Generic Virus Thread

[LondonLax]

13 minutes ago, Awol said:

Interesting take here from Von der Leyen. Obviously she’s trying to explain away the Commission’s failure on vaccines but it doesn’t make her/them look great - imo. 

 

It does make some sense though that vaccinating 450m is going to be a tougher task than 65m people. The UK jumped out of the gates early thanks to its emergency approvals and it has worked out well but we discussed at length on here the likelihood of logistical problems with the shear size of the task of vaccinating the worlds population. 

[sidcow]

16 minutes ago, Awol said:

Interesting take here from Von der Leyen. Obviously she’s trying to explain away the Commission’s failure on vaccines but it doesn’t make her/them look great - imo. 

 

It's a frickin big speedboat with 10m people in it and counting. 

[Genie]

Do we think had we voted remain we would have joined the EU vaccination programme, or gone it alone as we have done?

[Awol]

7 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

It does make some sense though that vaccinating 450m is going to be a tougher task than 65m people. The UK jumped out of the gates early thanks to its emergency approvals and it has worked out well but we discussed at length on here the likelihood of logistical problems with the shear size of the task of vaccinating the worlds population. 

That's true, but not solely about emergency approvals. The UK obviously moved much faster in terms of securing vaccines (the size of the EU market was no benefit when they faffed around at the decision making stage) but the UK regulator also reviewed data on a rolling basis, whereas the EMA waited until it was all delivered in a nice big bundle before getting down to it. 

Seems to me she's making the case for the EU being a good model when sheer weight of numbers is an advantage, eg. in a slow and deliberative process, but in a crisis the freedom to move quickly and decisively is very helpful - the OODA loop argument.  

Obviously that freedom doesn't help if you make the wrong decisions.. treating a coronavirus outbreak like pandemic flu, for example.

[darrenm]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

Do we think had we voted remain we would have joined the EU vaccination programme, or gone it alone as we have done?

I don't think a UK gov still in the EU would have been able, politically, to resist joining in with the EU vaccination programme. And I think we would now be subject to the same delays but we wouldn't have an 'us' showing that it could be done a lot quicker.

I can't help thinking that leaving the EU has saved quite a few thousand lives in the UK in that respect. We're probably forcing the EU to act quicker than they would have done, too, perhaps saving lives there.

Obviously all of the other negative effects of leaving the EU aren't part of this thinking.

[snowychap]

1 hour ago, lapal_fan said:

How are you feeling about the vaccine now Snowy?

Like you, I was unsure about receiving it (until more needy people had had theirs and I could see the potential effects) - but I'd be happy to have one now if offered.

Just wondering if you've made a decision either way?

I think my main issue (on a purely personal level), if offered a shot now, would be which one and on what basis, i.e. is it as per the trialled regimen, &c.

On a wider level, I'm quite sanguine about being way down the line for any sort of vaccination as I think it's probably much more important to get both doses done (for certain vaccines in particular) for those in the most vulnerable groups so I would prefer this to be done than for me to be offered a first shot. Obviously that's in to arguments about transmission but the data, even allowing for some reports, isn't as clear cut on that as the efficacy with regard to serious disease/hospitalisation. It's also in to an argument about a national/regional approach, too. I think there's a very good argument that I should be lower down the list than vulnerable people in other areas and that's not just as a moral case but also, potentially, as a practical response to denying the virus as much opportunity as possible to mutate and for mutations to combine to dent the effectivenesss of existing vaccines.

What I really don't want to see is a scenario where the UK vaccinates its entire population with current vaccines that are very effective against the original virus, may maintain a good deal of effectiveness against initial variants but may also struggle against one or two others, pat itself on the back for a job well done by the middle of the summer, have a couple of months of clear water and then for other areas of the world to become the lab for various combinations of mutations (as is already seemingly happening according to a PHE report from the middle of last month) which enables the virus to evade at least some of the already acquired immunity from the initial round of vaccinations. We'd be back to square one and I don't think it would just be like a 'flu booster for some of the population, I'd suggest that we'd go through the same or similar scenarios as now and the effect would be really bad (on morale, nascent economic recovery, &c.).

I accept, obviously, that any personal decision I make is going have no effect on national/international policy with regards to vaccine rollouts.

 

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

37 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

It does make some sense though that vaccinating 450m is going to be a tougher task than 65m people.

We all knew that,  the logical thing to do was to allow countries to do it themselves ?

It was never going to work.  She should have known this.  I did.  Then then sharing within the EU could have taken place at the least,  better than what they have now.

NL has vaccinated about 12 people so far and deleted or lost that list already by the way 

[Genie]

9 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

We all knew that,  the logical thing to do was to allow countries to do it themselves ?

I don’t think that would have worked either. It would be like an eBay auction with billionaires, they’d still be bidding now.

In principle the EU idea is good, it just hasn’t been executed well enough.

 

[Awol]

The other thing that Oxford Uni and AZ deserve massive credit for is the partnering agreement they’ve made to ensure their vaccine is produced worldwide. 

I used to live in Oman and heard they’re expecting about 250,000 AZ doses shortly, from India. UK gov has done right paying to set up a separate production run at home to ensure secure supply, but clearly the idea that the world needs vaccinating too is at the centre of the planning. 

Hopefully Dublin will agree to let the UK help out with vaccines outside the EU vaccination programme ASAP. If the worst happens and a mutation elsewhere escapes the vaccines then borders will slam shut everywhere this time. With a common border in Ireland that can’t be shut for political reasons, it makes sense to have a bio-secure zone that covers the entire British Isles if necessary.

[sidcow]

The Government are openly saying that they are aiming to get all over 50s done by end of May. 

By my maths at the current rate they should be done a long way before then. 

Is there a known interruption to supply on the way or is this them just downplaying it?  

[Davkaus]

I'm, very interested to know the answer to that. Recognising past failures to deliver, and deciding to under-promise and over-deliver instead displays a degree of foresight, introspection and competence that I wouldn't have expected from this government, so credit where it's due if they're actually learning. 

[TrentVilla]

3 hours ago, Genie said:

Do we think had we voted remain we would have joined the EU vaccination programme, or gone it alone as we have done?

Yes I think we would have joined

[TrentVilla]

16 minutes ago, sidcow said:

The Government are openly saying that they are aiming to get all over 50s done by end of May. 

By my maths at the current rate they should be done a long way before then. 

Is there a known interruption to supply on the way or is this them just downplaying it?  

Not done maths but would be surprised if they manage that with two doses

[blandy]

18 minutes ago, sidcow said:

The Government are openly saying that they are aiming to get all over 50s done by end of May. 

By my maths at the current rate they should be done a long way before then. 

Is there a known interruption to supply on the way or is this them just downplaying it?  

They're saying all over 50s offered the vaccine by end May.

They've got to double tap all the ones already done, obviously, so it seems about right at the current rate.

[chrisp65]

Third consecutive day of zero cases in my council area. Eighteen cases across the whole county. 

Schools starting phased reopening 22nd Feb.

 

AND it was still light at 5:30 this evening.

[sidcow]

5 minutes ago, blandy said:

They're saying all over 50s offered the vaccine by end May.

They've got to double tap all the ones already done, obviously, so it seems about right at the current rate.

But they are leaving a 12 week gap for the second jabs. 

They've already done over 500k.

Due to the slow roll out and eventual build up they had only done just over 1m first Jabs by 5th January. 

So they only need to start the second Jabs in earnest after 5th April and they will be easily keeping pace with them for another few weeks after that. 

The numbers they are jabbing daily now I think they will get there way way quicker than end of May. 

[bannedfromHandV]

9 minutes ago, sidcow said:

But they are leaving a 12 week gap for the second jabs. 

They've already done over 500k.

Due to the slow roll out and eventual build up they had only done just over 1m first Jabs by 5th January. 

So they only need to start the second Jabs in earnest after 5th April and they will be easily keeping pace with them for another few weeks after that. 

The numbers they are jabbing daily now I think they will get there way way quicker than end of May. 

Perhaps for once they’re actually being smart about it and underpromising to over deliver rather than the other way round

[sidcow]

2 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Perhaps for once they’re actually being smart about it and underpromising to over deliver rather than the other way round

It's the only explanation for me, unless there is going to be a slowdown. 

[bickster]

 

[trekka]

Our World in Data

Interesting to see the peaks and troughs in this - whilst our supply seems continuous, it doesn't look to be the same in Israel (admittedly the difference in scale is huge).  Is it supply or is it just the way they are getting them out of the door so to speak? 

Edited February 5, 2021 by trekka