villakram Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 47 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: There are far fewer undecided voters this time. For comparison: 2016 Clinton 46 Trump 40 2020 Biden 52 Trump 42 It makes a huge difference that Biden is at a higher level of support, over 50%, and that there are half the proportion of undecided voters than in 2016. My understanding of the difference between RCP averages and eg 538 is that RCP don't weight the pollsters for accuracy. I can see both sides of the argument on the value of doing so, but I think it makes more sense to distinguish between higher- and lower-quality pollsters. Yup, it's not crystal clear at all, but when an investment bank prepares their take on things, it ain't because they are trying to lose money. Biden betting on continuing to hide for the next 3 weeks is a pretty risky bet, although given his chances (or the Dems generally) were piss poor on Jan 1st, he's likely willing to run that risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
il_serpente Posted October 13, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: There are far fewer undecided voters this time. For comparison: 2016 Clinton 46 Trump 40 2020 Biden 52 Trump 42 It makes a huge difference that Biden is at a higher level of support, over 50%, and that there are half the proportion of undecided voters than in 2016. My understanding of the difference between RCP averages and eg 538 is that RCP don't weight the pollsters for accuracy. I can see both sides of the argument on the value of doing so, but I think it makes more sense to distinguish between higher- and lower-quality pollsters. This. Hillary had high negatives in 2016 and Trump's more vile side was seen as mostly bluster as he'd not yet actually done any of the bad stuff he was talking about (except grabbing women by the p*ss*). This time Biden is viewed as reasonably likeable by most people outside of Trump's base and people will already, for the most part, either have decided Trump is a bastard idiot who will not get their vote or that his "rough edges" are not enough to offset policies they like. There's not only fewer undecideds, but the odds of them breaking so overwhelmingly toward Trump are a lot lower. Trumps best shot this time, as shown by his campaign's strategy, is voter suppression and casting doubt on the outcome. My biggest fear is that a large enough percentage of mail-in ballots will be disqualified for lack of witness signature or some other technicality to make the results close enough that there's no clear winner on election day and Trump and his people can start spinning the election as corrupt and get the state and local GOP to use the levers of power to help him. Most of the close states either have a Republican governor and top state officials or control the state legislature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 10 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: There are far fewer undecided voters this time. For comparison: 2016 Clinton 46 Trump 40 2020 Biden 52 Trump 42 It makes a huge difference that Biden is at a higher level of support, over 50%, and that there are half the proportion of undecided voters than in 2016. In handy table form: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 10 hours ago, villakram said: Yup, it's not crystal clear at all, but when an investment bank prepares their take on things, it ain't because they are trying to lose money. Biden betting on continuing to hide for the next 3 weeks is a pretty risky bet, although given his chances (or the Dems generally) were piss poor on Jan 1st, he's likely willing to run that risk. Reminds me of Boris in the general election here. The only way he could lose it was by saying something stupid so he hid from every camera and microphone he could (including in fridges). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 (edited) The biggest concern was always around turnout and enthusiasm, and that the more people who voted the better it was for Biden. So stuff like this bodes well: Some places are up to nearly 50% of their total 2016 vote already. Edited October 18, 2020 by ml1dch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted October 18, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted October 18, 2020 Well if getting shot of that orange clearing in the woods doesn't motivate people to vote, nothing will. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 3 hours ago, ml1dch said: The biggest concern was always around turnout and enthusiasm, and that the more people who voted the better it was for Biden. So stuff like this bodes well: Some places are up to nearly 50% of their total 2016 vote already. Always a question though, to what extent this is simply cannibalising the election day vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 19, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted October 19, 2020 In California the Republican party has been putting dummy postal ballot boxes around the state. And they have openly said they won't stop doing it. Where this in an oil country we don't like, this kind of activity would be touted as the justification for rejecting acknowledgement of a candidate and lead the charge for calls of regime change. As is, democracy in the US is farcical. Openly chopping out as many undesirable votes as possible. Despicable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Chindie said: In California the Republican party has been putting dummy postal ballot boxes around the state. And they have openly said they won't stop doing it. Where this in an oil country we don't like, this kind of activity would be touted as the justification for rejecting acknowledgement of a candidate and lead the charge for calls of regime change. As is, democracy in the US is farcical. Openly chopping out as many undesirable votes as possible. Despicable. Without disagreeing, there is another way of looking at this, which is that while the worst practices in America are far worse than anything here, the best practices are also significantly better. Take this for example - the GOP's fake drop boxes are horrific, but it's worth remembering that in the UK we do not have any ballot drop boxes anywhere in the country, and everything has to be done by post. Similarly, in California and some other states, ballots are counted if they are postmarked by election day, even if they do not arrive in the mail until a week or more after the election. There is no equivalent in the UK. Lots of states also do same-day voter registration. It's obviously bad to have one of your two major parties be structurally dedicated to disenfranchising parts of the electorate, but one consequence is that there is a genuine back-and-forth about ballot access in the States that we do not have in this country. There have largely been no changes to make it easier to vote here for at least 20 years at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limpid Posted October 19, 2020 Administrator Share Posted October 19, 2020 7 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: Take this for example - the GOP's fake drop boxes are horrific, but it's worth remembering that in the UK we do not have any ballot drop boxes anywhere in the country, and everything has to be done by post.. I usually drop my postal vote into the polling station by hand. I have the postal vote in case I'll be away for an election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 7 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: Take this for example - the GOP's fake drop boxes are horrific, but it's worth remembering that in the UK we do not have any ballot drop boxes anywhere in the country, and everything has to be done by post. I don't think it'd be a bad thing to have them necessarily, but I also don't think there would be a huge positive. How far can you go without running in to a postbox? Why do we need completely separate infrastructure spun up for an event every few years, when the dropboxes will be far less frequent than postboxes, and likely to be in central areas that are near to a postbox anyway? I agree with the concern about delayed ballots, much less of an issue in the UK as we benefit from being much smaller and post typically arriving much quicker. What do you do if a landslide arrive days after the election though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Davkaus said: I don't think it'd be a bad thing to have them necessarily, but I also don't think there would be a huge positive. How far can you go without running in to a postbox? Why do we need completely separate infrastructure spun up for an event every few years, when the dropboxes will be far less frequent than postboxes, and likely to be in central areas that are near to a postbox anyway? I don't think they're on the kerbside all the time, though I need some actual Americans to confirm or deny that though. 1 minute ago, Davkaus said: I agree with the concern about delayed ballots, much less of an issue in the UK as we benefit from being much smaller and post typically arriving much quicker. What do you do if a landslide arrive days after the election though? They just have to be careful about calling the election! (It's true that on a presidential level, the states where this is available tend to be heavily Dem-leaning, but eg California has lots of competitive House races and they just don't call some of them for a day or three). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Trump best priced 6/4 (or 13/8 on the exchanges). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Florida, the webbed toes capital of the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 Trump has massive support throughout state and local law enforcement. Its sort of terrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 8 hours ago, maqroll said: Trump has massive support throughout state and local law enforcement. Its sort of terrifying. It’s not particularly surprising with the ‘defund the police’ message coming from the other side. If you are a member of the police you’re not likely to support that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 21, 2020 Moderator Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, LondonLax said: It’s not particularly surprising with the ‘defund the police’ message coming from the other side. If you are a member of the police you’re not likely to support that Has Biden said he wants to defund the Police? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 The polls consistently under represent right wing voters and I wouldn't be at all surprised that Trump gets reelected. The entire election boils down to about half a dozen swing states. Biden could well get 3-4 million more votes than Trump and still lose because of their ludicrous undemocratic voting system in which the most popular states are under represented in terms of electoral college votes. Four more years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 25 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: The polls consistently under represent right wing voters and I wouldn't be at all surprised that Trump gets reelected. The entire election boils down to about half a dozen swing states. Biden could well get 3-4 million more votes than Trump and still lose because of their ludicrous undemocratic voting system in which the most popular states are under represented in terms of electoral college votes. Four more years. This is still a real possibility, yes. Can pretty much rule out the possibility of Trump receiving more votes at this stage, but as you rightly say, he doesn't need to to win. I still think he will lose, but the Electoral College system is ridiculous and undemocratic, and is so whichever party it favours (unlike the Senate, which consistently over-represents Republicans by large margins, the Electoral College can and has over-represented either party, but that doesn't make it good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: This is still a real possibility, yes. Can pretty much rule out the possibility of Trump receiving more votes at this stage, but as you rightly say, he doesn't need to to win. I still think he will lose, but the Electoral College system is ridiculous and undemocratic, and is so whichever party it favours (unlike the Senate, which consistently over-represents Republicans by large margins, the Electoral College can and has over-represented either party, but that doesn't make it good). Yes, I mean our system is not great but at least all consitutency have roughly the same population. There has been a recent guardian article about this and it says that California has 1 electoral college vote per 718,000 people, Wyoming has 1 electoral college vote per 193,000 people. It is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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