El Zen Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, AXD said: the washington post is looking at the current votes counted. the shaded parts of the bar are the states where they are winning, so trump is currently ahead in enough states to win the EC. So as it stands, he would take Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), North Caroline (15, but this one is very close atm) and Georgia (16) =77 I am aware that the votes that are still to be counted are the votes by mail, which are more likely to be in favour of Biden (hence Trumps claim to stop counting). But as it stands, Trump is ahead. Yeah, but you can’t say it looks like he’s going to win, if the uncounted votes are likely to be in Biden’s favour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Wisconsin making an announcement in the next few minutes, this could be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AXD Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: Sure, but the point is that you don't get prizes for being 'ahead'. 'Ahead' is not a meaningful term. I fully agree, I was merely responding to the statement 'He’s looking more and more likely to lose', which in itself is also not a meaningful term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AXD Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Michelsen said: Yeah, but you can’t say it looks like he’s going to win, if the uncounted votes are likely to be in Biden’s favour. 'likely', is what we think, this is not a given. Granted, there will be a reason why Trump wants to stop counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, Michelsen said: How? Please explain. Where is he getting the necessary 57 EC votes from? Georgia - 16 NC - 15 PA - 20 could be 51 of them Wisconsin carries 10 more I've no idea if he can win those 4 but on paper and current votes it looks quite possible he could ... guess it depends how many postal votes there are in those areas to swing it back towards Biden ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ml1dch Posted November 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted November 4, 2020 Silly Americans. Everyone knows that a sensibly run election should look like this. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, AXD said: I fully agree, I was merely responding to the statement 'He’s looking more and more likely to lose', which in itself is also not a meaningful term I don't agree with that; people can make inferences about the likely nature of the votes remaining to be counted, based on where in each state the vote is missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ml1dch said: Silly Americans. Everyone knows that a sensibly run election should look like this. I know who Lord Buckethead is, but who's that weird looking guy next to him? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post villa4europe Posted November 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted November 4, 2020 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Davkaus said: I know who Lord Buckethead is, but who's that weird looking guy next to him? Think he's one of those joke candidates who just stick their name on the ballot for a laugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Did no one think to tell this woman being interviewed on Sky that Halloween was over ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 I'm liking how defensive and angry Trump seems. I'll take it as a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Zen Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, AXD said: I fully agree, I was merely responding to the statement 'He’s looking more and more likely to lose', which in itself is also not a meaningful term Yes it is. We make these assumptions about voter behaviour all the time. It’s the excact same reason why we call some states right off the bat. We can reasonably predict how people vote, within certain margins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lichfield Dean Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Why do the BBC and The Guardian have different numbers for the current number of seats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Chindie Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted November 4, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, Lichfield Dean said: Why do the BBC and The Guardian have different numbers for the current number of seats? Sky has a different number to both of them Edited November 4, 2020 by ender4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Probably worth quoting the 538 live-blog for a summary of where the remaining states are at: 'Arizona: While some outlets, such as the Associated Press, have projected Arizona for Biden, ABC News has not. Before the election, officials did warn that any super-close races might not be resolved until the last votes are counted on Thursday or Friday. However, the race isn’t that close right now (Biden 52 percent, Trump 47 percent), so we might see a projection sooner. Wisconsin: 81 percent of the expected vote is already reporting here, and the rest should trickle in over the next few hours. Earlier tonight, Milwaukee County (expected to be among the last places to finish counting) said to expect semi-final results around 6 a.m. Eastern. Georgia: The big holdup here is Fulton County, which as of 2 a.m. was home to most of the outstanding ballots. The count there was delayed by a burst pipe (no ballots were damaged), and election officials told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution their goal was to go into Wednesday with just 20,000 ballots left to count. However, the secretary of state estimated those results would not be released until the afternoon. Michigan: There are still hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots to be counted here, and it’s unclear if counting will continue throughout the night. Election officials did say earlier on Tuesday that they expected counting to wrap up by Wednesday night. Pennsylvania: Major counties such as Philadelphia and Allegheny have reported their last ballots of the night (although Philadelphia will continue to count around the clock). Going into the election, many county and state election officials predicted that results wouldn’t approach completion until Friday. North Carolina: 95 percent of the expected vote has already been counted here, so it seems quite possible that all we’re waiting on are late-arriving mail-in ballots, which have until Nov. 12 to arrive. That means we could be waiting over a week for a call here. Maine: Honestly, this is anyone’s guess. Election officials are taking much longer here than they originally expected.' from: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ (highlights mine) The main concern for Biden at this stage is the possibility of losing Wisconsin, which would make the route to victory significantly harder (he would need to win two out of Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina (unlikely), as well as Michigan). But it looks like we need to settle in for a wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Zen Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: Georgia - 16 NC - 15 PA - 20 could be 51 of them Wisconsin carries 10 more I've no idea if he can win those 4 but on paper and current votes it looks quite possible he could ... guess it depends how many postal votes there are in those areas to swing it back towards Biden ? He’s most likely to only get NC out of those. Could he win? Of course. But he probably won’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Michelsen said: Could he win? Of course. But he probably won’t. Feels very much like we're back to 10pm yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said: Why do the BBC and The Guardian have different numbers for the current number of seats? 3 minutes ago, ender4 said: Sky has a different number to both of them Haven't looked at these, but it's possible they are relying on different American media companies as to whether a race is 'called' or not; Arizona has been 'called' for Biden by Fox and AP, but not by ABC, NBC etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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