HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Fans of betting - I think Biden is more likely than not to win from this point. Betfair now has Trump as a significant favourite. DISCLAIMER: this is not regulated financial advice, and I accept no liability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: Eh, I think Biden is more likely to win than not. The Senate has been a complete car crash though, I can't disagree there. Maybe I have PTSD from 2016 but now I think Trump takes this or steals it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: The Biden tax increase is for folks who earn over $400K so er... can you lend me $500? Pretty please? I should have said very occasionally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Georgia has tightened* *(Kenneth please!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Vancvillan said: 1. He didn't pull out of middle east wars. Troop numbers in the middle east are about the same - he just moved them around. It requires maybe 30 seconds of research to confirm. 2. Democrat voters loot and burn shops when things go their way - is this a BLM comment? Because black people being oppressed and also being (mostly) Democrat voters are mutually exclusive - surely that's obvious? 3. The economy was going great for some, not for others working two jobs on zero hours contracts in a country where healthcare is privatized. Biden's "tax hike" affects only people who make above a certain threshold, and on the odd occasion that I've breached it I would have been happy to pay extra tax if it meant poor kids in my neighborhood weren't going hungry. They are unreasonable points, and as someone who has gentle ushered people toward actual facts (from Trump's own government, not MSNBC), let me say that there is a resistance to listening to the other side. I'm sure the listening part swings both ways, but the policy doesn't. Exactly, that is the discussion we should be having. Instead we get rubbish like “Trump secretly hates the troops!!” or “Trump supporters try to commit manslaughter by running Biden bus off the road!!”. And what are we going to be left with, 4 more years of Trump’s environmental vandalism and crony capitalism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Vancvillan said: I should have said very occasionally Ok , $400 is fine, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Lets be honest, if Trump wins a second term then he's a genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Genie said: Lets be honest, if Trump wins a second term then he's a genius. Yuge Genius. The best genius. Very big brain. A very stable genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: Ok , $400 is fine, thanks. Haha, Covid means I've had one of those Trump years where you don't pay tax again for a very, very long time. I'm on a Greg's and Rolla Cola budget now, so raise them taxes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, Vancvillan said: 1. He didn't pull out of middle east wars. Troop numbers in the middle east are about the same - he just moved them around. It requires maybe 30 seconds of research to confirm. 2. Democrat voters loot and burn shops when things go their way - is this a BLM comment? Because black people being oppressed and also being (mostly) Democrat voters are mutually exclusive - surely that's obvious? 3. The economy was going great for some, not for others working two jobs on zero hours contracts in a country where healthcare is privatized. Biden's "tax hike" affects only people who make above a certain threshold, and on the odd occasion that I've breached it I would have been happy to pay extra tax if it meant poor kids in my neighborhood weren't going hungry. They are unreasonable points, and as someone who has gentle ushered people toward actual facts (from Trump's own government, not MSNBC), let me say that there is a resistance to listening to the other side. I'm sure the listening part swings both ways, but the policy doesn't. This is the problem with politics around the world. 'I'm ok so **** the rest of them.' For any benefits he might bring, there are currently over 500 kids who have been separated from their parents and now are lost to them because of him. This is the kind of stuff people are voting for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: EDIT: I think the Latino turn against Democrats is probably going to be the demographic story of the election. GOP have overturned two Dem House incumbents in Miami and surroundings; okay, well you can say that these are a bit different, as the Latino vote in the area is heavily Cuban-American. But Trump also appears to be doing way better than expected in heavily Latino areas in Texas along the Mexican border. It's kind of wild that Dems finally thought they had turned Texas purple, after predicting it forever based on the increased Latino vote, only for them to lose everything they gained among white suburbanites among Latinos. Latinos who've come or whose families have come from central America, Cuba etc. loathe socialism - having seen its extreme manifestations in action. Likely they've been scared off by the extreme wing of the Dem's (I don't think Biden is a socialist btw). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, DCJonah said: This is the problem with politics around the world. 'I'm ok so **** the rest of them.' For any benefits he might bring, there are currently over 500 kids who have been separated from their parents and now are lost to them because of him. This is the kind of stuff people are voting for. Don't forget the FORCED hysterectomies on asylum seekers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Awol said: Latinos who've come or whose families have come from central America, Cuba etc. loathe socialism - having seen its extreme manifestations in action. Likely they've been scared off by the extreme wing of the Dem's (I don't think Biden is a socialist btw). The "extreme wing" that advocates for health care for everyone and a $15 per wage. How is that extreme or "Radical?" (as in the radical left) I think demanding to have an infinite number of guns and automatic weapons and denying science as extreme and radical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Ok - It's after midnight here. I'm going to bed. Sadly I think things are going to get worse before they get better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 If I was american I'd kill myself. I mean there's no point in anything anymore is there. No future no expectation of a rational path ahead. Just bleak misery and the knowledge you're neighbours are the most disgusting cretins. **** life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, TheAuthority said: The "extreme wing" that advocates for health care for everyone and a $15 per wage. How is that extreme or "Radical?" (as in the radical left) I think demanding to have an infinite number of guns and automatic weapons and denying science as extreme and radical. Antifa have been rioting for months, calling for the end of capitalism, defunding the police etc. The Dems were going around the country bailing out the people arrested for burning down mom and pop businesses. That plays well with a certain part of the electorate and disgusts the other. There's every chance Biden still wins, but given Covid the fact it's even a question shows how badly the Democrats have pitched themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Awol said: Latinos who've come or whose families have come from central America, Cuba etc. loathe socialism - having seen its extreme manifestations in action. Likely they've been scared off by the extreme wing of the Dem's (I don't think Biden is a socialist btw). I don't think that's the main dynamic though, because it doesn't explain the sudden shift since 2016. Immigration hasn't actually been that high since then. There really is a difference in eg Cuban and Venezuelan-Americans, I grant that, but language, gender and education also seem to be important divides. As far as I can see, the more male, bilingual and highly-educated you are, the more likely you are to vote Republican; the more female, Spanish-speaking and less-educated you are, the more likely to vote Democrat. And then there's the Cuban/Venezuelan more likely Republican, Mexican more likely Democrat layer on top. It's not like Latino voters are some lost cause to Democrats - they will probably still win them by a significant margin in the final tally - but they never were, are not now, and probably never will be the kind of monolithic Democrat bloc vote that African-Americans are, and the dream of taking Texas looks to me to be frankly receding a decade or two into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Everywhere has its loons, but how can a country the size of the US have circa 50% of the population voting for Trump? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: The "extreme wing" that advocates for health care for everyone and a $15 per wage. How is that extreme or "Radical?" (as in the radical left) I think demanding to have an infinite number of guns and automatic weapons and denying science as extreme and radical. I think Fox et al have done a great job of suggesting that AOC / The Squad are as powerful and influencial as say the Freedom Caucus when that just isn't true. AOC is a talented politician, but she has slightly more than zero power as things stand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Rodders said: If I was american I'd kill myself. I mean there's no point in anything anymore is there. No future no expectation of a rational path ahead. Just bleak misery and the knowledge you're neighbours are the most disgusting cretins. **** life. You need a cuddle mate. This isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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