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U.S. Presidential Election 2020


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U.S. Presidential Election 2020  

125 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins?



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37 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Why is that even an issue? 

That’s what I thought.

The guy in charge says when you’re famous you can do what you want, grab women by the pussy. And of course, shagging a porn star behind his wife’s back. He still managed to get the top job.

A few text messages saying he’d like to kiss someone isn’t on the same scale.

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30 minutes ago, Genie said:

That’s what I thought.

The guy in charge says when you’re famous you can do what you want, grab women by the pussy. And of course, shagging a porn star behind his wife’s back. He still managed to get the top job.

A few text messages saying he’d like to kiss someone isn’t on the same scale.

You forgot about the double standards approach where the 1 team can do all of this but the other can't and must be burnt at the stake. 

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54 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

State polls (the things that were less accurate than normal in 2016) looking pretty strong.

 

So that's a pretty big buffer, and a lot that has to be very wrong before Biden loses. 

Excuse my ignorance, are those the main swing states?  I hope it's an absolute humiliation for Trump in November.

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15 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

Excuse my ignorance, are those the main swing states?  I hope it's an absolute humiliation for Trump in November.

They are the ones with the slimmest margins, with a Biden lead. So anything larger than an 11 point Biden lead isn't shown. 

But obviously the argument could be made that Trump's four point lead in Alaska is a bigger risk to be wrong and flip than Biden's 4.4 points in Florida.

It's probably pretty safe to assume though that everything not on that quoted list will be the colour that it always goes this time as well.

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35 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

Excuse my ignorance, are those the main swing states?  I hope it's an absolute humiliation for Trump in November.

Those are the states that are closest to being the 'tipping point' state, by which is meant the state that provides the decisive margin. As @ml1dch says, there are other states with closer *margins* than some of these. A useful visualisation of this is the 'snake' chart in the middle of the page: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

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I’m not one for conspiracy theories but does anyone think Trump ‘conveniently contracted’ COVID-19 either as a last ditch attempt to generate support or laying an excuse as to why he lost the election (should that happen)?

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16 minutes ago, rayk said:

I’m not one for conspiracy theories but does anyone think Trump ‘conveniently contracted’ COVID-19 either as a last ditch attempt to generate support or laying an excuse as to why he lost the election (should that happen)?

I wouldn't put it past him but I suspect it was just down to his and his inner circle's general moronity.  I'm not sure he could blame it for a defeat anyway considering it's still a while before the election and he has been straight back out on the campaign trail.

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48 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Those are the states that are closest to being the 'tipping point' state, by which is meant the state that provides the decisive margin. As @ml1dch says, there are other states with closer *margins* than some of these. A useful visualisation of this is the 'snake' chart in the middle of the page: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Cheers, I got a bit confused then remembered the blues and reds are the opposite way round over there.  The data all looks pretty good for Biden at the moment.

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42 minutes ago, rayk said:

I’m not one for conspiracy theories but does anyone think Trump ‘conveniently contracted’ COVID-19 either as a last ditch attempt to generate support or laying an excuse as to why he lost the election (should that happen)?

You think the rest of the WH staffers that have it is fake too?

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21 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

Cheers, I got a bit confused then remembered the blues and reds are the opposite way round over there.  The data all looks pretty good for Biden at the moment.

Yeah, he's in a much better position than Clinton was.

Basically, two ways Trump can still win:

  1. A very large polling error, one of the largest in history;
  2. The polls tighten over the next 3 weeks, then a more realistic sized polling error such as 2016

Nothing can be counted out, and a 13% chance of winning (per that forecast) is not the same as a 0% chance of winning, but obviously it's not looking great for him at the moment.

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13 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Yeah, he's in a much better position than Clinton was.

Basically, two ways Trump can still win:

  1. A very large polling error, one of the largest in history;
  2. The polls tighten over the next 3 weeks, then a more realistic sized polling error such as 2016

Nothing can be counted out, and a 13% chance of winning (per that forecast) is not the same as a 0% chance of winning, but obviously it's not looking great for him at the moment.

I still wouldn't completely rule out (3) some sort of mass voter intimidation / suppression / ballot destruction/ martial law declaration. He's that nuts after all and when he accepts that he's likely going to get a hammering there are probably unimaginable levels of crazy he could resort to. 

Fortunately the margin is looking like it might be wide enough that even that wouldn't work though.

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52 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

I wouldn't put it past him but I suspect it was just down to his and his inner circle's general moronity.  I'm not sure he could blame it for a defeat anyway considering it's still a while before the election and he has been straight back out on the campaign trail.

Oh it’s perfect for him. He can now play the comeback kid, the underdog etc which he loves.

And if he loses then it’s well a ‘heroic fail’ for him.

Remember ego drives everything he does.

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