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Generic Virus Thread


villakram

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1 hour ago, sidcow said:

All this talk about AZ not protecting well the South African version, you just know people are now going to refuse to take it, leaving them exposed to 99% of the danger because they are worried about the 1% 😦

*A lot* of bad and misleading headlines about this :(

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Just now, Genie said:

It’s getting a kicking at the moment.

No good on the SA variant.

No good on over 65’s

Boris and co need to pull out the data that shows it being effective in those vaccinated since Christmas.

Or, could it possibly be that in their haste to finally be ‘world-beating’ at something, the government rushed out this vaccine and approved it a little prematurely......I mean surely this government, with its fantastic track record couldn’t possibly have dropped the ball could they?

 

Honestly, I’d say it’s likely, I hope to be proved wrong but I’ve been sceptical of everything and anything this government has said and done since it was installed and the vaccination programme was running far too well.

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4 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

It is not 'no good' in either of those cases. One study has suggested that it does not prevent *mild to moderate* cases for most people when infected with the SA variant. I don't know what to tell people, but the purpose of the vaccination program is to prevent hospitalisations and deaths, ie severe cases, not to ensure that nobody ever gets ill again. The purpose of the flu jab is not to prevent anyone anywhere in the world from getting a mild case of the flu.

Yeah, I agree. My worry is how quickly certain things stick in the mind and it’s extremely difficult to shake off (big red bus).

If it’s not careful the Oxford/AZ jab could get the reputation as the shit one that doesn’t really work. 
Hopefully the spin doctors are ready with the facts.

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With regard to the SA variant and the vaccine’s effectiveness in combatting it, in my simplistic mind, I’m comparing it to people who have a flu jab. While they’re better protected against the flu, it doesn’t mean they won’t get a cold that winter.

But I don’t know. Is that sort of the issue here?

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As I understand it, the Oxford vaccine is very effective for all age groups. So the over-65 restrictions in any other countries is pointless.

But it looks like it's not very good at all against the SA variant but there's reason to believe that it'll still work to an extent at reducing severe cases because other vaccines which use the same technology also do.

I think that's why the UK gov are taking the SA variant seriously. If they can keep that under control then our huge amount of Oxford vaccine can carry on being used.

If that variant escapes then it gets awkward. Oxford/AZ will have to update it which will put everything back a few months on that side while we're back to being reliant on the EU's good nature for importing Moderna, Pfizer and others.

But the data on these SA variant studies are very small and incomplete. The picture should become clearer soon.

This Lancet piece about the Sputnik vaccine is good because it describes some of the differences. Apparently the Russian Sputnik is currently the most effective vaccine. If we end up using that I wonder what the uptake in Salisbury will be.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00191-4/fulltext

Quote

Also known as Gam-COVID-Vac, the vaccine uses a heterologous recombinant adenovirus approach using adenovirus 26 (Ad26) and adenovirus 5 (Ad5) as vectors for the expression of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein. The use of two varying serotypes, which are given 21 days apart, is intended to overcome any pre-existing adenovirus immunity in the population.2 Among the major COVID vaccines in development to date, only Gam-COVID-Vac uses this approach; others, such as the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine, use the same material for both doses.

 

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Jean Claud Van Tam saying we’ll all probably need an autumn booster to give protection for the SA variant (which is under development already). 50m doses already ordered.

Also mentioned we have 400m vaccines on order already (not including the extra 50m). 

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2 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Or, could it possibly be that in their haste to finally be ‘world-beating’ at something, the government rushed out this vaccine and approved it a little prematurely......I mean surely this government, with its fantastic track record couldn’t possibly have dropped the ball could they?

Absolutely 100% not. 

It does exactly what it's supposed to do. 

It (initially) doesn't seem to be so hot on a mutation it was never designed for and some foreign nations are getting into a tizz about lack of trial data on older people, there is absolutely no evidence it doesn't work on older people, it's just not been substantiated yet, but there is absolutely no reason to think it won't. 

It's going to save probably hundreds on thousands of lives across the globe. And probably stop millions getting seriously ill. 

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22 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Absolutely 100% not. 

It does exactly what it's supposed to do. 

It (initially) doesn't seem to be so hot on a mutation it was never designed for and some foreign nations are getting into a tizz about lack of trial data on older people, there is absolutely no evidence it doesn't work on older people, it's just not been substantiated yet, but there is absolutely no reason to think it won't. 

It's going to save probably hundreds on thousands of lives across the globe. And probably stop millions getting seriously ill. 

We hope.

Forgive my pessimism but the government could tell me there are seven days in a week and I’d find it hard to believe.

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5 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

We hope.

Forgive my pessimism but the government could tell me there are seven days in a week and I’d find it hard to believe.

The Government didn't make it and the Government didn't check it's efficacy, and they didn't peer review the findings of the clinical trial. 

Disbelieve all you like.  It will be saving lives regardless of what you think. 

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2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

It is not 'no good' in either of those cases. One study has suggested that it does not prevent *mild to moderate* cases for most people when infected with the SA variant. I don't know what to tell people, but the purpose of the vaccination program is to prevent hospitalisations and deaths, ie severe cases, not to ensure that nobody ever gets ill again. The purpose of the flu jab is not to prevent anyone anywhere in the world from getting a mild case of the flu.

The trouble is if the virus is not halted by vaccines and can spread as a ‘mild’ case it will be free to mutate immunity to vaccine and we will be forever in an arms race against it (which is probably the likely outcome unfortunately). If any of the vaccine resistant mutations also turn out to be as deadly we’ll be back to square one.

Probably the best case scenario is countries can eliminate it with a successful vaccine program and even though it mutates abroad in places with less successful programs quarantining arrivals from danger hot spots can occur until reformulated vaccines can be developed to properly combat those as well.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, blandy said:

They're not, according to medics. They've had the first part of their two part vaccination.

What is the definition of ‘vaccinated’? You’re ‘vaccinated’ after one shot (i.e. you have received a vaccine) but we’re better protected once we get a booster shot. It sounds like some people will need a third shot this year to be better protected against specific strains and in all likelihood we’ll all need on going booster shots in the coming years as different strains emerge. 

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9 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

What is the definition of ‘vaccinated’? You’re ‘vaccinated’ after one shot (i.e. you have received a vaccine) 

It's (they're - AZ/Modena/Pfizer etc.) a 2 dose vaccine. When you've had both doses, you've been vaccinated. For all but the AZ one, the second does provides a different immunity - something to do with long lasting and short lasting anti-bodies. I'm sure you (anyone can google it). Doctors have been clear that "vaccinated" is once both doses are recieved.

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