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The FFP thread


Morley_crosses_to_Withe
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There has been various mentions of FFP across the board and how it's going to affect us. 

Well this article here makes very grim reading. This isn't up to date and the figures for 15/16 were guessed, but they were very conservative and nothing like the ACTUAL losses (circa 81M).

We've also since chucked a lot of money around on transfers, failed to shed some of the real high earners (e.g. Gabby and Richards), and I can't see anything the club has done that has drastically increased our revenue. 

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The last accounts that we have for Villa (2014/15) were dreadful. There is every reason to expect the 2015/16 accounts to be similarly awful (perhaps even worse).  Villa have been saddled with an expensive wage bill and infrastructure that will be difficult to change. They also have struggled to make profits from player trading.

For purposes of illustration, I have assumed the 2014/15 figures are repeated in 2015/16. I have made a guess for the current season’s losses – looking at other similarly bloated clubs, a loss of £30m for the current season looks conservative if anything.

http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/latest-news/-profit-and-sustainability-ffp-tests-in-championship-2016-17

Basically - tl;dr - as some posters have warned, if we don't go up this season, we are well and truly screwed. 

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One of the reasons I've been so disappointed with our transfer strategy under XIa (not his fault mind).

We've spent huge sums on Championship players, huge contracts to aging players with no sell on value and it's all been very short sighted IMO.

Our squad is absolutely massive. We've got some good players by Championship standards but I doubt we have more than possibly 1 or 2 who would be regulars at PL level

The value for money for what we've spent is terrible.

If we get promoted it will be manageable, but that is a BIG if.

We've done things the exact opposite of how I hoped we would act when we got a new owner. From football people, managers, coaches, scouting down to transfer strategy and players.

Hopefully the gamble will pay off and we'll get promoted and then we can rebuild again from there.

Another huge season coming up.

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5 minutes ago, sne said:

One of the reasons I've been so disappointed with our transfer strategy under XIa (not his fault mind).

We've spent huge sums on Championship players, huge contracts to aging players with no sell on value and it's all been very short sighted IMO.

Our squad is absolutely massive. We've got some good players by Championship standards but I doubt we have more than possibly 1 or 2 who would be regulars at PL level

The value for money for what we've spent is terrible.

If we get promoted it will be manageable, but that is a BIG if.

We've done things the exact opposite of how I hoped we would act when we got a new owner. From football people, managers, coaches, scouting down to transfer strategy and players.

Hopefully the gamble will pay off and we'll get promoted and then we can rebuild again from there.

Another huge season coming up.

This specifically is the saddest part of the entire situation. We should not have to hope for a rebuild in the Premiership but it is looking that way IF we get promoted.

All we can do at this stage is wait and see how this season will transpire. 

 

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13 minutes ago, sne said:

One of the reasons I've been so disappointed with our transfer strategy under XIa (not his fault mind).

We've spent huge sums on Championship players, huge contracts to aging players with no sell on value and it's all been very short sighted IMO.

Our squad is absolutely massive. We've got some good players by Championship standards but I doubt we have more than possibly 1 or 2 who would be regulars at PL level

The value for money for what we've spent is terrible.

If we get promoted it will be manageable, but that is a BIG if.

We've done things the exact opposite of how I hoped we would act when we got a new owner. From football people, managers, coaches, scouting down to transfer strategy and players.

Hopefully the gamble will pay off and we'll get promoted and then we can rebuild again from there.

Another huge season coming up.

People want instant promotion. You don't get that by throwing stupid sums at it. The fans demands are as much a problem as the attitude towards spending. Same goes for managers. Don't win in five games and everyone calls for a sacking.

The fans are one of the biggest issues at the club IMO. We have such heightened views of Aston Villa and we unjustifiably expect instant success all the time.

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24 minutes ago, sne said:

One of the reasons I've been so disappointed with our transfer strategy under XIa (not his fault mind).

What makes you say it's not his fault? He's the owner and our only source of cash so if he's not in control of how the money is spent he has failed. Also, whose "fault" do you think it is?

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1 minute ago, briny_ear said:

What makes you say it's not his fault? He's the owner and our only source of cash so if he's not in control of how the money is spent he has failed. Also, whose "fault" do you think it is?

Of course he is in the end responsible as he is owner.

But. I think he has given the football people at the club all the resources they could ever hope for and they have not spent it wisely so far.

Now if Xia has put his trust in the wrong people, then yes of course he will bear the blame.

But I think he's done right by the club so far.

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It's almost impossible to build an accurate position of where we are. By the time we see a set of accounts, its 9 months after the prior year end, so we are just guessing at figures/positions? 

I seem to recall (could be totally wrong), that after the last set were released, our P&L in terms of day to day operations was ok, but 'player amortisation' had hit the books, plus other 'exceptional items'? 

Didn't Lerner convert a load of debt to equity as well? Was that the last accounts or the ones before? 

Its obviously a concern as it's been mention by the Doc and Wyness, but I'm not sure we are 'screwed', even if we don't go up this year. 

Edited by wazzap24
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1 hour ago, tismyk said:

NO WE ARE NOT

Good debate that. The numbers say otherwise. 

The "well and truly screwed" doesn't necessarily mean we'll be going into administration, but I can see an awful lot of belt tightening, wage bill reduction and transfers out (with very little inwards) which could, in turn, mean we're stuck floundering around in the Championship for a very, very long time.

So, well and truly screwed, maybe not, but very screwed...yes. 

Edited by Morley_crosses_to_Withe
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2 hours ago, tismyk said:

NO WE ARE NOT

We have a squad full of footballers on 30k plus with plenty of years left on their deals... and in some cases 50k plus. We have no PL money. Make no mistake, it is PL or bust this year.

Remember when Leeds' money ran out, everyone smelt blood and picked off their players for peanuts whilst Leeds continued to pay a large portion of those deals?  Yep..

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2 hours ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said:

Good debate that. The numbers say otherwise. 

The "well and truly screwed" doesn't necessarily mean we'll be going into administration, but I can see an awful lot of belt tightening, wage bill reduction and transfers out (with very little inwards) which could, in turn, mean we're stuck floundering around in the Championship for a very, very long time.

So, well and truly screwed, maybe not, but very screwed...yes. 

How do you know how much money has come into AVFC since those "numbers"?

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Xia is loaded but he isn't going to fork out 40-50m every summer for say the next 10 years until we get promoted.

I think in terms of strategy we'll continue with the short term approach and then hopefully have a more long term approach when promotion is achieved (hopefully in a years time). Keith Wyness has said as much and we certainly wouldn't be giving Terry a massive wage if we weren't making another big push to go up.

After year two parachute payments are drastically reduced, we're getting very little TV money so I do wonder what the Xia plan would be then. Probably have to sell the established players like Kodjia and Chester who'd have decent value and go for players from the lower divisions, let's hope it dosen't come to that.

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