18/19 Race for Promotion

[dont_do_it_doug.]

6 hours ago, Cjay said:

Whats Bielsa's wages got to do with it? 

"Dirty Leeds" i wasnt even born when that became a thing. We lost the 2nd leg because we bottled it (nothing to do with dirty).

Bamford is soft as shite and has a reputation now same as Ollie Watkins at Brentford who Dean Smith never ever admitted was a cheating sod.

You lost the 2nd leg because you lacked discipline. Both tactically and because you had a man sent off for being dirty. 

[thejoker]

I can’t believe we’ve still got 8 days to wait. It seems like an age ago since we beat West Brom. 

I get butterflies every time I think about the final. I think I'm more nervous than last year because we are favourites. 

I’ll be gutted if we lose the final again, we’ve just got to win.

[meregreen]

Read somewhere that 86% of clubs who return to Wembley after losing the previous play off final.........win

[thejoker]

5 minutes ago, meregreen said:

Read somewhere that 86% of clubs who return to Wembley after losing the previous play off final.........win

It would be such a Villa thing to do - get to two playoff finals....and lose them both.

[TRO]

18 hours ago, A'Villan said:

Because football requires a team to penetrate past the lines of opposition and put the ball inside the posts.

Even at a standstill, two lines of four men cover just under half the goal line for width and height.

With their arm span at full width, those two lines cover double the space between the goal posts.

With one leg outstretched, eight men of average height (6ft) cover nearly exactly the width of the goal (10cm short).

Without wanting to go on a huge tangent about the space covered by our opponents once we reach the final third, and how it relates to difficulty to score..

You can see through basic math and stats that when an opposition has one or even two lines of defenders, added to that a goalkeeper..

When all are standing between the ball and the goal, and are able to anticipate and react to the movement before attackers reach their intended target..

It makes the angles and space allowed for a successful attempt at goal quite minimal. This is why we see so few successful attempts in proportion to total attempts.

An average for the best player for 'key passes' made, from any given team, generally makes up for about 1% of a teams total passes made.

This is probably why, statistically speaking, direct play yields a higher goal rate per pass made over possession football, because lines of defending are surpassed quicker..

This is probably why crosses, again, statistically, yield the highest chance of creating a goal from open play, because lines of defenders can be outdone by skilled delivery and runs.

 

 

 

I would say judging by the FA cup final (where Watford adopted a similar approach to Albion)...........That Man city have far better quality in numbers to unlock defences....Their first touch and ball control is mind blowing, not to mention the sublime passing and timely decision making.

Edited May 19, 2019 by TRO

[TRO]

On 18/05/2019 at 13:14, Cjay said:

I think you'll beat Derby.

Still very bitter two lucky barstewarding teams.

The media narrative the Lampard beat us is nonsense.

They played better in the 2nd half, Lampard got them to push forward more but until Cooper and Casilla had a total meltdown they were going nowhere.

Cooper then gave them a pen and Berardi got sent off, we lost our heads (same as vs Wigan).  Derby arent a bad side but by quite a way the weakest in the playoffs imo (which is what annoys me most)

But yes I'd be very surprised if you dont beat Derby as against our injury ravaged side we still had to hand it to them they couldn't take it.

I think Derby will suit Villa and vice Versa.

I think the 2 physically strongest teams went out for the very reason.....they relied on it too much and it caught up with them....Injuries can be bad luck, but they can also be a result of how a team plays....its a trade off.

Personally, I think some of your players, similar to Albion have a clattering style of defensive work and is liable to turn a game in to a war as opposed to a game of football....I hope I am not being too harsh, but that is my take, as Opposed to Norwich who seem more intent on playing/working the ball.

I also think Leeds and Albion showed an element of desperation (to go up), in their play an additional element of the above comments. The Cooper & Casilla moment was an epitome of that creating a reckless moment that I agree did derail you.

When you say Derby was the weakest....it depends what weakest means? physically you might be right, perhaps us next, because we are not physically blessed either....but both teams have the ability to create quality moments.

The final will be a close encounter and of course I want Villa to win.....but I hope the best footballing team wins.

Finally, Leeds are a good team in many ways, wish we had full backs with the intensity of Ayling, but with a bit more composure and humility, Leeds could go far....... and you will be back challenging next season.I just hope once again a footballing team wins the thing.

Edited May 19, 2019 by TRO

[romavillan]

3 minutes ago, TRO said:

I think Derby will suit Villa and vice Versa.

I think the 2 physically strongest teams went out for the very reason.....they relied on it too much and it caught up with them....Injuries can be bad luck, but they can also be a result of how a team plays....its trade off.

Personally, I think some of your players, similar to Albion have a clattering style of defensive work and is liable to turn a game in to a war as opposed to a game of football....I hope I am not being too harsh, but that is my take, as Opposed to Norwich who seem more intent on playing/working the ball.

I also think Leeds and Albion showed an element of desperation to go up, in their play an additional element of the above comments. The Cooper & Casilla moment was an epitome of that creating a reckless moment that I agree did derail you.

When you say Derby was the weakest....it depends what weakest means? physically you might be right, perhaps us next, because we are not physically blessed either....but both teams have the ability to create quality moments.

The final will be a close encounter and of course I want Villa to win.....but I hope the best footballing team wins.

Finally, Leeds are a good team in many ways, wish we had full backs with the intensity of Ayling, but with a bit more composure and humility, Leeds could go far....... and you will be back challenging next season.I just hope once again a footballing team wins the thing.

Pretty fair assessment that, refs down here should grow some balls and protect players. All season it's been like the 80s, seems you are allowed "one for free" to say hello and a "reducer" only gets you a yellow. That's bollocks IMO and hurts the game, it allows more physical teams an advantage and is bad for good footballing sides. We got openly bullied by Leeds and Albion and the officials did nothing about it. I read @OutByEaster? 's post about the semi final, and I don't think him thinking that Albion should have had 8 or 9 more cards of the two legs is an exaggeration by any stretch. 

Agree also that that sort of football causes injuries both to the perpetrator and the victims, Gazza ruined his career by going in like a clearing in the woods with a reckless challenge, football is full of people going in too hard and ending up hurting themselves. Just accumulating knocks over a season played like that will **** you up.

We're favourites against Derby and we will have to deal with that, in a lot of ways Lampard's team talk is a lot easier he's just got to play on the underdog thing and he should get a reaction. We have to play the expectation and the occasion as much as Derby. Hopefully it'll be a good open game as that's what will suit us best, that said if Lampard tries to play it cagey he'll be hurting their chances as I don't think they are capable of that really. 

Who knows, this waiting will kill me! 

[AvfcRigo82]

59 minutes ago, TRO said:

I would say judging by the FA cup final (where Watford adopted a similar approach to Albion)...........That Man city have far better quality in numbers to unlock defences....Their first touch and ball control is mind blowing, not to mention the sublime passing and timely decision making.

I can't wait until that is us in a few seasons   

[AvfcRigo82]

I cannot contain it and the confidence that is still flowing for this final.

I really think it is ours if we do the job properly and don't f**k about.

We have breathed the living shite into teams in this upper half going on the run we went on.

The team we currently have and a fully fit squad too - this is our best and only chance to do this.

Monday cannot come quick enough. I am not wanting to come across as arrogant or cocky but it's ours to lose.

[TRO]

4 minutes ago, romavillan said:

Pretty fair assessment that, refs down here should grow some balls and protect players. All season it's been like the 80s, seems you are allowed "one for free" to say hello and a "reducer" only gets you a yellow. That's bollocks IMO and hurts the game, it allows more physical teams an advantage and is bad for good footballing sides. We got openly bullied by Leeds and Albion and the officials did nothing about it. I read @OutByEaster? 's post about the semi final, and I don't think him thinking that Albion should have had 8 or 9 more cards of the two legs is an exaggeration by any stretch. 

Agree also that that sort of football causes injuries both to the perpetrator and the victims, Gazza ruined his career by going in like a clearing in the woods with a reckless challenge, football is full of people going in too hard and ending up hurting themselves. Just accumulating knocks over a season played like that will **** you up.

We're favourites against Derby and we will have to deal with that, in a lot of ways Lampard's team talk is a lot easier he's just got to play on the underdog thing and he should get a reaction. We have to play the expectation and the occasion as much as Derby. Hopefully it'll be a good open game as that's what will suit us best, that said if Lampard tries to play it cagey he'll be hurting their chances as I don't think they are capable of that really. 

Who knows, this waiting will kill me! 

I agree totally.

On the Favourites......I don't think Dean will fall for that old chesnut and he will be telling the players accordingly.

Derby have had a formidable last game and their form guide is on par with ours depending on how many games back are considered.....Dean will be reminding our lads of that and any repeat of last years showing will dump us out once again.

Application is key, no passengers, no sight seers.....total commitment from all.

[A'Villan]

1 hour ago, TRO said:

I would say judging by the FA cup final (where Watford adopted a similar approach to Albion)...........That Man city have far better quality in numbers to unlock defences....Their first touch and ball control is mind blowing, not to mention the sublime passing and timely decision making.

The point was merely that the odds are not in favour of the attacking team to score at each attempt. Your Manchester City example is apt.

City scored 6 goals from 23 attempts at goal. That's 25% conversion. In a cup final, that's about as good a victory as you'll see.

City created a shot every 4 minutes for the entire 90 minutes. That's uncommon even for a team dominating a tie, and shows the disparity between the opponents.

Earlier we saw Liverpool lose 3-0 to Barcelona, a scoreline that flattered the Catalans. 2nd leg comes around and Liverpool win 4-0 to record one of the all-time great comebacks.

People are touting it as the greatest ever comeback in Champions League history, because no one expected Liverpool to overturn their deficit.

This time the margins were in Liverpool's favour, and the result may seem to indicate that their was a dominant side in each game, when the chances in both were of similar quality.

In order to successfully penetrate the lines of the opposition, attacking players must use the gaps, create space, work angles and have the skill to execute. We agree.

Off-the-ball movement is equally crucial to unlocking defense and creating chances that can be finished. It's what made Barca the anomaly for passing sequences used in build up.

Without the work of teammates putting themselves in purposeful positions, the man on the ball becomes the sole option, and those odds of scoring at each attempt get slimmer.

[TRO]

13 minutes ago, A'Villan said:

The point was merely that the odds are not in favour of the attacking team to score at each attempt. Your Manchester City example is apt.

City scored 6 goals from 23 attempts at goal. That's 25% conversion. In a cup final, that's about as good a victory as you'll see.

City created a shot every 4 minutes for the entire 90 minutes. That's uncommon even for a team dominating a tie, and shows the disparity between the opponents.

Earlier we saw Liverpool lose 3-0 to Barcelona, a scoreline that flattered the Catalans. 2nd leg comes around and Liverpool win 4-0 to record one of the all-time great comebacks.

People are touting it as the greatest ever comeback in Champions League history, because no one expected Liverpool to overturn their deficit.

This time the margins were in Liverpool's favour, and the result may seem to indicate that their was a dominant side in each game, when the chances in both were of similar quality.

In order to successfully penetrate the lines of the opposition, attacking players must use the gaps, create space, work angles and have the skill to execute. We agree.

Off-the-ball movement is equally crucial to unlocking defense and creating chances that can be finished. It's what made Barca the anomaly for passing sequences used in build up.

Without the work of teammates putting themselves in purposeful positions, the man on the ball becomes the sole option, and those odds of scoring at each attempt get slimmer.

Yeah....One of the reasons that I talk about work rate .....despite Man City & Liverpools uncanny skills, they both work like Trojans.

I am not foolish enough to compare us with Man City, carte blanche, but more referring to the principle of breaking teams down.....I think we could compare with Norwich, who play like a poor mans "City" IMO

Edited May 19, 2019 by TRO

[New_Hope]

We are now ready for a return to the top flight and all this in the space of a season.  I remember Graham Taylor saying that when you get it right, big clubs can turn around very quickly.

This time last year, i didn't think we were ready.  We would have done a Fulham but with poor antiquated  Bruceball and poor infrastructure, management and forward planning.

Now, we have good football being coached and implemented with Purslow pulling the management strings and forward planning looks to be put in place too.

I'm excited and this week is going to be a long week!

[May-Z]

 

[A'Villan]

54 minutes ago, TRO said:

I agree totally.

On the Favourites......I don't think Dean will fall for that old chesnut and he will be telling the players accordingly.

Derby have had a formidable last game and their form guide is on par with ours depending on how many games back are considered.....Dean will be reminding our lads of that and any repeat of last years showing will dump us out once again.

Application is key, no passengers, no sight seers.....total commitment from all.

This.

We are favourites because what has come to pass is a 7-0 scoreline between us and Derby.

And because of the perception that securing a playoff place sooner equates to superiority.

Derby will have to do more soul-searching than us to find a way to come out on top of this fixture.

That, in my mind, doesn't mean they are any less likely to come out on top.

It just means that they must change the dynamic from what has come previously, to something that can provide.

[villalad21]

3 hours ago, meregreen said:

Read somewhere that 86% of clubs who return to Wembley after losing the previous play off final.........win

Ok, now i'm worried.

[villalad21]

In my opinion Mason Mount is well on par with Grealish. If we stop him we stop Derby.

[TRO]

3 hours ago, thejoker said:

I can’t believe we’ve still got 8 days to wait. It seems like an age ago since we beat West Brom. 

I get butterflies every time I think about the final. I think I'm more nervous than last year because we are favourites. 

I’ll be gutted if we lose the final again, we’ve just got to win.

We will go up Auto, next season....Relax.

[TRO]

its been said that they didn't have Mason Mount for our games against them.

But wasn't John McGinn missing for us.......also Jack was out for ( other games) ages too.

[TRO]

1 hour ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

I cannot contain it and the confidence that is still flowing for this final.

I really think it is ours if we do the job properly and don't f**k about.

We have breathed the living shite into teams in this upper half going on the run we went on.

The team we currently have and a fully fit squad too - this is our best and only chance to do this.

Monday cannot come quick enough. I am not wanting to come across as arrogant or cocky but it's ours to lose.

I think Albion and Leeds thought that.