thread showing this years points progress versus last year, i thought i would do something similar in here for top 6 points progression versus previous years.

Basically, top 6 points requirement since the 2014 season have been, 59, 66, 63, 69, 63, 62, this is an avg. PPG ranging from 1.6 to 1.8.

As you see by the right hand graph, our current PPG in the first 13 games, is 1.9 - meaning if we continued this progression, we would total 72 points.

Obviously i dont expect us to amass 72 points, but its interesting all the same.

 

image.thumb.png.e132a6a88c14416989eab51b6baab395.png

Can you do a similar one for top 4 (i.e. UCL qualification)? 

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For the first time i have been looking at todays fixtures hoping that all the bottom sides win!

I cant remember the last time that has happened in this division!

I like being this end of the table much more!

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8 hours ago, MaVilla said:

I do something on the relegation thread showing this years points progress versus last year, i thought i would do something similar in here for top 6 points progression versus previous years.

Basically, top 6 points requirement since the 2014 season have been, 59, 66, 63, 69, 63, 62, this is an avg. PPG ranging from 1.6 to 1.8.

As you see by the right hand graph, our current PPG in the first 13 games, is 1.9 - meaning if we continued this progression, we would total 72 points.

Obviously i dont expect us to amass 72 points, but its interesting all the same.

 

image.thumb.png.e132a6a88c14416989eab51b6baab395.png

Jim Carrey Chance GIF

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On 22/12/2020 at 14:20, Vive_La_Villa said:

With the way refs brandish yellow cards these days 5 in 19 games leading to a suspension seems very harsh to me.  We will lose Mings, Targett, Mcginn and Jack for a game at some point over the coming weeks.

I was thinking this.  The card system was presumably developed at a time where yellow cards were much much rarer. 

They are given for almost anything these days, the accumulation law definitely needs adjusting but again favours the big clubs with bigger squads so I don't expect to see anything change. 

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The next month or so will be really difficult for our squad. Pretty much 2 games a week and we just haven’t got the players to chop and change. This is where I think we will drop points.

The return of Barkley and Trez will be a boost.

Once we get in to February it’s pretty much a game a week after that. Depending on FA cup of course so hopefully can finish the season strong. 
 

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13 hours ago, PieFacE said:

I don't think come the end of the season we'll be anywhere near European places, but just the fact we're talking about it at Christmas is a huge achievement. 

To be honest mate all I wanted this season was to not be seriously concerned about relegation. So far we've exceeded all expectations, and genuinely think we can compete for 10th which would be an absolutely incredible achievement. 

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12 minutes ago, av1 said:

To be honest mate all I wanted this season was to not be seriously concerned about relegation. So far we've exceeded all expectations, and genuinely think we can compete for 10th which would be an absolutely incredible achievement. 

Absolutely agree 100%.

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37 minutes ago, HalfTimePost said:

 League Tables based on xG

 

This is definitely wrong. According to understat we have 29xG and should have conceded 12.93.

In terms of points that should be right but for instance against Sheffield we had a lower xG because we gave away a penalty but martinez saved it. So it was like 0.8 vs 0.2 which would be a win compared to 0.8vs 0.85

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