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U.S. Presidential Election 2020


maqroll

U.S. Presidential Election 2020  

125 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins?



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Cheering thought for the day: where will be the first location where heavily-armed 'Bikers for Trump' or similar turn up, trying to storm buildings to stop the vote count?

Surely we're likely to find out not long after they wake up.

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2 minutes ago, Awol said:

The polling companies, or their methodologies, are clearly not for purpose. Whatever the result, the massive leads that were being reported for Biden in some states were nonsense. 

Such as?

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Just now, Michelsen said:

Such as?

Wisconsin, for sure. Top-rated pollsters predictions towards the end of the campaign:

  • Biden +11 (NYT)
  • Biden +7 (Emerson)
  • Biden +17 (ABC News/WaPo)
  • Biden +5 (Fox News)

Reality: Biden looks likely to lose by 1-2 points.

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8 minutes ago, Awol said:

The polling companies, or their methodologies, are clearly not for purpose. Whatever the result, the massive leads that were being reported for Biden in some states were nonsense. 

It is very difficult to poll in a electorate which is so diverse and is changing rapidly. They made changes in the weighing of votes from last time due to the massive difference in college education and voting behaviour, but things change. Trump has had gains in Latino and Black votes, which to  a outsider seems baffling. There is probably quite a lot of the voters who would not want to admit they vote Trump as it is seen as so controversial (to put it mildly)l, but then vote for him in the election. What is clear is that the Democrats will again win the popular vote and have only failed to do so once this century. It is the baffling voting system which is increasingly favouring Republicans.

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4 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Wisconsin, for sure. Top-rated pollsters predictions towards the end of the campaign:

  • Biden +11 (NYT)
  • Biden +7 (Emerson)
  • Biden +17 (ABC News/WaPo)
  • Biden +5 (Fox News)

Reality: Biden looks likely to lose by 1-2 points.

He’ll underperform, but I don’t think he’ll lose.

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2 minutes ago, Michelsen said:

He’ll underperform, but I don’t think he’ll lose.

Sure, but that doesn't diminish @Awol's point. If they have him leading by an average of 7-8 points and he wins by less than 1%, that still shows a massive flaw somewhere in how they are calculating things.

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2 minutes ago, Michelsen said:

He’ll underperform, but I don’t think he’ll lose.

Yeah, that looks like a bad prediction now, it seems like Biden might creep over the line with these last absentee and mail-in ballots. But if you want a state where the highest-rated pollsters have been way off, this is it.

I think the margins in Ohio, Florida and Texas also reflect fairly big misses TBH.

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Just now, HanoiVillan said:

Yeah, that looks like a bad prediction now, it seems like Biden might creep over the line with these last absentee and mail-in ballots. But if you want a state where the highest-rated pollsters have been way off, this is it.

I think the margins in Ohio, Florida and Texas also reflect fairly big misses TBH.

The polls had Biden up 7-8% in Pennsylvania,  too.  

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