maqroll Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Biden is enjoying a 10 point lead in national polling, but there are still four more months to go. What is your prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Biden to win the popular vote and Trump to win the electoral college. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Biden just needs to stay alive and he wins IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted July 2, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted July 2, 2020 If Trump loses he will claim that the election was rigged and corrupt. If he wins he will insist that it was completely legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Right now Biden is heavy favourite, nearly 10 points ahead in the national polls as the OP says. If that sort of margin were maintained on election day, you would expect Biden to win nearly every swing state and maybe one or two surprises as well. Of course, it might not be maintained. Per @Seat68's comment, if Trump pulled the margin back to a Biden lead of 3 or 4 points he might have an edge in the electoral college that would allow him to repeat 2016. Unwise to make strong predictions, especially after getting burned in 2016, but on balance I don't expect Trump to win at the moment. He has become even more polarising - there are few undecided voters, and the vast majority of those who do not currently support him tell pollsters they wouldn't even consider voting for him. While many Democrats are not particularly fussed about voting for Biden, they are extremely passionate about voting against Trump. Another interesting question is the down-ballot implications. It doesn't look like Republicans will win the House, but can they hang on to the Senate? In a Dem wave in 2018, Republicans nevertheless expanded their lead in the Senate. With Jones certain to lose in Alabama, they have a better chance of hanging on than might be expected. Just to be contrary, I'm going to predict a 50-50 Senate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A'Villan Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Apologies, I voted 'other' thinking this was a preference poll. Jumped the gun, my bad. Trump and the whole beast that is the USA conjures thoughts of elections being postponed indefinitely as a consequence of martial law, or even worse, the country going to war, as congress would then hold the cards on what is to come of things. But I'm sure I'm just spouting my ignorance and cynicism on the subject and not much more! It's not a prediction regards the election, but if Biden does win, the USA has some hope of systemic change, and I wonder if the voting population are ready for that in the USA, I wouldn't know. 'He has approved our undertakings' is the phrase on the back of the dollar bill which implies a God given right, and when you consider the USA's war culture, having spent 93% of her history at war, the motto 'might is right' is quite fitting and synonymous with the Latin printed on the dollar bill. Trump personifies that kind of mentality, I'm not sure Biden does. There's a long way and a many an obstacle 'til November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 It all depends of covid19. If it keeps up, Biden can stay in hiding, the economy will be in the shitter and Trump is toast. If covid19 has started to die down and the economy is bouncing back somewhat, then Trump has a chance as Biden is a walking disaster and a democratic party Bob Dole. Most importantly, it's 2020, so don't bother as there's 6 more months of chaos to come. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Trump. He's survived every scandal so far, I'm sure his brain dead cult like maniacs will sweep him to power. **** the polls now, as soon as it gets to election week / month, the usual assault on the senses in the press and through the tweets will see this corrupt **** win again. I refuse to believe he is capable of losing, certainly not gracefully. Obviously hope he loses, but he won't. It's a rigged system, and a good few million americans love and take pride in violent ignorance and stupidity, they embrace his racism etc. ****'em, but they'll win. I don't expect any decent preferable, even halfway liberal candidate in any modern country to win elections these days. The populace in so many countries is alive with frothing rabid racist words removed, anti covid illiterate words removed, anti science words removed, anti basic empathy words removed, anti nuance, pro dictatorial propaganda tribalism. words removed everywhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 It seems insane they would give Trump 4 more years, but is the country that elected him in the first place so nothing would surprise me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 I predict Trump. The nutters elected him once and Biden doesn't really seem like a good enough opponent. Voted other because I hope for a Matt Santos-type to join the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted July 2, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted July 2, 2020 Trump. The only things that will stop it are the economy absolutely collapsing in historic fashion, or him being dead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Depends on the voter turnout and which demographic turns up, polls mean little any more any but post corona turn out could be shite, depends who that favours America has somehow gone for the douche vs the turd sandwich again though, mad that Biden is so old At least they'll spend billions trying to prove the other one is worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, villa4europe said: At least they'll spend billions trying to prove the other one is worse It's the fiscal stimulus the country needs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 1 hour ago, KenjiOgiwara said: It seems insane they would give Trump 4 more years, but is the country that elected him in the first place so nothing would surprise me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted July 2, 2020 Author Share Posted July 2, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Just now, maqroll said: Simpler times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Far better than expected employment figures out today. Trump taking personal credit for it and telling people no other president in history could have done it. It’s an awkward position for some, wishing economic and medical collapse and misery on millions in the hope it causes a Biden win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 I voted "other". While Biden would win emphatically if the election were tomorrow, Trump still has a (narrow) path to victory and it's hard betting against the latter given his ability to sow and capitalise on division / fear given the current climate. All that said - it's 2020, which started with an impeachment process (remember that?) where even the concepts of lockdown orders, the economy crashing or defunding the police would have been almost impossible to explain to the majority of the electorate. And we only just passed the half way mark for the year. I'll go both candidates dead by November, so Stacey Abrams edging out Mike Pence. Oh, and **** 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Your Round Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 It seems mental that a country with a population of 331 million, the two running for control are Trump and Biden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: Far better than expected employment figures out today. Trump taking personal credit for it and telling people no other president in history could have done it. It’s an awkward position for some, wishing economic and medical collapse and misery on millions in the hope it causes a Biden win. I have absolutely zero faith in the reported numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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